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Modelling default contagion using multivariate phase-type distributions

Herbertsson, Alexander, 1977 (author)
Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för nationalekonomi med statistik,Department of Economics
 (creator_code:org_t)
2011
2011
English.
In: Review of Derivatives Research. ; 14:1, s. 1-36
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • We model dynamic credit portfolio dependence by using default contagion in an intensity-based framework. Two different portfolios (with ten obligors), one in the European auto sector, the other in the European financial sector, are calibrated against their market CDS spreads and the corresponding CDS-correlations. After the calibration, which are perfect for the banking portfolio, and good for the auto case, we study several quantities of importance in active credit portfolio management. For example, implied multivariate default and survival distributions, multivariate conditional survival distributions, implied default correlations, expected default times and expected ordered default times. The default contagion is modelled by letting individual intensities jump when other defaults occur, but be constant between defaults. This model is translated into a Markov jump process, a so called multivariate phase-type distribution, which represents the default status in the credit portfolio. Matrix-analytic methods are then used to derive expressions for the quantities studied in the calibrated portfolios.

Subject headings

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)
SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Portfolio credit risk
Intensity-based models
Dynamic dependence modelling
CDS-correlation
Default contagion
Markov jump processes
Multivariate phase-type distributions
Matrix-analytic methods

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