| 1. |
- Fitzgerald, John, et al.
(author)
-
Household Behaviour under rationing
- 2023
-
In: National Institute Economic Review. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 0027-9501 .- 1741-3036. ; 263, s. 6-26
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The pandemic-induced economic crisis has seen a massive increase in savings as households could not spend their income. The last time that consumers were seriously rationed was during the Second World War. This article models the behaviour of households during the War years and its immediate aftermath in Ireland, Sweden, the US and UK. Savings were held in liquid form and, once the War was over and rationing eased, a consumption boom transpired. However, significant excess savings were converted into physical assets in the housing market. There is evidence that this pattern is being repeated as the Covid-19 crisis eases.
|
|
| 2. |
- Kenny, Seán, et al.
(author)
-
POLITICAL ECONOMY of SECESSION : LESSONS from the EARLY YEARS of the IRISH FREE STATE
- 2022
-
In: National Institute Economic Review. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 0027-9501 .- 1741-3036. ; 261, s. 48-78
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We apply insights from the political economy of secession to analyse the early years of the Irish Free State (IFS). The IFS was fortuitous in a debt settlement that enabled it to begin its existence debt free while also receiving financial assistance to quell civil unrest. Yet the IFS was unable to continue to provide the welfare spending inherited from the old regime thereby exacerbating inequality. The IFS also maintained a sterling peg, which led to a milder experience of the depression era. Ultimately, however, the benefits of independence were not forthcoming in the early years of the IFS.
|
|
| 3. |
- Koop, Gary, et al.
(author)
-
NOWCASTING ‘TRUE’ MONTHLY U.S. GDP DURING THE PANDEMIC
- 2021
-
In: National Institute Economic Review. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0027-9501 .- 1741-3036. ; 256, s. 44-70
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Expenditure-side and income-side gross domestic product (GDP) are measured at the quarterly frequency and contain measurement error. Econometric methods exist for producing reconciled estimates of underlying true GDP from these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this paper developed a mixed-frequency reconciliation model which produces monthly estimates of true GDP. In the present paper, we investigate whether this model continues to work well in the face of the extreme observations that occurred during the pandemic year and consider several extensions of it. These include stochastic volatility and error distributions that are fat-tailed or explicitly allow for outliers.
|
|
| 4. |
- Koop, Gary, et al.
(author)
-
RECONCILED ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT IN THE UK
- 2020
-
In: National Institute Economic Review. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0027-9501 .- 1741-3036. ; 253, s. R44-R59
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is renewed interest in levelling up the regions of the UK. The combination of social and political discontent, and the sluggishness of key UK macroeconomic indicators like productivity growth, has led to increased interest in understanding the regional economies of the UK. In turn, this has led to more investment in economic statistics. Specifically, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently started to produce quarterly regional GDP data for the nine English regions and Wales that date back to 2012Q1. This complements existing real GVA data for the regions available from the ONS on an annual basis back to 1998; with the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland producing their own quarterly output measures. In this paper we reconcile these two data sources along with UK quarterly output data that date back to 1970. This enables us to produce both more timely real terms estimates of quarterly economic growth in the regions of the UK and a new reconciled historical time-series of quarterly regional real output data from 1970. We explore a number of features of interest of these new data. This includes producing a new quarterly regional productivity series and commenting on the evolution of regional productivity growth in the UK.
|
|
| 5. |
- Sterner, Thomas, 1952, et al.
(author)
-
INDIA IN THE COMING ‘CLIMATE G2’?
- 2020
-
In: National Institute Economic Review. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 0027-9501 .- 1741-3036. ; 251:February 2020
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most at stake depending on the type of global burden-sharing agreements reached, thus becoming a member of the ‘Climate G2’. We create a hypothetical global carbon market based on modelling emissions reduction commitments across countries and regions relative to their marginal abatement costs. We then analyse net financial flows across a wide range of burden-sharing agreements, from pure ‘grandfathering’ based on current emissions to equal-per-capita allocation. Among the four largest players – the United States, the EU-27, China, and India – it is China that would currently be the largest net seller of emissions allowances in all but the grandfathered scenario. The United States would be the largest net buyer. However, India is poised to take China’s position by around 2030. That leaves the United States and India as the two major countries with most to gain and lose, depending on the type of climate deal reached.
|
|
