| 1. |
- Abel, Christin, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting ecosystem vegetation response in global drylands under drying and wetting conditions
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013. ; 29:14, s. 3954-3969
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increasing aridity is one major consequence of ongoing global climate change and is expected to cause widespread changes in key ecosystem attributes, functions, and dynamics. This is especially the case in naturally vulnerable ecosystems, such as drylands. While we have an overall understanding of past aridity trends, the linkage between temporal dynamics in aridity and dryland ecosystem responses remain largely unknown. Here, we examined recent trends in aridity over the past two decades within global drylands as a basis for exploring the response of ecosystem state variables associated with land and atmosphere processes (e.g., vegetation cover, vegetation functioning, soil water availability, land cover, burned area, and vapor-pressure deficit) to these trends. We identified five clusters, characterizing spatiotemporal patterns in aridity between 2000 and 2020. Overall, we observe that 44.5% of all areas are getting dryer, 31.6% getting wetter, and 23.8% have no trends in aridity. Our results show strongest correlations between trends in ecosystem state variables and aridity in clusters with increasing aridity, which matches expectations of systemic acclimatization of the ecosystem to a reduction in water availability/water stress. Trends in vegetation (expressed by leaf area index [LAI]) are affected differently by potential driving factors (e.g., environmental, and climatic factors, soil properties, and population density) in areas experiencing water-related stress as compared to areas not exposed to water-related stress. Canopy height for example, has a positive impact on trends in LAI when the system is stressed but does not impact the trends in non-stressed systems. Conversely, opposite relationships were found for soil parameters such as root-zone water storage capacity and organic carbon density. How potential driving factors impact dryland vegetation differently depending on water-related stress (or no stress) is important, for example within management strategies to maintain and restore dryland vegetation.
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| 2. |
- Abs, Elsa, et al.
(författare)
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Microbial evolution—An under-appreciated driver of soil carbon cycling
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 30:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although substantial advances in predicting the ecological impacts of global change have been made, predictions of the evolutionary impacts have lagged behind. In soil ecosystems, microbes act as the primary energetic drivers of carbon cycling; however, microbes are also capable of evolving on timescales comparable to rates of global change. Given the importance of soil ecosystems in global carbon cycling, we assess the potential impact of microbial evolution on carbon-climate feedbacks in this system. We begin by reviewing the current state of knowledge concerning microbial evolution in response to global change and its specific effect on soil carbon dynamics. Through this integration, we synthesize a roadmap detailing how to integrate microbial evolution into ecosystem biogeochemical models. Specifically, we highlight the importance of microscale mechanistic soil carbon models, including choosing an appropriate evolutionary model (e.g., adaptive dynamics, quantitative genetics), validating model predictions with ‘omics’ and experimental data, scaling microbial adaptations to ecosystem level processes, and validating with ecosystem-scale measurements. The proposed steps will require significant investment of scientific resources and might require 10–20 years to be fully implemented. However, through the application of multi-scale integrated approaches, we will advance the integration of microbial evolution into predictive understanding of ecosystems, providing clarity on its role and impact within the broader context of environmental change.
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| 3. |
- Adler, Anneli
(författare)
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Breeding process and preparedness for mass-scale deployment of perennial ligno-cellulosic biomass crops switchgrass, miscanthus, willow and poplar
- 2019
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 11, s. 118-151
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic improvement through breeding is one of the key approaches to increasing biomass supply. This paper documents the breeding progress to date for four perennial biomass crops (PBCs) that have high output-input energy ratios: namely Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), species of the genera Miscanthus (miscanthus), Salix (willow) and Populus (poplar). For each crop, we report on the size of germplasm collections, the efforts to date to phenotype and genotype, the diversity available for breeding and on the scale of breeding work as indicated by number of attempted crosses. We also report on the development of faster and more precise breeding using molecular breeding techniques. Poplar is the model tree for genetic studies and is furthest ahead in terms of biological knowledge and genetic resources. Linkage maps, transgenesis and genome editing methods are now being used in commercially focused poplar breeding. These are in development in switchgrass, miscanthus and willow generating large genetic and phenotypic data sets requiring concomitant efforts in informatics to create summaries that can be accessed and used by practical breeders. Cultivars of switchgrass and miscanthus can be seed-based synthetic populations, semihybrids or clones. Willow and poplar cultivars are commercially deployed as clones. At local and regional level, the most advanced cultivars in each crop are at technology readiness levels which could be scaled to planting rates of thousands of hectares per year in about 5 years with existing commercial developers. Investment in further development of better cultivars is subject to current market failure and the long breeding cycles. We conclude that sustained public investment in breeding plays a key role in delivering future mass-scale deployment of PBCs.
