| 1. |
- Abegg, Bruno, et al.
(författare)
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Overloaded! : Critical revision and a new conceptual approach for snow indicators in ski tourism
- 2021
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Ingår i: International journal of biometeorology. - : Springer. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 65:5, s. 691-701
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Indicators are widely used in climate variability and climate change assessments to simplify the tracking of complex processes and phenomena in the state of the environment. Apart from the climatic criteria, the snow indicators in ski tourism have been increasingly extended with elements that relate to the technical, operational, and commercial aspects of ski tourism. These non-natural influencing factors have gained in importance in comparison with the natural environmental conditions but are more difficult to comprehend in time and space, resulting in limited explanatory power of the related indicators when applied for larger/longer scale assessments. We review the existing indicator approaches to derive quantitative measures for the snow conditions in ski areas, to formulate the criteria that the indicators should fulfill, and to provide a list of indicators with their technical specifications which can be used in snow condition assessments for ski tourism. For the use of these indicators, a three-step procedure consisting of definition, application, and interpretation is suggested. We also provide recommendations for the design of indicator-based assessments of climate change effects on ski tourism. Thereby, we highlight the importance of extensive stakeholder involvement to allow for real-world relevance of the achieved results.
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| 2. |
- Ahmed, Mukhtar
(författare)
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Optimizing sowing window, cultivar choice, and plant density to boost maize yield under RCP8.5 climate scenario of CMIP5
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Biometeorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 66, s. 971-985
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impacts of climate change and possible adaptations to food security are a global concern and need greater focus in arid and semi-arid regions. It includes scenario of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP-RCP8.5). For this purpose, two DSSAT maize models (CSM-CERES and CSM-IXIM) were calibrated and tested with two different maize cultivars namely Single Cross 10 (SC10) and Three Way Cross 324 (TW24) using a dataset of three growing seasons in Nile Delta. SC10 is a long-growing cultivar that is resistant to abiotic stresses, whereas TW24 is short and sensitive to such harsh conditions. The calibrated models were then employed to predict maize yield in baseline (1981-2010) and under future time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under CMIP5-RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, the use of various adaptation options as shifting planting date, increasing sowing density, and genotypes was included in crop models. Simulation analysis showed that, averaged over three GCMs and two crop models, the yield of late maturity cultivar (SC10) decreased by 4.1, 17.2, and 55.9% for the three time slices of 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, compared to baseline yield (1981-2010). Such reduction increased with early maturity cultivar (TW24), recording 12.4, 40.6, and 71.3% for near (2030s), mid (2050s), and late century (2080s) respectively relative to baseline yield. The most suitable adaptation options included choosing a stress-resistant genotype, changing the planting date to plus or minus 30 days from baseline planting date, and raising the sowing density to 9 m(-2) plants. These insights could minimize the potential reduction of climate change-induced yields by 39% by late century.
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| 3. |
- Asamoah, Benedict, et al.
(författare)
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Is ambient heat exposure levels associated with miscarriage or stillbirths in hot regions? A cross-sectional study using survey data from the Ghana Maternal Health Survey 2007
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Biometeorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 62:3, s. 319-330
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is well established that high ambient heat could cause congenital abnormalities resulting in miscarriage or stillbirth among certain species of mammals. However, this has not been systematically studied in real field settings among humans, despite the potential value of such knowledge for estimating the impact of global warming on the human species. This study sought to test the hypothesis that maternal heat exposure during pregnancy in hot regions is associated with increased prevalence of spontaneous abortions or stillbirths and to develop an analytical strategy to use existing data from maternal health surveys and existing data on historical heat levels at a geographic grid cell level. A subsample of the Ghana Maternal Health Survey 2007 was used in this study. This study sample consisted of 1136 women with pregnancy experiences between 2004 and 2007, out of which 141 women had a pregnancy that terminated in miscarriage or stillbirth. Induced-abortion cases were excluded. The linkage between ambient heat exposure and pregnancy outcome followed the epidemiological time-place-person principle, by linking timing of pregnancy outcome with historical data of local area heat levels for each month, as estimated in an international database. Maternal heat exposure level was estimated using calculated levels of the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which takes into account temperature, humidity, heat radiation, and air movement over the skin (wind speed). The values we used applied to exposure in the shade or in buildings without cooling (no solar heat radiation) and a standard air movement of 1 m/s. We applied two exposure durations: yearly average and monthly average for second month of pregnancy. In one analysis, we restricted the sample to four regions with time-homogeneous ambient heat. Analysis was made using logistic regression. About 12% of the latest pregnancies ended in either miscarriage (9.6%) or stillbirth (2.8%). The odds ratios indicated 12 to 15% increase (ORcrude 1.15, 95% CI 0.92–1.42, and ORage adjusted 1.12, 95% CI 0.90–1.39) in the odds of having a stillbirth or miscarriage with each additional degree increase in WBGT, although this was just outside two-sided statistical significance. The WBGT range was quite narrow (most annual values in the range 24–26 °C, and most monthly values in the range 23–27 °C), which may have hidden any real impacts of high heat levels. The seemingly positive association observed disappeared after adjusting for gravidity. The analyses of the four selected regions indicated 27 to 42% increase in the odds of experiencing miscarriage or stillbirth with every degree increase in WBGT (crude OR 1.42 95% CI 1.00–2.03). This association remained after adjusting for maternal age pregnancy history, although no longer statistically significant (adjusted OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.89–1.81). Environmental heat exposures may be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, but this study was inconclusive, possibly because the heat exposure range was small. Historical records of routine observations in existing databases can be used for epidemiological studies on the health effects of heat, although data from properly and purposively designed studies might be more suitable for further studies.
