| 1. |
- Alexius, Annika, et al.
(författare)
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Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies
- 2008
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 35:3, s. 527-541
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study the stabilizing properties of exchange rates in five small open economies during to periods of floating exchange rates and inflation targeting. In the cases of Sweden and Canada, the nominal exchange rates behave in a stabilizing manner. Most exchange rate movements emanate from the exchange rate itself and are hence not responses to fundamental shocks. However, these non-fundamental shocks have only negligible effects on output and inflation. Our findings indicate that exchange rates display some stabilizing properties but can mainly be characterized as disconnected from the rest of the economy.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Fredrik N G
(författare)
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Exchange Rate Dynamics Revisited: A Panel Data Test of the Fractional Integration Order
- 2014
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 47:2, s. 389-409
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We test the possibility that exchange rates from nine developed countries have a unit root against the alternate possibility that they are fractionally integrated. Theoretically, exchange rates are only expected to follow a random walk under restrictive assumptions. However, most traditional unit root tests cannot reject a unit root in exchange rates, and time series tests that allow for fractional integration have given inconclusive results. To increase the power of the test of the integration order we develop two panel data tests of the fractional integration order. Monte Carlo simulations show that these tests are correctly sized and have relatively high power compared to other similar tests. Moreover, our empirical results show that we can reject a unit root in exchange rates with a high probability, but the integration order is close to one. This indicates that exchange rates are mean-reverting, although the reversion is slow, resulting in long swings.
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Fredrik N G, et al.
(författare)
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Lending for Growth? A Granger Causality Analysis of China's Finance-Growth Nexus
- 2016
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 51:3, s. 897-920
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- China’s banking sector is dominated by four distinct organizational forms: policy banks (PBs), state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs), joint stock commercial banks (JSCBs), and rural credit cooperatives (RCCs). Economic analyses have especially focused on the development of bank efficiency and profitability over time. The equally important question, which of China’s banking institutions promote economic growth, has not been explored using macroeconomic data. Our study uses a novel data set covering the period 1997 to 2008 and employ Granger causality tests to estimate the finance-growth nexus of each of these bank types. Our results show that SOCBs and RCCs do not Granger-cause GDP growth and that SOCBs even have a negative effect on manufacturing growth. By contrast, PBs and JSCBs promote economic growth.
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| 4. |
- Angelov, Nikolay, et al.
(författare)
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Sick of family responsibilities?
- 2020
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Nature. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 58:2, s. 777-814
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study estimates the effect of parenthood on the within-couple gender gap in paidsick leave. We find that as a result of parenthood, mothers more than double their sick leave compared with fathers. However, there is no corresponding effect on health measured by hospital stays. We also find that mothers’ income trajectory is strongly related to the magnitude of the effect: A less favorable income trajectory is associated with a larger effect of parenthood on the sick leave gap. Since mothers’ labor supply is measured 1 year prior to sick leave, this result suggests that the lower labor supply induces an increase in sick leave rather than the other way round.
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| 5. |
- Ankargren, Sebastian, et al.
(författare)
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The importance of the financial system for the real economy
- 2017
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 53:4, s. 1553-1586
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper first describes financial variables that have been constructed to correspond to various channels in the transmission mechanism. Next, a Bayesian VAR model for the macroeconomy, with priors on the steady states, is augmented with these financial variables and estimated using Swedish data for 1989–2015. The results support three conclusions. First, the financial system is important and the strength of the results is dependent on identification, with the financial variables accounting for 10–25 % of the forecast error variance of Swedish GDP growth. Second, the suggested model produces an earlier signal regarding the probability of recession, compared to a model without financial variables. Third, the model’s forecasts for the deep downturn in 2008 and 2009, conditional on the development of the financial variables, outperform a macro-model that lacks financial variables. Furthermore, this improvement in modelling Swedish GDP growth during the financial crisis does not come at the expense of unconditional predictive power. Taken together, the results suggest that the proposed model presents an accessible possibility to analyse the macro-financial linkages and the GDP developments, especially during a financial crisis.
