| 1. |
- Akperov, Mirseid, et al.
(författare)
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Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
- 2023
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - 2213-3054. ; 44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.
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| 2. |
- Cai, Zipan, et al.
(författare)
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Urban spatial dynamic modeling based on urban amenity data to inform smart city planning
- 2023
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-3054. ; 42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An ideal form of smart city planning would focus on the availability of urban amenities that can meet the basic needs of a resident's material life, civil connections, and humanistic spirit. Previous studies have concentrated on analyzing the spatial distribution of urban services, with less attention on their contribution as local urban amenities. In this study, we propose a spatial dynamic modeling approach based on urban amenities using social media data from Google Place API to provide locational information on potential resident interactions. We use a representative region in Europe (Stockholm County, SE) to simulate and project urban development in the region until 2050. Our circular conceptual framework of spatial information and feedback supports decision-makers in testing possible urban planning scenarios that align with the vision of a smart city. Simulation results reveal the interplay between human-land interactions on a specific spatial-temporal scale, and we analyze scenario outcomes in relation to commercial and residential land uses. Overall, our study provides a new perspective on human-social behavior-driven urban development, through a smart, spatial dynamic model as a planning support system that can enhance realism, and ultimately help realize planned development objectives in the region.
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| 3. |
- Guédron, S., et al.
(författare)
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Reconstructing two millennia of copper and silver metallurgy in the Lake Titicaca region (Bolivia/Peru) using trace metals and lead isotopic composition
- 2021
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier. - 2213-3054. ; 34
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Copper, silver, and gold exploitation has been a foundation of economic and socio-cultural development of Andean societies, at least for the last three millennia. The main centers of pre-colonial metallurgy are well-known from archeological artifacts, but temporal gaps inherent in this record handicap a finer understanding of the modalities of ore exploitation by succeeding civilizations. A continuous record over time of trace metals emitted during ore smelting operations make lake sediments excellent candidates to fill those gaps. Two millennia of metallurgy were reconstructed from atmospherically derived metals together with lead (Pb) isotope ratios in two dated sediment cores from Lake Titicaca. The first evidence for metallurgy is found during the apogee of the Tiwanaku state (AD 800–1150), with a higher copper (Cu) accumulation that can be attributed to the smelting of local Cu ores, based on Pb isotopic fingerprinting. During the Late Intermediate Period (AD 1150–1450), recorded peaks in metal deposition that persisted for ∼ twenty years show that mining activities were intensive but discontinuous. Pb isotope ratios suggest diversified extractive activities, mainly located in the southern part of the central Altiplano. Finally, the most intense mining epoch began during the Inca Empire (ca. AD 1500) and lasted until the end of the Colonial Period (AD 1830), with unprecedented metal deposition over this interval. Pb isotope fingerprinting shows that mining operations occurred mainly in the Lake Titicaca and Potosi areas and were responsible for metal emissions recorded in the entire Altiplano, as evidenced by other studies.
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| 4. |
- Hörnberg, Greger, et al.
