| 1. |
- Almeida, Rafael M., et al.
(författare)
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Correspondence : Emissions from Amazonian dams
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 3:12, s. 1005-1005
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 2. |
- Angeler, David
(författare)
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Shifting avian spatial regimes in a changing climate
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9, s. 562-566
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the present era of rapid global change, development of early warnings of ecological regime shifts is a major focus in ecology. Identifying and tracking shifts in spatial regimes is a new approach with potential to enhance understanding of ecological responses to global change. Here, we show strong directional non-stationarity of spatial regimes identified by avian community body mass data. We do this by tracking 46 years of avian spatial regime movement in the North American Great Plains. The northernmost spatial regime boundary moved >590 km northward, and the southernmost boundary moved >260 km northward. Tracking spatial regimes affords decadal planning horizons and moves beyond the predominately temporal early warnings of the past by providing spatiotemporally explicit detection of regime shifts in systems without fixed boundaries.
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| 3. |
- Antão, Laura H., et al.
(författare)
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Climate change reshuffles northern species within their niches
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12:6, s. 587-592
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are a known consequence of climate warming contributing to regional community change, less is known about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance of different climatic variables prompting such shifts varies with changing climate remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades of data for 1,478 species of birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along a 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change. While species turnover among decades was limited, the relative position of species within their climatic niche shifted substantially. A greater proportion of species responded to climatic change at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger. These diverging climate imprints restructure a full biome, making it difficult to generalize biodiversity responses and raising concerns about ecosystem integrity in the face of accelerating climate change.
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| 4. |
- Asayama, Shinichiro, et al.
(författare)
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Three institutional pathways to envision the future of the IPCC
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Portfolio. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:9, s. 877-880
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IPCC has been successful at building its scientific authority, but it will require institutional reform for staying relevant to new and changing political contexts. Exploring a range of alternative future pathways for the IPCC can help guide crucial decisions about redefining its purpose.
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| 5. |
- Audet, Joachim
(författare)
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Synergy between nutrients and warming enhances methane ebullition from experimental lakes
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8, s. 156-160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes and ponds are important natural sources of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4), with small shallow waters identified as particular hotspots(1,2). Ebullition (bubbles) of CH4 makes up a large proportion of total CH4 flux(3,4). However, difficulty measuring such episodic events(5) makes prediction of how ebullition responds to nutrient enrichment and rising temperatures challenging. Here, the world's longest running, mesocosm-based, shallow lake climate change experiment was used to investigate how the combination of warming and eutrophication (that is, nutrient enrichment) affects CH4 ebullition. Eutrophication without heating increased the relative contribution of ebullition from 51% to 75%. More strikingly the combination of nutrient enrichment and experimental warming treatments of +2-3 degrees C and +4-5 degrees C had a synergistic effect, increasing mean annual ebullition by at least 1900 mg CH4-C m(-2) yr(-1). In contrast, diffusive flux showed no response to eutrophication and only a small increase at higher temperatures (average 63 mg CH4-C m(-2) yr(-1)). As shallow lakes are the most common lake type globally, abundant in highly climate sensitive regions(6) and most vulnerable to eutrophication, these results suggest their current and future contributions to atmospheric CH4 concentrations may be significantly underestimated.
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| 6. |
- Bain, Paul G., et al.
(författare)
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Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 6, s. 154-157
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles1, 2, 3, 4, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries5, 6. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change7 could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits8, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.
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| 7. |
- Barnes, Michele L., et al.
(författare)
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Social determinants of adaptive and transformative responses to climate change
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10:9, s. 823-828
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To cope effectively with the impacts of climate change, people will need to change existing practices or behaviours within existing social-ecological systems (adaptation) or enact more fundamental changes that can alter dominant social-ecological relationships and create new systems or futures (transformation). Here we use multilevel network modelling to examine how different domains of adaptive capacity-assets, flexibility, organization, learning, socio-cognitive constructs and agency-are related to adaptive and transformative actions. We find evidence consistent with an influence process in which aspects of social organization (exposure to others in social networks) encourage both adaptive and transformative actions among Papua New Guinean islanders experiencing climate change impacts. Adaptive and transformative actions are also related to social-ecological network structures between people and ecological resources that enable learning and the internalization of ecological feedbacks. Agency is also key, yet we show that while perceived power may encourage adaptations, it may discourage more transformative actions. Multilevel network modelling shows that social network exposure promotes both adaptive and transformative responses to climate change among Papua New Guinean islanders. Different social-ecological network structures are associated with adaptation versus transformation.
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| 8. |
- Barrett, Scott, et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of collective action to uncertainty about climate tipping points
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 4:1, s. 36-39
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite more than two decades of diplomatic effort, concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to trend upwards, creating the risk that we may someday cross a threshold for 'dangerous' climate change. Although climate thresholds are very uncertain, new research is trying to devise 'early warning signals' of an approaching tipping point. This research offers a tantalizing promise: whereas collective action fails when threshold uncertainty is large, reductions in this uncertainty may bring about the behavioural change needed to avert a climate 'catastrophe'. Here we present the results of an experiment, rooted in a game-theoretic model, showing that behaviour differs markedly either side of a dividing line for threshold uncertainty. On one side of the dividing line, where threshold uncertainty is relatively large, free riding proves irresistible and trust illusive, making it virtually inevitable that the tipping point will be crossed. On the other side, where threshold uncertainty is small, the incentive to coordinate is strong and trust more robust, often leading the players to avoid crossing the tipping point. Our results show that uncertainty must be reduced to this 'good' side of the dividing line to stimulate the behavioural shift needed to avoid 'dangerous' climate change. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Berg, Alexis, et al.
(författare)
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Land-atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 6:9, s. 869-874
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, E p) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land-atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface's response to climate and CO 2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO 2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.
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| 10. |
- Berghuijs, Wouter R., et al.
(författare)
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Groundwater recharge is sensitive to changing long-term aridity
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 14, s. 357-363
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainable groundwater use relies on adequate rates of groundwater recharge, which are expected to change with climate change. However, climate impacts on recharge remain uncertain due to a paucity of measurements of recharge trends globally. Here we leverage the relationship between climatic aridity and long-term recharge measurements at 5,237 locations globally to identify regions where recharge is most sensitive to changes in climatic aridity. Recharge is most sensitive to climate changes in regions where potential evapotranspiration slightly exceeds precipitation, meaning even modest aridification can substantially decrease groundwater recharge. Future climate-induced recharge changes are expected to be dominated by precipitation changes, whereby changes in groundwater recharge will be amplified relative to precipitation changes. Recharge is more sensitive to changes in aridity than global hydrological models suggest. Consequently, the effects of climatic changes on groundwater replenishment and their impacts on the sustainability of groundwater use by humans and ecosystems probably exceed previous predictions.
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