Nowcasting COVID-19 statistics reported with delay: A case-study of Sweden and the UK

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Altmejd, AdamHandelshögskolan i Stockholm,Stockholm University,Stockholm School of Economics (författare)

Nowcasting COVID-19 statistics reported with delay : A case-study of Sweden and the UK

LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:umu-205494
https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-205494URI
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043040DOI
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/eafac833-cabb-44df-b29c-ec9ae992cf87URI
https://research.hhs.se/esploro/outputs/journalArticle/Nowcasting-COVID-19-Statistics-Reported-with-Delay/991001501499206056URI

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the "removal method"-a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.

Rocklöv, Joacim,Professor,1979-Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany(Swepub:umu)joro0003 (författare)
Wallin, JonasLund University,Lunds universitet,Statistiska institutionen,Ekonomihögskolan,Department of Statistics,Lund University School of Economics and Management, LUSEM(Swepub:lu)jo8567wa (författare)
Stockholm UniversityStockholm School of Economics (creator_code:org_t)

Ingår i:International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health: MDPI20:41661-78271660-4601

Av författaren/redakt...: Altmejd, Adam; Rocklöv, Joacim, ...; Wallin, Jonas

Om ämnet

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP: MEDICIN OCH HÄLS ...; och Hälsovetenskap; och Folkhälsovetensk ...

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP: SAMHÄLLSVETENSKA ...; och Ekonomi och näri ...; och Nationalekonomi

Av lärosätet: Umeå universitet; Lunds universitet; Handelshögskolan i Stockholm

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