| 1. |
- Abdi, Hakim, et al.
(författare)
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The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands
- 2016
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 138:1, s. 111-125
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ± 2.8 g C m−2 yr.−1 across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a + 1 °C change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of −6.6 g C m−2 yr.−1. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m−2 yr.−1 over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supply.
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| 2. |
- Ahmed, Haseeb, et al.
(författare)
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Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy production
- 2022
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 175
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aims to identify the effects of temperature on dairy production and the heat tolerance of different dairy breeds under heat stress. Using farm and animal-level data from 1435 dairy farms throughout Sweden for 4 years (from 2016 to 2019), we find that a 7-day average of daily maximum temperatures above similar to 20 degrees C is associated with sharp declines in milk production. We then estimate the farm-level loss in contribution margin for a typical Swedish dairy farm for the year 2018, which consisted of long-lasting heatwaves and extended summer temperatures. We also estimate that, on average, there are no differences in the impact of heatwaves on milk losses for different dairy breeds but that there exists a trade-off between genetic milk production potential and heat tolerance of a dairy cow. The magnitude of this productivity-tolerance trade-off may differ across breeds, suggesting that the high-production potential animals of certain breeds may be less sensitive to heat stress. These findings have important implications in terms of adapting to heat stress, investing in mitigation measures, and development of future breeds that can ameliorate the current trade-off between production capacity of a cow and its heat tolerance.
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| 3. |
- Alfieri, Lorenzo, et al.
(författare)
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Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies
- 2016
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 136:3, s. 507-521
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Future flood risk in Europe is likely to increase due to a combination of climatic and socio-economic drivers. Effective adaptation strategies need to be implemented to limit the impact of river flooding on population and assets. This research builds upon a recently developed flood risk assessment framework at European scale to explore the benefits of adaptation against extreme floods. The effect of implementing four different adaptation measures is simulated in the modeling framework. Measures include the rise of flood protections, reduction of the peak flows through water retention, reduction of vulnerability and relocation to safer areas. Their sensitivity is assessed in several configurations under a high-end global warming scenario over the time range 1976-2100. Results suggest that the future increase in expected damage and population affected by river floods can be compensated through different configurations of adaptation measures. The adaptation efforts should favor measures targeted at reducing the impacts of floods, rather than trying to avoid them. Conversely, adaptation plans only based on rising flood protections have the effect of reducing the frequency of small floods and exposing the society to less-frequent but catastrophic floods and potentially long recovery processes.
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| 4. |
- Angeler, David
(författare)
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Effects of climatic change on stream water quality in Spain
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 103, s. 339-352
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is unequivocal evidence of increased air temperatures in Spain as a result of climate change Using organic matter, nitrate and soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations, we reconstructed changes in water quality in 15 montane, pristine streams between 1973 and 2005 in Spain We also measured how loading rates of these variables change as a function of shifting temperatures Almost half of tested variables were related with hypothesized trends of climatic change for air temperature Concerning extreme events, the hypothesis of climatic change matched in 33% of all relationships, which mostly occurred in Northern Spain Regional gradients of population change and soil degradation, however, did not explain the geographical distribution of climatic change effects The main reason that effects on water quality are not ubiquitous and that constraining factors are hardly detected may be that long-term signals are the outcome of several interacting processes These are still poorly known and may act at different spatial and temporal scales Hence, a case-by-case approach might prove more fruitful than a regional one when studying water quality responses to climatic change Consideration of the balance between extreme and normal events (storm- vs baseflow), catchment effects (land use and its effects on evapotranspiration and runoff) and in-stream processes (outgassing, mineralization, burial) could help increase our understanding of the responses of water quality to climatic change
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| 5. |
- Antonson, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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A society ill-equipped to deal with the effects of climate change on cultural heritage and landscape : a qualitative assessment of planning practices in transport infrastructure
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Nature. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 166:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides insights into the handling of climate change issues related to cultural heritage at different government decision levels dealing with physical planning, and in particular roads. Data are derived from a qualitative analysis of official reports and interviews with local and regional planners in three Swedish regions with contrasting climates. The theoretical lens of Institutional Interplay is applied to an analysis grouped into six themes: Climate threats to cultural heritage, Adaptation measures, Preparedness, Institutional preconditions, Institutional interplay, and Challenges. The results suggest that despite a strong environmental reputation internationally, Sweden is not particularly well prepared for dealing with future climate change impacts on cultural heritage and landscape. The lack of national standards and standardised methods risks regional and sectoral variation in the treatment of similar tasks, a problem which deficiencies in knowledge and continuing education are perpetuating. The degree to which discussions and cooperation occur between divisions within the same authority, between authorities, and in national networks varies considerably. Routines and criteria for prioritisation of cultural heritage mitigation, essential under conditions of limited resources, have yet to have been implemented. We conclude with five recommendations for improving the planning process with respect to climate change risks to cultural heritage.
