| 1. |
- Amsteus, Martin
(författare)
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Managerial foresight : measurement scale and estimation
- 2011
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Ingår i: Foresight. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 13:1, s. 58-76
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – This paper aims to develop and assess an instrument measuring managerial foresight. Design/methodology/approach – The paper outlines the construction and estimation of the instrumentthrough a seven-step process. A total of 57 preliminary Likert items were developed based on an extantreview and synthesis of definitions of foresight. The items were assessed through interviews andpre-testing. A preliminary instrument was administered to a selection of managers. Exploratory andconfirmatory factor analyses were employed to assess sub-scales and model fit. The instrument wasevaluated in terms of reliability and validity. Findings – The study demonstrates a valid and reliable 12 Likert item scale for measuring managerialforesight.Research limitations/implications – Managerial foresight can now be assessed and tested forassociation with, for example, managerial or organizational performance variables. Practical implications – Managers can now be assessed and compared in terms of foresight.Originality/value – In developing and estimating an instrument for measuring managerial foresight, thepaper advances foresight into a quantitatively measurable concept.
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| 2. |
- Amsteus, Martin
(författare)
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Managerial foresight: concept and measurement
- 2008
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Ingår i: Foresight. - : Emerald. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 10:1, s. 53-66
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish what foresight is, to review past usages anddefinitions of foresight and to synthesize them into one generic definition, in order to make the conceptmeasurable.Design/methodology/approach – A discussion on how to classify variables in the social sciencesserves as the starting-point. Next, a review of past definitions and usages of the concept foresight isfollowed by further analysis and then synthesizing of the generic definition. The generic definition isfinally compared and contrasted with the related concepts of forecasting, strategic analysis, andintuition.Findings – Foresight is defined as behavior along three dimensions: degree of analyzing presentcontingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time; degree ofanalyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies undercontrol; and degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired futurestate.Research limitations/implications – The article makes foresight quantitatively measurable, which inturn makes it possible to empirically measure the existence of foresight among managers and to test therelationship between foresight and organizational performance.Practical implications – Practical foresight tools and programs, etc. can now be assessed andcompared by both practitioners and researchers.Originality/value – In identifying three fundamental behavioral dimensions of foresight, the articleconceives and advances foresight as a distinct concept that can be related to several research areas,both on individual (e.g. managerial) and organizational levels.
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| 3. |
- Amsteus, Martin
(författare)
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Managers' foresight matters
- 2011
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Ingår i: Foresight. - : Emerald. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 13:2, s. 64-78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – To assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.Design/methodology/approach – An evolutionary perspective is deployed to specify thepresumed relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance measures. Apositive relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance is proposed. Thehypothesis is tested through Spearman’s rho, on Swedish managers, and firms in the computerprogramming industry. Managers’ foresight as well as performance is assessed as indexes.Findings – A moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers’foresight and firm performance.Theoretical implications – There is support for the theoretical relationship betweenmanagerial foresight and firm performance. There is a strong rationale for further studies.Originality/value – The paper provides empirical evidence regarding the importance ofmanagerial foresight for firm performance.
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| 4. |
- Arvidsson, Niklas, 1964-
(författare)
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A study of turbulence in the Swedish payment system – is there a way forward?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Foresight. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 16:5, s. 462-482
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this study is to understand turbulence in the field of payments in Europe and which future challenges this bring. The objective is to enable actors – industrial as well as policy-making agencies – to avoid becoming passive and reluctant to take needed steps that may realize a new playing field for payments.
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| 5. |
- Baum, Seth D., et al.
(författare)
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Long-term trajectories of human civilization
- 2019
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Ingår i: Foresight. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 21:11, s. 53-83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist. Design/methodology/approach: This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings: Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Originality/value: Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.
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| 6. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic exploration of scenario spaces
- 2016
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Ingår i: Foresight. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 18:1, s. 59-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose - Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings - The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value - The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.
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| 7. |
- Häggström, Olle, 1967
(författare)
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Challenges to the Omohundro-Bostrom framework for AI motivations
- 2019
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Ingår i: Foresight. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 21:1, s. 153-166
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the futurology of a possible artificial intelligence (AI) breakthrough, by reexamining the Omohundro-Bostrom theory for instrumental vs final AI goals. Does that theory, along with its predictions for what a superintelligent AI would be motivated to do, hold water? Design/methodology/approach The standard tools of systematic reasoning and analytic philosophy are used to probe possible weaknesses of Omohundro-Bostrom theory from four different directions: self-referential contradictions, Tegmark's physics challenge, moral realism and the messy case of human motivations. Findings The two cornerstones of Omohundro-Bostrom theory - the orthogonality thesis and the instrumental convergence thesis - are both open to various criticisms that question their validity and scope. These criticisms are however far from conclusive: while they do suggest that a reasonable amount of caution and epistemic humility is attached to predictions derived from the theory, further work will be needed to clarify its scope and to put it on more rigorous foundations. Originality/value The practical value of being able to predict AI goals and motivations under various circumstances cannot be overstated: the future of humanity may depend on it. Currently, the only framework available for making such predictions is Omohundro-Bostrom theory, and the value of the present paper is to demonstrate its tentative nature and the need for further scrutiny.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Khakee, Abdul, et al.
(författare)
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Understanding multiple aspects of present space with the help of future scenarios : the case of Izmir, Turkey
- 2015
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Ingår i: Foresight. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 17:6, s. 588-598
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – This paper aims to make use of participatory scenarios to assess the multiple aspects of space with the help of future scenarios. Design/methodology/approach – This paper makes an attempt to appreciate multiple representations of space where past and present experiences merge with future desires and concerns. With the help of one case study, Izmir (Turkey), where a vision of democratic city is developed, the paper shows how future scenarios can provide deeper and richer appreciation of present space, thereby challenging existing spatial practices. Findings – The participatory approach used in the development of scenarios suggests interesting implications to operationalise a more relational concept of space in real planning strategies. Research limitations/implications – The use of scenarios in strategic planning to identify future possibilities and to make stakeholders aware of uncertainties has been increasingly recognised in planning research and practice. Practical implications – The appreciation of the multiple aspects of space with the help of future scenarios would enrich the spatial planning practice. Social implications – The use of participatory approach to preparing scenarios enables participants to make use of interactive method in social and political discourses. Originality/value – The use of scenarios to examine various aspects of space that may be relevant in spatial planning has not received similar attention. The latter poses methodological as well as practical challenges for researchers. This paper is an attempt to do just that.
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