| 1. |
- Abou Rafee, Sameh Adib, et al.
(författare)
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Hydrologic response to large-scale land use and cover changes in the Upper Paraná River Basin between 1985 and 2015
- 2021
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 21:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB) has undergone remarkable land use and cover changes (LUCC) in recent decades. This paper analyses the hydrologic response to LUCC in the UPRB between 1985 and 2015, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The impacts of LUCC were examined for annual, wet, and dry season (both during calibrated and validated periods) between 1984 and 2015. The most substantial LUCC were the extensive reduction of the cerrado and the expansion of agriculture areas. The simulations demonstrated that the LUCC caused important changes in basin hydrology. For instance, an increase (decrease) of surface runoff in the wet (dry) season at most UPRB subbasins was observed. In addition, the simulation results revealed a reduction in actual evapotranspiration and an increase in soil moisture in the annual and wet season. Consequently, most of the major rivers of the basin presented an increase (decrease) in their discharge in the wet (dry) period. The major changes in the hydrologic components were observed in the central-western and southern parts of the UPRB. At the river mouth of the UPRB, the LUCC led to an increase in long-term mean discharge values of 4.2% and 1.1% in the annual and wet season and a decrease of about 2.2% in the dry period. This study provides a large-scale modeling and valuable information that could be used to improve planning and sustainable management of future water resources within the basin.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Mikael, et al.
(författare)
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Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage – a simulation study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 15, s. 1489-1500
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We estimated the effect of adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage under climate change on life-style services and forest yield in a south-Swedish forest using an integrated modelling approach. The ECHAM5/CCLM models had been used to produce a reference climate and a climate change scenario for the A1B emission scenario. Using the FinnFor model we estimated the effect of the climate change scenario on the site index for three common commercial tree species for the period 2001-2100. The adjusted site index was applied in projections of the forest using the Forest Time Machine model. The WINDA-GALES model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage in simulated future states of the forest. Effects of increasing forest owner motivation to take measures to adapt to climate change were simulated by comparing the effects of introducing adaptive measures in years 2001 and 2051, respectively. These adaptive measures had been identified in consultation with stakeholders. In the simulations, adaptive regimes resulted in generally increased yield, increased hunting potential and a higher number of forest management operations to be carried out, although other aspects of recreation services were reduced. The net return remained unaffected by most of the adaptive forest management regimes. The simulations were made without accounting for effects of predicted wind damage on the states of the forest. Forest owners perceiving increased risk of wind damage but also risk to their life-style would have to balance adaptive measures between these risks. We conclude that adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage may impact on life-style services. Hence, this may affect the process of adaptation to an increasing risk of wind damage in southern Sweden.
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| 3. |
- Baird, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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Collaborative governance for climate change adaptation in Canada : experimenting with adaptive co-management
- 2016
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 16:3, s. 747-758
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The search for strategies to address 'super wicked problems' such as climate change is gaining urgency, and a collaborative governance approach, and adaptive co-management in particular, is increasingly recognized as one such strategy. However, the conditions for adaptive co-management to emerge and the resulting network structures and relational patterns remain unclear in the literature. To address these identified needs, this study examines social relationships from a network perspective while initiating a collaborative multiactor initiative aimed to develop into adaptive co-management for climate change adaptation, an action research project undertaken in the Niagara region of Canada. The project spanned 1 year, and a longitudinal analysis of participants' networks and level of participation in the process was performed. Evidence of support for climate change adaptation from the process included the development of deliberative and adaptive responses to opportunities presented to the group and the development of a strong subgroup of participants where decision-making was centered. However, the complexity of the challenge of addressing climate change, funding constraints, competing initiatives, and the lack of common views among participants may have contributed to the group, highlighting the finding that beneficial network structural features and relational patterns are necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an adaptive co-management process. The context of climate change adaptation may require a different social network structure and processes than other contexts for adaptive co-management to occur, and there may be limitations to adaptive co-management for dealing with super wicked problems.
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| 4. |
- Barron, Jennie
(författare)
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Towards environmentally sound intensification pathways for dairy development in the Tanga region of Tanzania
- 2020
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The gap between milk demand and domestic supply in Tanzania is large and projected to widen. Meeting such demand through local production of affordable milk presents an opportunity to improve the welfare of producers and market agents through the income and employment generated along the value chain (VC). Efforts to maximize milk yields, production and profitability need to be balanced with long-term sustainability. We combined environmental and economic ex-ante impact assessments of four intervention scenarios for two production systems in the Tanzanian dairy VC using the CLEANED model and an economic feasibility analysis. Intervention scenarios propose increases in milk production through (i) animal genetic improvement, (ii) improved feed, (iii) improved animal health and (iv) a package combining all interventions. Results show that economically feasible farm-level productivity increases of up to 140% go hand-in-hand with increased resource-use efficiency and up to 50% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities. Absolute increases in water, land and nitrogen requirements in mixed crop-livestock systems call for careful management of stocks and quality of these resources. An overall rise in GHG emissions is expected, with a maximum of 53% increase associated with an 89% increase in milk supply at VC level. The CLEANED tool proved effective to evaluate livestock interventions that improve incomes and food security with minimal environmental footprint. Here, our simulations suggest that due to current low productivity, the greatest efficiency gains in combination with relatively low increases in total GHG emissions can be made in the extensive agro-pastoral dairy systems, which represent the majority of herds.