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| 6. |
- Arceo-Gómez, Eva O., et al.
(författare)
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Droughts and rural households’ wellbeing: evidence from Mexico
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 162, s. 1197-1212
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change could increase the frequency and duration of droughts that affect Mexico. This is particularly worrisome because many agricultural communities in the country are poor and with limited capacities for adaptation. This study estimated the impact of droughts on rural households’ wellbeing in Mexico, specifically on per capita earnings, poverty, and children’s school attendance. To do this, we focused our empirical analysis on the effects of the 2011 drought, one of the worst droughts that have affected Mexico in the past 70years. Our results provide clear evidence that droughts have a negative impact on rural households’ wellbeing. Households that experienced a drought had lower per capita earnings and were almost 5 percentage points more likely to be poor after the drought than their counterparts. Furthermore, droughts reduced female employment and male school attendance in almost three percentage points. Our results also provide indirect evidence showing that households that are less familiar with relative water scarcity are the ones that are hit hardest during droughts. Droughts are poised to become an additional threat to the wellbeing of rural Mexican households.
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| 7. |
- Ashraf, Samaneh, et al.
(författare)
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Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 152:3-4, s. 379-391
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from -8.3mm/year in 2010-2039 to -61.6mm/year in 2070-2099 compared with an observed rate of 4mm/year in 1976-2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran's heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia.
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| 8. |
- Asplund, Therese, et al.
(författare)
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Framings and coverage of climate change in Swedish specialized farming magazines
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science+Business Media B.V.. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 117:1-2, s. 197-209
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is a fundamental challenge for which agriculture is sensitive and vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified relevant information as key to enabling appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation action. Information specifically directed to farmers can be found, for example, in specialized farming magazines.While recent studies examine how national news media frame climate change, less —if any —studies have addressed climate framings and coverage in specialized media. Media framings are storylines that provide meaning by communicating how and why an issue should be seen as a problem, how it should be handled, and who is responsible for it. This paper analyses the framings and coverage of climate change in two Swedish specialized farming magazines from 2000 to 2009. It examines the extent of the climate change coverage, the content of the media items, and the dominant framings underlying their climate change coverage. The study identifies: increased coverage of climate change starting in 2007; frequent coverage of agriculture 's contribution to climate change, climate change impacts on agriculture, and consequences of climate politics for agriculture; and four prominent frames: conflict, scientific certainty, economic burden, and action. The paper concludes that climate change communicators addressing farmers and agricultural extension officers should pay attention to how these frames may be interpreted by different target audiences. Research is needed on how specialized media reports on climate-related issues and how science-based climate information is understood by different groups of farmers and which other factors influence farmers’ engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation.
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| 9. |
- Azar, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass - : Costs and potential role in stabilizing the atmosphere
- 2006
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Nature. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 74:1-3, s. 47-79
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The capture and storage of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels is gaining attraction as a means to deal with climate change. CO2 emissions from biomass conversion processes can also be captured. If that is done, biomass energy with CO2 capture and storage (BECS) would become a technology that removes CO2 from the atmosphere and at the same time deliver CO2-neutral energy carriers (heat, electricity or hydrogen) to society. Here we present estimates of the costs and conversion efficiency of electricity, hydrogen and heat generation from fossil fuels and biomass with CO2 capture and storage. We then insert these technology characteristics into a global energy and transportation model (GET 5.0), and calculate costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentration at 350 and 450 ppm. We find that carbon capture and storage technologies applied to fossil fuels have the potential to reduce the cost of meeting the 350 ppm stabilisation targets by 50% compared to a case where these technologies are not available and by 80% when BECS is allowed. For the 450 ppm scenario, the reduction in costs is 40 and 42%, respectively. Thus, the difference in costs between cases where BECS technologies are allowed and where they are not is marginal for the 450 ppm stabilization target. It is for very low stabilization targets that negative emissions become warranted, and this makes BECS more valuable than in cases with higher stabilization targets. Systematic and stochastic sensitivity analysis is performed. Finally, BECS opens up the possibility to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. But this option should not be seen as an argument in favour of doing nothing about the climate problem now and then switching on this technology if climate change turns out to be a significant problem. It is not likely that BECS can be initiated sufficiently rapidly at a sufficient scale to follow this path to avoiding abrupt and serious climate changes if that would happen.
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| 10. |
- Azar, Christian, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-1480 .- 0165-0009. ; 100:1, s. 195-202
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 1992) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability of meeting CO2 concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologies-e.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)-significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO2).
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