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| 4. |
- Baruti, Modest Maurus, et al.
(författare)
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Review of studies on outdoor thermal comfort in warm humid climates : challenges of informal urban fabric
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Biometeorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 63:10, s. 1449-1462
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In warm humid climate regions where majority of the population spend most of the time outdoors, an adequate outdoor thermal environment is crucial. A number of studies on outdoor thermal comfort in warm humid climates were carried out in the past decade. However, most of these studies focused on the formal urban fabric and left the informal urban fabric, where typically 30 to 85% of the population in developing countries resides, unattended. Theoretically, the informal urban fabric structure of towns/cities poses many outdoor thermal environmental challenges, such as lack of air movement, high thermal stress and discomfort. This paper reviews previous research on outdoor thermal comfort in warm humid climates, and, particularly, it focuses on the relationship between outdoor thermal comfort and urban fabric as well as human thermal perception. Regarding the formal urban fabric, this review asserts that the thermal comfort range is higher in warm humid climates than in temperate climates and that thermal indices alone cannot predict thermal comfort; behavioural and psychological adaptation have proven to have a big impact on thermal perception. As for the informal urban fabric, only few studies have investigated the influence of the urban geometry and none has studied people’s thermal perception of the outdoor thermal environment. To conclude, the article highlights practical challenges posed by the informal urban fabric in contrast to the formal urban fabric in terms of structure (morphology).
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Bolmgren, Kjell, et al.
(författare)
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One man, 73 years, and 25 species. Evaluating phenological responses using a lifelong study of first flowering dates
- 2013
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Ingår i: International journal of biometeorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 57:3, s. 367-375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Phenological shifts linked to global warming reflect the ability of organisms to track changing climatic conditions. However, different organisms track global warming differently and there is an increasing interest in the link between phenological traits and plant abundance and distribution. Long-term data sets are often used to estimate phenological traits to climate change, but so far little has been done to evaluate the quality of these estimates. Here, we use a 73-year long data series of first flowering dates for 25 species from north-temperate Sweden to evaluate (i) correlations between first flowering dates and year for different time periods and (ii) linear regression models between first flowering date and mean monthly temperatures in preceding months. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential of this kind of data to estimate the phenological temperature sensitivities (i.e. number of days phenological change per degree temperature change, beta(60)) in such models. The sign of the correlations between first flowering dates and year were highly inconsistent among different time periods, highlighting that estimates of phenological change are sensitive to the specific time period used. The first flowering dates of all species were correlated with temperature, but with large differences in both the strength of the response and the period(s) of the year that were most strongly associated with phenological variation. Finally, our analyses indicated that legacy data sets need to be relatively long-term to be useful for estimating phenological temperature sensitivities (beta(60)) for inter-specific comparisons. In 10-year long observation series only one out of 24 species reached a parts per thousand yen80 % probability of estimating temperature sensitivity (beta(60)) within a +/- 1 range, and 17 out of 24 species reached a parts per thousand yen80 % probability when observation series were 20 years or shorter. The standard error for beta(60) ranged from 0.6 to 2.0 for 10-year long observation series, and 19 out of 24 species reached SE < 1 after 15 years. In general, late flowering species will require longer time series than early flowering species.
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| 7. |
- Bolmgren, Kjell
(författare)
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Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Biometeorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 62, s. 1109-1113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.
