Patterns and predictors of skin score change in early diffuse systemic sclerosis from the European Scleroderma Observational Study

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Patterns and predictors of skin score change in early diffuse systemic sclerosis from the European Scleroderma Observational Study

Herrick, A. L. (author): University of Manchester,Christie NHS Foundation Trust

Peytrignet, S. (author): University of Manchester

Lunt, M. (author): University of Manchester

Pan, X. (author): University of Manchester

Hesselstrand, Roger (author): Lund University,Lunds universitet,Forskargruppen för systemisk skleros, Lund,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Lund Systemic Sclerosis Research Group,Lund University Research Groups

Mouthon, L. (author): Paris Descartes University,University Medical Center Utrecht

Silman, A. J. (author): University of Oxford

Dinsdale, G. (author): University of Manchester

Brown, E. (author): University of Manchester

Czirják, L. (author): University of Pécs

Distler, J. H. W. (author): Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg,Gateshead Hospitals Foundation Trust

Distler, O. (author): University of Zurich

Fligelstone, K. (author): Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust

Gregory, W. J. (author): Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust

Ochiel, R. (author): Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust

Vonk, M. C. (author): Radboud University Nijmegen

Ancu, C. (author): Grigore T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy

Ong, V. H. (author): University College London

Farge, D. (author): Paris Diderot University,Saint-Louis Hospital, Paris

Hudson, M. (author): Jewish General Hospital,McGill University,University of Leeds,Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust

Matucci-Cerinic, M. (author): University of Florence

Balbir-Gurman, A. (author): Technion - Israel Institute of Technology

Midtvedt, O. (author)

Jobanputra, P. (author): New Queen Elizabeth Hospital

Jordan, A. C. (author): New Queen Elizabeth Hospital,Nantes University Hospital,University of Nantes

Stevens, W. (author): St. Vincent's Hospital, Melbourne

Moinzadeh, P. (author): University of Cologne,University of Adelaide,Royal Adelaide Hospital

Hall, F. C. (author): University of Cambridge

Agard, C. (author)

Anderson, M. E. (author): Aintree University Hospital,University of Liverpool

Diot, E. (author): Hopital Bretonneau

Madhok, R. (author): Glasgow Royal Infirmary

Akil, M. (author): Sheffield Teaching Hospitals

Buch, M. H. (author)

Chung, L. (author): Stanford University

Damjanov, N. S. (author): University of Belgrade

Gunawardena, H. (author): North Bristol NHS Trust

Lanyon, P. (author): Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust

Ahmad, Y. (author): Peter Maddison Rheumatology Centre

Chakravarty, K. (author): Queen’s Hospital

Jacobsen, S. (author): Copenhagen University Hospital,University of Copenhagen

MacGregor, A. J. (author): University of East Anglia

McHugh, N. (author): Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases

Müller-Ladner, U. (author): Justus Liebig University Giessen

Riemekasten, G. (author): University of Lübeck

Becker, M. (author): Charité - University Medicine Berlin

Roddy, J. (author): Royal Perth Hospital

Carreira, P. E. (author): 12 de Octubre University Hospital

Fauchais, A. L. (author): University Hospital Of Limoges

Hachulla, E. (author): University of Lille

Hamilton, J. (author)

Inanç, M. (author): Istanbul University

McLaren, J. S. (author): Whyteman's Brae Hospital,Monash University

Van Laar, J. M. (author)

Pathare, S. (author): James Cook University Hospital

Proudman, S. M. (author)

Rudin, Anna, 1961 (author): University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för reumatologi och inflammationsforskning,Institute of Medicine, Department of Rheumatology and Inflammation Research

Sahhar, J. (author)

Coppere, B. (author): Hôpital Edouard Herriot

Serratrice, C. (author): Hospital Saint Joseph

Sheeran, T. (author): Cannock Chase Hospital

Veale, D. J. (author): St Vincent's University Hospital

Grange, C. (author): Centre Hospitalier Lyon Sud

Trad, G. S. (author): CHU Ambroise Paré

Denton, C. P. (author): University College London

Midtvedt, Øyvind (author): Oslo university hospital

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(creator_code:org_t)

2018-01-06
2018
English.
In: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 77:4, s. 563-570

Related links:: https://ard.bmj.com/...; show more...; http://dx.doi.org/10... (free); https://gup.ub.gu.se...; https://doi.org/10.1...; https://lup.lub.lu.s...; show less...

Journal article (peer-reviewed)

Abstract Subject headings

Objectives Our aim was to use the opportunity provided by the European Scleroderma Observational Study to (1) identify and describe those patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) with progressive skin thickness, and (2) derive prediction models for progression over 12 months, to inform future randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Methods The modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) was recorded every 3 months in 326 patients. 'Progressors' were defined as those experiencing a 5-unit and 25% increase in mRSS score over 12 months (±3 months). Logistic models were fitted to predict progression and, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, were compared on the basis of the area under curve (AUC), accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV). Results 66 patients (22.5%) progressed, 227 (77.5%) did not (33 could not have their status assessed due to insufficient data). Progressors had shorter disease duration (median 8.1 vs 12.6 months, P=0.001) and lower mRSS (median 19 vs 21 units, P=0.030) than non-progressors. Skin score was highest, and peaked earliest, in the anti-RNA polymerase III (Pol3+) subgroup (n=50). A first predictive model (including mRSS, duration of skin thickening and their interaction) had an accuracy of 60.9%, AUC of 0.666 and PPV of 33.8%. By adding a variable for Pol3 positivity, the model reached an accuracy of 71%, AUC of 0.711 and PPV of 41%. Conclusions Two prediction models for progressive skin thickening were derived, for use both in clinical practice and for cohort enrichment in RCTs. These models will inform recruitment into the many clinical trials of dcSSc projected for the coming years. Trial registration number NCT02339441. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

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By the author/editor: Herrick, A. L.; Peytrignet, S.; Lunt, M.; Pan, X.; Hesselstrand, Ro ...; Mouthon, L.; show more...; Silman, A. J.; Dinsdale, G.; Brown, E.; Czirják, L.; Distler, J. H. W ...; Distler, O.; Fligelstone, K.; Gregory, W. J.; Ochiel, R.; Vonk, M. C.; Ancu, C.; Ong, V. H.; Farge, D.; Hudson, M.; Matucci-Cerinic, ...; Balbir-Gurman, A ...; Midtvedt, O.; Jobanputra, P.; Jordan, A. C.; Stevens, W.; Moinzadeh, P.; Hall, F. C.; Agard, C.; Anderson, M. E.; Diot, E.; Madhok, R.; Akil, M.; Buch, M. H.; Chung, L.; Damjanov, N. S.; Gunawardena, H.; Lanyon, P.; Ahmad, Y.; Chakravarty, K.; Jacobsen, S.; MacGregor, A. J.; McHugh, N.; Müller-Ladner, U ...; Riemekasten, G.; Becker, M.; Roddy, J.; Carreira, P. E.; Fauchais, A. L.; Hachulla, E.; Hamilton, J.; Inanç, M.; McLaren, J. S.; Van Laar, J. M.; Pathare, S.; Proudman, S. M.; Rudin, Anna, 196 ...; Sahhar, J.; Coppere, B.; Serratrice, C.; Sheeran, T.; Veale, D. J.; Grange, C.; Trad, G. S.; Denton, C. P.; Midtvedt, Øyvind; show less...

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MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Clinical Medicin ...; and Rheumatology and ...

Articles in the publication: Annals of the Rh ...

By the university: University of Gothenburg; Lund University

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Patterns and predictors of skin score change in early diffuse systemic sclerosis from the European Scleroderma Observational Study

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