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Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

Xia, Jianyang (author)
East China Normal University
McGuire, A. David (author)
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Lawrence, David (author)
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Burke, Eleanor (author)
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change
Chen, Guangsheng (author)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Chen, Xiaodong (author)
University of Washington
Delire, Christine (author)
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Meteo-France
Koven, Charles (author)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
MacDougall, Andrew H. (author)
University of Victoria
Peng, Shushi (author)
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE),Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,University Grenoble Alpes
Rinke, Annette (author)
Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam,Beijing Normal University
Saito, Kazuyuki (author)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Zhang, Wenxin (author)
University of Copenhagen
Alkama, Ramdane (author)
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Meteo-France
Bohn, Theodore J. (author)
University of Washington
Ciais, Philippe (author)
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Decharme, Bertrand (author)
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Meteo-France
Gouttevin, Isabelle (author)
National Research Institute Of Science And Technology For Environment And Agriculture (irstea),Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE)
Hajima, Tomohiro (author)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Hayes, Daniel J. (author)
University of Maine
Huang, Kun (author)
East China Normal University
Ji, Duoying (author)
Beijing Normal University
Krinner, Gerhard (author)
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE),University Grenoble Alpes
Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (author)
University of Washington
Miller, Paul A. (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
Moore, John C. (author)
Beijing Normal University
Smith, Benjamin (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
Sueyoshi, Tetsuo (author)
National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR),Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Shi, Zheng (author)
University of Oklahoma
Yan, Liming (author)
East China Normal University
Liang, Junyi (author)
University of Oklahoma
Jiang, Lifen (author)
University of Oklahoma
Zhang, Qian (author)
Beijing Normal University
Luo, Yiqi (author)
Tsinghua University,University of Oklahoma
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2017
2017
English.
In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 122:2, s. 430-446
Related links:
http://dx.doi.org/10...
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
https://doi.org/10.1...
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  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246±6gCm-2yr-1), most models produced higher NPP (309±12gCm-2yr-1) over the permafrost region during 2000-2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982-2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800gCm-2yr-1), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Arctic
Carbon use efficiency
Climate warming
CO elevation
High latitudes
Model intercomparison

Publication and Content Type

art (subject category)
ref (subject category)

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