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| 5. |
- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Global change impacts on the Upper Danube Catchment (Central Europe): a study of participatory modeling
- 2016
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 16:6, s. 1595-1611
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential concept in environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources. In this paper, we focus on the use of PM to support the development of the integrated regional modeling system DANUBIA as a scientific concept to analyze the previously unknown impacts of global change, i.e. the combined effects of climate, demographic, economic, social and ecological change, on the Upper Danube Catchment (Germany). We use this case study to examine the specific conditions for PM in the field of complex integrated models on a regional scale. We describe the stepwise PM process and discuss the respective results, focusing on (i) the stakeholder dialogue’s contribution in supporting the development of new, complex modeling systems, particularly on a regional scale, (ii) conditions of stakeholder involvement in issues related to the distant future, such as climate change impacts on regional water availability, and (iii) limitations of PM and scientists’ motivation to carry out participatory research at all. We conclude that the PM process was not entirely successful in improving the scientific quality and practical applicability of the developed models because the process goals were manifold and overambitious, and the definition of the problem of “global change impacts on a regional scale” was too weak and uncertain to allow for a clear common objective of modelers and stakeholders. We claim that there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities.
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| 6. |
- Barua, Anamika, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change and poverty: building resilience of rural mountain communities in South Sikkim, Eastern Himalaya, India
- 2014
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:1, s. 267-280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rural mountain communities have long faced challenges from a range of social, economic, political and environmental factors and the threat from these factors has only intensified due to the current climate change. This study was conducted in South Sikkim, a mountain region located in the Indian Eastern Himalaya, to get a deeper insight of the multitude of barriers and stresses that a poor rural mountain community experiences. The purpose of the study was to get community’s perception on the kind of interventions that they consider important to lift them out of poverty and enhance their resilience to manage climate risk. The analysis is based on focus group discussions and household survey, using a multidimensional poverty assessment tool. The study highlights that the vulnerability of the study region to climate change is not concentrated to physical or geographical factors alone, but mostly to the socio-economic factors like lack of access to education, health care, limited livelihood opportunities, limited resources, etc. People consider that these non-climatic factors act as barriers for them to overcome poverty, contribute to their weak resilience, and make it extremely difficult for them to manage the risk posed by climate change. The study therefore suggests that it is of utmost importance that the interventions are planned in ways that address the multidimensional poverty in the region which in turn will enhance community’s inherent capacity to adapt to current as well as future climate risk.
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| 7. |
- Baumann, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
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Land-use change in the Caucasus during and after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
- 2015
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 15:8, s. 1703-1716
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Socioeconomic shocks can shape future land-use trajectories. Armed conflicts are an extreme form of a socioeconomic shock, but our understanding of how armed conflicts affect land-use change is limited. Our goal was to assess land-use changes related to the 1991–1994 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus region. We classified multi-temporal Landsat imagery, mapped land-use changes during and after the conflict, and applied matching statistics to isolate the effect of the conflict from other potential drivers of land change. In our study area, local land-use changes were dominated by high farmland abandonment rates of more than 60 % in the conflict zone. Concomitantly, we found a substantial displacement of agricultural activities into nearby Azerbaijani territory (>30 % of all abandoned land in the conflict zone was offset by new agricultural areas on Azerbaijani territory), likely as a consequence of refugee migrations. After the armed conflict ceased, only 17 % of the abandoned fields were re-cultivated, indicating that the land-use system may have transformed profoundly. Our results showed that an armed conflict can have substantial impact on land use. Spatially, our results indicated that armed conflicts may cause lasting land-use change in areas distant from the actual battlegrounds, representing an example of a distant linkage in land systems, in our case caused by refugee movements. Temporally, armed conflicts appear to be able to cause a transition of the land-use system into a new state, akin to other drastic socioeconomic shocks.
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| 8. |
- Bodin, Örjan, et al.
(författare)
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Working at the "speed of trust" : pre-existing and emerging social ties in wildfire responder networks in Sweden and Canada
- 2019
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 19:8, s. 2353-2364
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The frequency and severity of natural hazards are predicted to increase with climate change. Collaboration among actors across scales and organizational boundaries is essential to address this escalation. Pre-existing social networks are generally considered a catalyst enabling actors to more quickly address collective action problems. However, empirically derived knowledge about if, how, and why pre-established social networks facilitate effective collaborations in addressing natural hazards is scarce. We use survey data from crisis responders of large-scale wildfires in Sweden and Canada to investigate factors that shape actors’ (i) ability and willingness to form new social ties with other actors and (ii) propensity to “activate” pre-existing social ties. Our results show that many new social ties were established in both events, but also that pre-existing ties comprised a considerable proportion (54–82%) of all ties in use. Using exponential random graph models for temporal networks, we demonstrate that two actors that are working with or have previously worked with a common third actor are more likely to activate pre-existing social ties. Further, new social ties tend to be formed around a few central actors, whereas the opposite seems to apply for the activation of pre-existing ties. The extent to which actors consider others’ organizational affiliation, formal role, previous experience, and level of professionalization differs between the cases. We suggest these tie formation and activation differences can be attributed to diverging organizational contexts varying in their reliance upon self-organizing versus command-and-control approaches.
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| 9. |
- Bruckmeier, Karl, 1952
(författare)
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Problems of cross-scale coastal management in Scandinavia
- 2014
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 14:6, s. 2151-2160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transdisciplinary knowledge integration and cross-scale management remain challenges in coastal management after several decades of research and experience with integrated and sustainable coastal management. The aim of this paper is to identify requirements for knowledge integration and development of multi-scale approaches to coastal management through reviewing and re-analysing three Swedish-European research projects: the SUCOZOMA project about sustainable coastal zone management, the FRAP project about conflicts between coastal fishery and species protection, and the SECOA project about solutions to contrasts in coastal metropolitan areas. The strategy of adaptive governance is considered in the light of its ability to assess knowledge requirements for sustainable resource management under conditions of climate change.
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| 10. |
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