(författare)
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Anthropogenic use of fire led to degraded scots pine-lichen forest in northern Sweden
- 2018
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Ingår i: ANTHROPOCENE. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-3054. ; 24, s. 14-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Northern pine-lichen forests are generally regarded as natural ecosystems that, in the past, were repeatedly affected by wild fires. This paper presents and tests a new hypothesis that reindeer herders used recurrent fires to promote and sustain reindeer lichen-dominated ground vegetation, in order to maintain good winter-grazing grounds in Scots pine forests. We investigated vegetation and fire history in three pine-lichen forests along the Lulealven River in northernmost Sweden. Methods included analyses of pollen, spores, charcoal and soil nutrient capital, coupled with investigation of written historical sources and previous studies. Results suggest that recurrent, intermediate-interval fires started sometime between the 2nd and 8th centuries CE, i.e. at the same time that reindeer became semidomesticated in this region. Such fires continued until the 18th century, when introduction of active fire suppression reduced the occurrence of fire in the landscape. Repeated burning over this long period eventually depleted the soil-nutrient capital, especially nitrogen and phosphorous, thereby severely reducing productivity. In the early 20th century, foresters described such forests as degraded. Results of this study add a new dimension to understanding the genesis and history of many pine-lichen forests. They challenge the notion that reindeer herders have been reluctant, in the past, to use fire. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether a similar history can be ascribed to pine-lichen forests in other parts of northern Fennoscandia. (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 5. |
- Lindholm, Karl-Johan, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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A framework for exploring and managing biocultural heritage
- 2019
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier. - 2213-3054. ; 25
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The conceptual framework of biocultural heritage allows for new approaches to heritage, nature conservation, landscape planning and development goals, providing means to negotiate management goals in these areas, and in certain cases, also to combine them. By reviewing knowledge from the literature, this paper develops a new conceptual framework of biocultural heritage. Five "elements" constitute biocultural heritage in this framework. First, ecosystem memories denote biophysical properties, non-human organisms and agents changed or affected directly or indirectly by humans. Second, landscape memories represent tangible materialised human practice and semi-intangible ways of organising landscapes, such as built environments and archaeological sites, and settlement systems linked to user and property rights. Third, place-based memories refer to intangible living features of human knowledge and communication expressed in know-how, place names, orature, arts, ideas and culture, received, preserved and transmitted over generations. The fourth element, integrated landscape analysis, denotes a toolbox and a conceptual framework for knowledge construction and landscape management. The final fifth element of biocultural heritage, stewardship and change, represents the activity of, and ability in, exploring memory reservoirs of biocultural heritage for transferring knowledge to policy and management and for shaping collaborative initiatives. To illustrate the framework, this paper then presents a study from the village Angersjo located in the boreal forest in central Sweden. As conclusion, we suggest that the approach - with improvements and modifications - represents an operational joint framework for exploring and managing biocultural heritage, drawing on the past for envisioning the future. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Mulligan, Joe, et al.
(författare)
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Hybrid infrastructures, hybrid governance : New evidence from Nairobi (Kenya) on green-blue-grey infrastructure in informal settlements "Urban hydroclimatic risks in the 21st century: Integrating engineering, natural, physical and social sciences to build resilience"
- 2020
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 2213-3054. ; 29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In expanding informal neighborhoods of cities in sub-Saharan Africa, sustainable management of storm and wastewater drainage is fundamental to improving living conditions. Planners debate the optimal combination between "green" or natural infrastructure, traditional "grey" infrastructure, and "blue" infrastructure, which mimics natural solutions using artificial materials. Many advocate for small-scale, niche experiments with these approaches in informal settings, in order to learn how to navigate the intrinsic constraints of space, contested land tenure, participation, and local maintenance. This paper reports the benefits and limitations of implementing and managing local green, blue and grey infrastructure solutions in an urban informal setting. We studied ten completed public space projects that featured urban drainage infrastructure in the informal neighborhood of Kibera, Nairobi. The analysis drew from ten surveys with project designers and seven semi-structured interviews with site managers. The studied spaces featured different combinations of green, grey, and blue drainage infrastructure that have evolved over years of operation, maintenance, and change in the settlement. All projects featured participation in design, mixed design methods, hybrid infrastructure, and community governance models with potential to interact successfully with municipal actors. Results show that involvement in the co-development of small-scale green infrastructure changed people's valuation, perception, and stewardship of nature-based systems and ecosystem services. These results have implications for the larger scale adoption, integration, and management of urban drainage infrastructure. They also suggest that hybrid systems of infrastructure and governance constitute a resilient approach to incremental and inclusive upgrading.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Mustaphi, Colin J. Courtney, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating evidence of land use and land cover change for land management policy formulation along the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands
- 2019
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 2213-3054. ; 28
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents an overview of the scientific evidence providing insights into long term ecosystem and social dynamics across the northern Tanzania and southern Kenya borderlands. The data sources covered a range from palaeoenvironmental records and archaeological information to remote sensing and social science studies that examined human-environmental interactions and land use land cover changes (LULCC) in the region. This knowledge map of published LULCC research contributes to current debates about the drivers and dynamics of LULCC. The review aims to facilitate both multidisciplinary LULCC research and evidence-based policy analyses to improve familiarity and engagement between LULCC knowledge producers and end-users and to motivate research integration for land management policy formulation. Improving familiarity among researchers and non-academic stakeholders through the collation and synthesis of the scientific literature is among the challenges hindering policy formulation and land management decision-making by various stakeholders along the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands. Knowledge syntheses are necessary; yet, do not fully bridge the gap between knowledge and policy action. Cooperation across the science-policy interface is fundamental for the co-production of research questions by academics, policy makers and diverse stakeholders aimed at supporting land management decision making. For improved co-development and co-benefitting outcomes, the LULCC scientific community needs to mobilise knowledge for a broader audience and to advance co-development of relevant and meaningful LULCC products. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Ning, W., et al.