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| 4. |
- Agrell, Jep, et al.
(författare)
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CO2 and O-3 effects on host plant preferences of the forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria)
- 2005
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 11:4, s. 588-599
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elevated levels of CO2 and O-3 affect plant growth and phytochemistry, which in turn can alter physiological performance of associated herbivores. Little is known, however, about how generalist insect herbivores respond behaviorally to CO2- and O-3-mediated changes in their host plants. This research examined the effects of elevated CO2 and O-3 levels on host plant preferences and consumption of forest tent caterpillar (FTC, Malacosoma disstria Hbn.) larvae. Dual choice feeding assays were performed with foliage from birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx., genotypes 216 and 259). Trees were grown at the Aspen Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) facility near Rhinelander, WI, USA, and had been exposed to ambient or elevated concentrations of CO2 and/or O-3. Levels of nutritional and secondary compounds were quantified through phytochemical analyses. The results showed that elevated O-3 levels increased FTC larval preferences for birch compared with aspen, whereas elevated CO2 levels had the opposite effect. In assays with the two aspen genotypes, addition of both CO2 and O-3 caused a shift in feeding preferences from genotype 259 to genotype 216. Consumption was unaffected by experimental treatments in assays comparing aspen and birch, but were increased for larvae given high O-3 foliage in the aspen genotype assays. Elevated levels of CO2 and O-3 altered tree phytochemistry, but did not explain shifts in feeding preferences. The results demonstrate that increased levels of CO2 and O-3 can alter insect host plant preferences both between and within tree species. Also, consequences of altered host quality (e.g., compensatory consumption) may be buffered by partial host shifts in situations when alternative plant species are available. Environmentally induced changes in host plant preferences may have the potential to alter the distribution of herbivory across plant genotypes and species, as well as competitive interactions among them.
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| 5. |
- Alatalo, Juha, 1966-, et al.
(författare)
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Response to simulated climatic change in an alpine and subarctic pollen-risk strategist, Silene acaulis
- 1997
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2486 .- 1354-1013. ; 3, s. 74-79
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to test if early no overing species respond with increased seed production to climate warming as is predicted for late-flowering seed-risk strategists. Experimental climate warming of about 3 degrees C was applied to two populations of the cushion-forming plant Silene acaulis (L.) Jacq. The experiment was run at one subarctic site and one alpine site for 2 years and 1 year, respectively, using open-top chambers (OTC). The 2-year temperature enhancement at the subarctic site had a marked effect on the flowering phenology. Cushions inside the OTC started flowering substantially earlier than control cushions. Both the male and female phases developed faster in the OTCs, and maturation of capsules occurred earlier. The cushions also responded positively in reproductive terms and produced more mature seeds and had a higher seed/ovule ratio. After 1 year temperature enhancement at the alpine site there was a weak trend for earlier flowering, but there was no significant difference in seed production or seed/ovule ratio.
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| 6. |
- Aldea, Jorge, et al.
(författare)
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Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial–temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960–2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040–2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.
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| 7. |
- Alexander, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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| 8. |
- Algesten, Grete, et al.