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| 8. |
- Bröde, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Deriving the operational procedure for the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Biometeorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-1254 .- 0020-7128. ; 56:3, s. 481-494
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) aimed for a one-dimensional quantity adequately reflecting the human physiological reaction to the multi-dimensionally defined actual outdoor thermal environment. The human reaction was simulated by the UTCI-Fiala multi-node model of human thermoregulation, which was integrated with an adaptive clothing model. Following the concept of an equivalent temperature, UTCI for a given combination of wind speed, radiation, humidity and air temperature was defined as the air temperature of the reference environment, which according to the model produces an equivalent dynamic physiological response. Operationalising this concept involved (1) the definition of a reference environment with 50% relative humidity (but vapour pressure capped at 20 hPa), with calm air and radiant temperature equalling air temperature and (2) the development of a one-dimensional representation of the multivariate model output at different exposure times. The latter was achieved by principal component analyses showing that the linear combination of 7 parameters of thermophysiological strain (core, mean and facial skin temperatures, sweat production, skin wettedness, skin blood flow, shivering) after 30 and 120 min exposure time accounted for two-thirds of the total variation in the multi-dimensional dynamic physiological response. The operational procedure was completed by a scale categorising UTCI equivalent temperature values in terms of thermal stress, and by providing simplified routines for fast but sufficiently accurate calculation, which included look-up tables of pre-calculated UTCI values for a grid of all relevant combinations of climate parameters and polynomial regression equations predicting UTCI over the same grid. The analyses of the sensitivity of UTCI to humidity, radiation and wind speed showed plausible reactions in the heat as well as in the cold, and indicate that UTCI may in this regard be universally useable in the major areas of research and application in human biometeorology.
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| 9. |
- Buchwal, Agata, et al.
(författare)
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Temperature sensitivity of willow dwarf shrub growth from two distinct High Arctic sites
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Biometeorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The High Arctic region has experienced marked climate fluctuations within the past decades strongly affecting tundra shrub growth. However, the spatial variability in dwarf shrub growth responses in this remote region remains largely unknown. This study characterizes temperature sensitivity of radial growth of two willow dwarf shrub species from two distinct High Arctic sites. The dwarf shrub Salix arctica from Northern Greenland (82°N), which has a dry continental High Arctic climate, is linked with Salix polaris from central Svalbard (78° N), which experiences a more oceanic High Arctic climate with relatively mild winters. We found similar positive and significant relationships between annual growth of both Salix dwarf shrub species and July–August air temperatures (1960–2010), despite different temperature regimes and shrub growth rates at the two sites. Also, Salix dwarf shrub growth was significantly negatively correlated with Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) indices; S. arctica from Northern Greenland was negatively correlated with previous autumn (AO index) and current summer AO and NAO indices, and S. polaris with the summer NAO index. The results highlight the importance of both local and regional climatic drivers for dwarf willow shrub growth in harsh polar desert habitats and are a step in the direction of identifying and scaling changes in plant growth across the High Arctic.
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| 10. |
- Chau, Pui Hing, et al.
(författare)
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Visits to the accident and emergency department in hot season of a city with subtropical climate: association with heat stress and related meteorological variables
- 2022
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Ingår i: International journal of biometeorology. - : Springer Nature. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 66:10, s. 1955-1971
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Literature reporting the association between heat stress defined by universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and emergency department visits is mainly conducted in Europe. This study aimed to investigate the association between heat stress, as defined by the UTCI, and visits to the accident and emergency department (AED) in Hong Kong, which represents a subtropical climate region.Methods A retrospective study involving 13,438,846 AED visits in the public sector from May 2000 to September 2016, excluding 2003 and 2009, was conducted in Hong Kong. Age-sex-specific ANCOVA models of daily AED rates on heat stress and prolonged heat stress, adjusting for air quality, prolonged poor air quality, typhoon, rainstorm, year, day of the week, public holiday, summer vacation, and fee charging, were used.Results On a day with strong heat stress (32.1 °C ≤ UTCI ≤ 38.0 °C), the AED visit rate (per 100,000) increased by 0.9 (95% CI: 0.5, 1.3) and 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3, 2.1) for females and males aged 19–64 and 4.1 (95% CI: 2.7, 5.4) and 4.1 (95% CI: 2.6, 5.6) for females and males aged ≥ 65, while keeping other variables constant. On a day with very strong heat stress (38.1 °C ≤ UTCI ≤ 46.0 °C), the corresponding rates increased by 0.6 (95% CI: 0.1, 1.2), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.7, 2.7), 4.9 (95% CI: 3.1, 6.7), and 4.7 (95% CI: 2.7, 6.6), respectively. The effect size of heat stress associated with AED visit rates was negligible among those aged ≤ 18. Heat stress showed the greatest effect size for males aged 19–64 among all subgroups.Conclusion Biothermal condition from heat stress was associated with the health of the citizens in a city with a subtropical climate and reflected in the increase of daily AED visit. Public health recommendations have been made accordingly for the prevention of heat-related AED visits.
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