(författare)
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Anthropogenic and climatic impacts on a coastal environment in the Baltic Sea over the last 1000 years
- 2018
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier. - 2213-3054. ; 21, s. 66-79
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coastal environments have experienced large ecological changes as a result of human activities over the last 100−200 years. To understand the severity and potential consequences of such changes, paleoenvironmental records provide important contextual information. The Baltic Sea coastal zone is naturally a vulnerable system and subject to significant human-induced impacts. To put the recent environmental degradation in the Baltic coastal zone into a long-term perspective, and to assess the natural and anthropogenic drivers of environmental change, we present sedimentary records covering the last 1000 years obtained from a coastal inlet (Gåsfjärden) and a nearby lake (Lake Storsjön) in Sweden. We investigate the links between a pollen-based land cover reconstruction from Lake Storsjön and paleoenvironmental variables from Gåsfjärden itself, including diatom assemblages,organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) contents, stable C and N isotopic ratios, and biogenic silica contents. The Lake Storsjön record shows that regional land use was characterized by small-scale agricultural activity between 900 and 1400 CE, which slightly intensified between 1400 and 1800 CE. Substantial expansion of cropland was observed between 1800 and 1950 CE, before afforestation between 1950 and 2010 CE. From the Gåsfjärden record, prior to 1800 CE, relatively minor changes in the diatom and geochemical proxies were found. The onset of cultural eutrophication in Gåsfjärden can be traced to the 1800s and intensified land use is identified as the main driver. Anthropogenic activities in the 20th century have caused unprecedented ecosystem changes in the coastal inlet, as reflected in the diatom composition and geochemical proxies.
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| 10. |
- Page, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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A more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in urban landscapes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-3054. ; 34
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding interactions between complex human and natural systems involved in urban carbon cycling is important when balancing the dual goals of urban development to accommodate a growing population, while also achieving urban carbon neutrality. This study develops a systems breakdown accounting method to assess the urban carbon cycle. The method facilitates greater understanding of the complex interactions within and between systems involved in this cycle, in order to identify ways in which humans can adapt their interactions to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from urban regions. Testing the systems breakdown accounting method in Stockholm County, Sweden, we find that it provides new insights into the carbon interactions with urban green-blue areas in the region. Results show how Stockholm County can reduce its emissions and achieve its goal of local carbon net-neutrality, if the green areas protect its carbon sequestration potential and maintain it to offset projected remaining active emissions. Results also show that the inland surface waters and inner archipelago waters within Stockholm County are a considerable source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. A better understanding of these water emissions is necessary to formulate effective planning and policy measures that can reduce urban emissions. The insights gained from this study can also be applied in other regions. In particular, water bodies could play a significant role in the urban carbon cycle and using this knowledge for more complete carbon accounting, and a better understanding of green-blue interactions could help to reduce net urban emissions in many places.
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