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  • Aerts, Marc (författare)

Pooled individual patient data from five countries were used to derive a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care.

  • E-artikel/E-kapitelEngelska2017

Förlag, utgivningsår, omfång ...

  • Elsevier2017

Nummerbeteckningar

  • LIBRIS-ID:22655398
  • http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-135309uri
  • urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-135309urn
  • 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.09.011doi

Kompletterande språkuppgifter

  • Språk:engelska

Ingår i deldatabas

Anmärkningar

  • <p>Funding agencies: Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Germany (BMBF) [FKZ 01GK0920]</p>
  • Published
  • gratis
  • OBJECTIVE: To construct a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease (CAD) presenting with chest pain in primary care. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Meta-Analysis using 3,099 patients from five studies. To identify candidate predictors, we used random forest trees, multiple imputation of missing values, and logistic regression within individual studies. To generate a prediction rule on the pooled data, we applied a regression model that took account of the differing standard data sets collected by the five studies. RESULTS: The most parsimonious rule included six equally weighted predictors: age ≥55 (males) or ≥65 (females) (+1); attending physician suspected a serious diagnosis (+1); history of CAD (+1); pain brought on by exertion (+1); pain feels like "pressure" (+1); pain reproducible by palpation (-1). CAD was considered absent if the prediction score is &lt;2. The area under the ROC curve was 0.84. We applied this rule to a study setting with a CAD prevalence of 13.2% using a prediction score cutoff of &lt;2 (i.e., -1, 0, or +1). When the score was &lt;2, the probability of CAD was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.1-3.9%); when the score was ≥ 2, it was 43.0% (95% CI: 35.8-50.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical prediction rules are a key strategy for individualizing care. Large data sets based on electronic health records from diverse sites create opportunities for improving their internal and external validity. Our patient-level meta-analysis from five primary care sites should improve external validity. Our strategy for addressing site-to-site systematic variation in missing data should improve internal validity. Using principles derived from decision theory, we also discuss the problem of setting the cutoff prediction score for taking action.

Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar

Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)

  • Minalu, Girma (författare)
  • Bösner, Stefan (författare)
  • Buntinx, Frank (författare)
  • Burnand, Bernard (författare)
  • Haasenritter, Jörg (författare)
  • Herzig, Lilli (författare)
  • Knottnerus, J André137212 (författare)
  • Nilsson, Staffan (författare)
  • Renier, Walter (författare)
  • Sox, Carol (författare)
  • Sox, Harold (författare)
  • Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert (författare)
  • Linköpings universitetInstitutionen för medicin och hälsa308697 (utgivare)
  • Linköpings universitetMedicinska fakulteten (utgivare)
  • Region ÖstergötlandPrimärvårdscentrum (utgivare)

Sammanhörande titlar

  • Del av/supplement till:channel record
  • Ingår i:VärdpublikationJournal of Clinical Epidemiology81, 120-1280895-4356

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