(författare)
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Role of lakes for organic carbon cycling in the boreal zone
- 2004
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - Oxford : Blackwell Scientific. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 10:1, s. 141-147
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We calculated the carbon loss (mineralization plus sedimentation) and net CO2 escape to the atmosphere for 79 536 lakes and total running water in 21 major Scandinavian catchments (size range 437–48 263 km2). Between 30% and 80% of the total organic carbon that entered the freshwater ecosystems was lost in lakes. Mineralization in lakes and subsequent CO2 emission to the atmosphere was by far the most important carbon loss process. The withdrawal capacity of lakes on the catchment scale was closely correlated to the mean residence time of surface water in the catchment, and to some extent to the annual mean temperature represented by latitude. This result implies that variation of the hydrology can be a more important determinant of CO2 emission from lakes than temperature fluctuations. Mineralization of terrestrially derived organic carbon in lakes is an important regulator of organic carbon export to the sea and may affect the net exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the boreal landscape.
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| 9. |
- Alison, Jamie, et al.
(författare)
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Deep learning to extract the meteorological by-catch of wildlife cameras
- 2024
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 30:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microclimate—proximal climatic variation at scales of metres and minutes—can exacerbate or mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, most microclimate studies are temperature centric, and do not consider meteorological factors such as sunshine, hail and snow. Meanwhile, remote cameras have become a primary tool to monitor wild plants and animals, even at micro-scales, and deep learning tools rapidly convert images into ecological data. However, deep learning applications for wildlife imagery have focused exclusively on living subjects. Here, we identify an overlooked opportunity to extract latent, ecologically relevant meteorological information. We produce an annotated image dataset of micrometeorological conditions across 49 wildlife cameras in South Africa's Maloti-Drakensberg and the Swiss Alps. We train ensemble deep learning models to classify conditions as overcast, sunshine, hail or snow. We achieve 91.7% accuracy on test cameras not seen during training. Furthermore, we show how effective accuracy is raised to 96% by disregarding 14.1% of classifications where ensemble member models did not reach a consensus. For two-class weather classification (overcast vs. sunshine) in a novel location in Svalbard, Norway, we achieve 79.3% accuracy (93.9% consensus accuracy), outperforming a benchmark model from the computer vision literature (75.5% accuracy). Our model rapidly classifies sunshine, snow and hail in almost 2 million unlabelled images. Resulting micrometeorological data illustrated common seasonal patterns of summer hailstorms and autumn snowfalls across mountains in the northern and southern hemispheres. However, daily patterns of sunshine and shade diverged between sites, impacting daily temperature cycles. Crucially, we leverage micrometeorological data to demonstrate that (1) experimental warming using open-top chambers shortens early snow events in autumn, and (2) image-derived sunshine marginally outperforms sensor-derived temperature when predicting bumblebee foraging. These methods generate novel micrometeorological variables in synchrony with biological recordings, enabling new insights from an increasingly global network of wildlife cameras.
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| 10. |
- Ammar, Yosr, et al.
(författare)
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The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems : The Baltic Sea case
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:7, s. 1485-1499
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosystems. Here, we measured for the rate of novelty (RoN) in abiotic conditions and community structure for three trophic levels, i.e., phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish, in a large marine system - the Baltic Sea. We measured RoN as the degree of dissimilarity relative to a specific spatial and temporal baseline, and contrasted this with the rate of change as a measure of within-basin change over time. We found that over the past 35 years abiotic and biotic RoN showed complex dynamics varying in time and space, depending on the baseline conditions. RoN in abiotic conditions was smaller in the open Central Baltic Sea than in the Kattegat and the more enclosed Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga, and Gulf of Finland in the north. We found a similar spatial pattern for biotic assemblages, which resulted from changes in composition and stock size. We identified sea-surface temperature and salinity as key drivers of RoN in biotic communities. Hence, future environmental changes that are expected to affect the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, may favor the rise of biotic novelty. Our results highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of novelty development in marine ecosystems, including interactions between species and trophic levels, ecosystem functioning under novel abiotic conditions, and considering novelty in future management interventions.
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