| 1. |
- Bocker, L., et al.
(författare)
-
Integrated Weather Effects on Cycling Shares, Frequencies, and Durations in Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Weather Climate and Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 1948-8327 .- 1948-8335. ; 6:4, s. 468-481
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the increasing societal interest in climate change, health, accessibility, and liveability and subsequent policy aims to promote active transport modes over car usage, many scholars have investigated the relationship between weather and cycling. Existing studies, however, hardly address the effects of weather on cycling durations and often lack assessments of the combined effects of different meteorological variables and potential nonlinearity of these effects. Drawing on travel diary data from a panel study of 945 Greater Rotterdam respondents (the Netherlands), this paper investigates and compares the effects of different meteorological variables, singly as well as combined, on cycling frequencies, cycling durations, and the exchange between cycling and other transport modes. Results show linear negative effects of precipitation sum and wind speed and nonlinear bell-shaped effects of thermal variables on cycling and opposite effects on car usage. Out of three thermal variables investigated, mean radiant temperature (radiant heat exchange between humans and the environment) and physiological equivalent temperature (an index combining the effects of air temperature, mean radiant temperature, air humidity, and wind speed) better explain cycling behavior than just air temperature. Optimum thermal conditions for cycling were found on days with maximum air temperatures around 24 degrees C, mean radiant temperatures around 52 degrees C, and physiological equivalent temperatures around 30 degrees C. Policy and planning implications are highlighted that could reduce cyclists' exposures to disadvantageous weather conditions such as heat, precipitation, and wind, at present and in a potentially changing climate.
|
|
| 2. |
- Herngren Leppert, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
-
Accounting for Geographic Basis Risk in Heat Index Insurance: How Spatial Interpolation Can Reduce the Cost of Risk
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Weather, climate, and society. - 1948-8327 .- 1948-8335. ; 13, s. 273-286
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme heat events cause periodic damage to crop yields and may pose a threat to the income of farmers. Weather index insurance provides payouts to farmers in the case of measurable weather extremes to keep production going. However, its viability depends crucially on the accuracy of local weather indices to predict yield damages from adverse weather conditions. So far, extreme heat indices are poorly represented in weather index insurance. In this study, we construct indices of extreme heat using observations at the nearest weather station and estimates for each county using three interpolation techniques: inverse-distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and regression kriging. Applying these indices to insurance against heat damage to corn in Illinois and Iowa, we show that heat index insurance reduces relative risk premiums by 27%-29% and that interpolated indices outperform the nearest-neighbor index by around 2%-3% in terms of relative risk reduction. Further, we find that the advantage of interpolation over a nearest-neighbor index in terms of relative risk reduction increases as the sample of weather stations is reduced. These findings suggest that heat index insurance can work even when weather data are spatially sparse, which delivers important implications for insurance practice and policy makers. Further, our public code repository provides a rich toolbox of methods to be used for other perils, crops, and regions. Our results are therefore not only replicable but also constitute a cornerstone for projects to come.Significance Statement Extreme heat is an important threat to crops and one that could be exacerbated by climate change. Heat index insurance that compensates farmers when temperatures reach destructive levels has been promoted to reduce moral hazard or as an option where traditional insurance is difficult to implement, such as in developing countries where transaction costs can be prohibitive. This study is to our knowledge the first paper to simultaneously design heat indices using interpolation, simulating the amount of risk farmers would avoid from purchasing index insurance, and show how the risk management effectiveness of the contracts depend on the access to weather stations. We show that heat index insurance significantly reduces risk to corn producers in two states in the U.S. Midwest and corroborate recent results that interpolated temperature estimates outperform observations at local weather stations.
|
|
| 3. |
- Nohrstedt, Daniel, 1974-
(författare)
-
Bonding and Bridging Relationships in Collaborative Forums Responding to Weather Warnings
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Weather, Climate, and Society. - : AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC. - 1948-8327 .- 1948-8335. ; 10:3, s. 521-536
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Collaborative forums involving multiple stakeholders responding to natural hazards are prevalent, yet there is little conclusive evidence of how stakeholders exchange information across such forums and how different patterns of information exchange influence forum goals. This study analyzes information exchange among representatives of 51 organizations across 50 collaborative forums in response to weather warnings in Sweden, 2011-15. Using coded transcripts from forum meetings, the study estimates exponential random graph models to document the prevalence of network configurations of organizations across these forums. The results show that actors avoid engaging in information exchanges within closed subgroups and that no specific type or organization was particularly active in exchanging information. The study suggests that the forum structures are consistent with short-term operational goals as well as the long-term objective of these forums to sustain collaboration over time. The study discusses potential explanations for these patterns and implications for forum performance in relation to natural hazards management.
|
|
| 4. |
- Sandell Festin, Emma
(författare)
-
Comparing Smallholder Farmers' Perception of Climate Change with Meteorological Data: Experience from Seven Agroecological Zones of Tanzania
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Weather, climate, and society. - 1948-8327 .- 1948-8335. ; 10, s. 435-452
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper examines and compares smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change with the collected meteorological data (1980-2015) across the seven agroecological zones (AEZs) of Tanzania. Systematic and simple random sampling procedures were employed in the selection of districts and villages, respectively. This study used both quantitative and qualitative datasets. Quantitative data were derived from climatic records and questionnaires, while the qualitative data were widely derived from interviews and discussions. The Mann-Kendall test (software) and theme content (method) were used for data analyses. The results showed that rain has experienced a significant change in terms of patterns, frequency, and intensity, while temperature was locally increasing in all the AEZs. Moreover, the farmers' responses to both closed and open questions indicated that most of them (>70%) noticed these alterations. Comparatively, the farmers residing in the most vulnerable AEZs, that is, arid and semiarid lands, were more responsive and sensitive to climatic impacts than those in the least vulnerable zones, such as alluvial regions. The increase in temperature and change in the rain patterns led to the decrease in crop yields. As a response to this, farmers have adopted new strategies such as early planting and the use of shorter growing crops cultivars. This study concludes that, although farmers' perceptions were correct and echoed the meteorological/measured data in all the AEZs, adaptation and mitigation strategies are inadequate.
|
|