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| 6. |
- Appelgren, Leif
(författare)
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Optimal auditing of social benefit fraud: a case study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : PHYSICA-VERLAG GMBH & CO. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 56:1, s. 203-231
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this paper is to study the effect of different audit strategies on fraud in one particular social benefit system in Sweden. The efficiency of different audit strategies is compared using a computer-based optimization algorithm. Two types of audit strategies are used. One is to adapt the audit intensity to the propensity for errors and fraud in different segments of the group studied. This type of strategy is denoted segmentation strategy. The second type of audit strategy is based on adaptation of behaviour through information. The model developed by Erard and Feinstein for tax auditing is adapted for benefit fraud. In this model, the audit intensity is controlled by a variable, and the auditees are informed of the relationship between control variable and audit intensity. The control variable used in this paper is the benefit amount claimed during a certain period. As the audit intensity increases with the claim amount, the rational fraudster understands that reducing the amount of fraud decreases the risk of being audited. This type of strategy is denoted information strategy. One main result is that the Erard and Feinstein model can be successfully adapted to benefit fraud. Using coarse estimates of audit unit costs, the result of the study is that all persons should be audited. For higher audit costs, it is shown that the information strategy is much more effective when compared to the segmentation strategy.
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| 7. |
- Armelius, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
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The evolution of the natural rate of interest : evidence from the Scandinavian countries
- 2024
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 66:4, s. 1633-1659
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden is estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85:1063-1070, 2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators--a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle fluctuations. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods on data ranging from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. The results indicate that the natural rate has declined substantially and in all countries is at a low level at the end of the sample.
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| 8. |
- Balleer, Almut, et al.
(författare)
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Labour force participation across Europe : a cohort-based analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 46:4, s. 1385-1415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use a cohort-based model to analyse the determinants of labour force participation in six European economies, focusing on age and cohort effects as factors explaining differences in participation behaviour across countries. Cohort effects are particularly relevant for women with those born in the late 1960s and early 1970s more likely to participate over the life-cycle. Our results suggest that cohort effects can be interpreted as evolving social norms or preferences towards participating in the labour market according to Fernandez (NBER working paper no. 13373, 2007). We find substantial variation in the estimated age and cohort effects across European countries: cohort effects can account for a substantial part of the recent increase in participation in Spain, the Netherlands and Germany, and a positive, but smaller part of in the increase in participation of the UK, Italy and France. Looking forward, positive cohort effects could help counteract the downward impact of population ageing on participation.
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| 9. |
- Battese, G. E., et al.
(författare)
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Efficiency of labour use in the Swedish banking industry : A stochastic frontier approach
- 2000
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 25:4, s. 623-640
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of the deregulation of the Swedish banking industry in the mid-1980s, and the consequent banking crisis, on productive efficiency and productivity growth in the industry. An unbalanced panel of Swedish banks is studied over the period, 1984 to 1995. A total of 1275 observations are analysed for 156 banks that were observed for between two and twelve years. We adopt a translog stochastic frontier model to estimate the labour-use requirements in terms of the variables, loans, deposits, guarantees, number of branches and total inventories, together with the year of observation. The inefficiency effects in the labour-use frontier are modelled in terms of the number of branches, total inventories, the type of bank and year of observation. The technical inefficiencies of labour use of Swedish banks were found to be significant, with mean inefficiencies per year estimated to be between about 8 and 15 per cent over the years of study. However, the confidence interval predictions for these inefficiencies were found to be quite wide.
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| 10. |
- Berggren, Niclas, et al.
(författare)
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Trust and growth : A shaky relationship
- 2008
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Ingår i: Empirical Economics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0377-7332 .- 1435-8921. ; 35:2, s. 251-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We conduct an extensive robustness analysis of the relationship between trust and growth by investigating a later time period and a bigger sample than in previous studies. In addition to robustness tests that focus on model uncertainty, we systematize the investigation of outlier influence on the results by using the robust estimation technique Least Trimmed Squares. We find that when outliers (especially China) are removed, the trust-growth relationship is no longer robust. On average, the trust coefficient is half as large as in previous findings.
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