| 1. |
- Berchtold, Florian, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainty modelling in metamodels for fire risk analysis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Safety. - : MDPI AG. - 2313-576X. ; 7:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In risk-related research of fire safety engineering, metamodels are often applied to approximate the results of complex fire and evacuation simulations. This approximation may cause epistemic uncertainties, and the inherent uncertainties of evacuation simulations may lead to aleatory uncertainties. However, neither the epistemic ‘metamodel uncertainty’ nor the aleatory ‘inherent uncertainty’ have been included in the results of the metamodels for fire safety engineering. For this reason, this paper presents a metamodel that includes metamodel uncertainty and inherent uncertainty in the results of a risk analysis. This metamodel is based on moving least squares; the metamodel uncertainty is derived from the prediction interval. The inherent uncertainty is modelled with an original approach, directly using all replications of evacuation scenarios without the assumption of a specific probability distribution. This generic metamodel was applied on a case study risk analysis of a road tunnel and showed high accuracy. It was found that metamodel uncertainty and inherent uncertainty have clear effects on the results of the risk analysis, which makes their consideration important.
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| 2. |
- Harms-Ringdahl, Lars
(författare)
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Analysis of Results from Event Investigations in Industrial and Patient Safety Contexts
- 2021
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Ingår i: Safety. - : MDPI AG. - 2313-576X. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accident investigations are probably the most common approach to evaluate the safety of systems. The aim of this study is to analyse event investigations and especially their recommendations for safety reforms. Investigation reports were studied with a methodology based on the characterisation of organisational levels and types of recommendations. Three sets of event investigations from industrial companies and hospitals were analysed. Two sets employed an in-depth approach, while the third was based on the root-cause concept. The in-depth approach functioned in a similar way for both industrial organisations and hospitals. The number of suggested reforms varied between 56 and 143 and was clearly greater for the industry. Two sets were from health care, but with different methodologies. The number of suggestions was eight times higher with the in-depth approach, which also addressed higher levels in the organisational hierarchy and more often safety management issues. The root-cause investigations had a clear emphasis on reforms at the local level and improvement of production. The results indicate a clear need for improvements of event investigations in the health care sector, for which some suggestions are presented.
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| 3. |
- Hatamzad, Mahshid, et al.
(författare)
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Addressing Uncertainty by Designing an Intelligent Fuzzy System to Help Decision Support Systems for Winter Road Maintenance
- 2022
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Ingår i: Safety. - : MDPI. - 2313-576X. ; 8:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the main challenges in developing efficient and effective winter road maintenance is to design an accurate prediction model for the road surface friction coefficient. A reliable and accurate prediction model of road surface friction coefficient can help decision support systems to significantly increase traffic safety, while saving time and cost. High dynamicity in weather and road surface conditions can lead to the presence of uncertainties in historical data extracted by sensors. To overcome this issue, this study uses an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system that can appropriately address uncertainty using fuzzy logic neural networks. To investigate the ability of the proposed model to predict the road surface friction coefficient, real data were measured at equal time intervals using optical sensors and road-mounted sensors. Then, the most critical features were selected based on the Pearson correlation coefficient, and the dataset was split into two independent training and test datasets. Next, the input variables were fuzzified by generating a fuzzy inference system using the fuzzy c-means clustering method. After training the model, a testing set was used to validate the trained model. The model was evaluated by means of graphical and numerical metrics. The results show that the constructed adaptive neuro-fuzzy model has an excellent ability to learn and accurately predict the road surface friction coefficient.
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| 4. |
- Illankoon, Prasanna, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Lockout and Tagout in a Manufacturing Setting from a Situation Awareness Perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Safety. - Basel : MDPI. - 2313-576X. ; 5:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Applying lockouts during maintenance is intended to avoid accidental energy release, whereas tagging them out keeps employees aware of what is going on with the machine. In spite of regulations, serious accidents continue to occur due to lapses during lockout and tagout (LOTO) applications. Few studies have examined LOTO effectiveness from a user perspective. This article studies LOTO processes at a manufacturing organization from a situation awareness (SA) perspective. Technicians and machine operators were interviewed, a focus group discussion was conducted, and operators were observed. Qualitative content analysis revealed perceptual, comprehension and projection challenges associated with different phases of LOTO applications. The findings can help lockout/tagout device manufacturers and organizations that apply LOTO to achieve maximum protection.
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| 5. |
- Jägerbrand, Annika K., et al.
(författare)
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Consequences of increases in wild boar-vehicle accidents 2003–2016 in Sweden on personal injuries and costs
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety. - : MDPI. - 2313-576X. ; 4:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study examined whether the rising trends of wild boar (Sus scrofa)-vehicle accidents in Sweden are accompanied by a higher amount of personal injuries and costs. Temporal trends in accident frequencies and the number of persons injured in wild boar-vehicle accidents were examined for 2003-2016, and the cost of wild boar-vehicle accidents was calculated. Results show increases in the number of personal injuries, and increased costs, particularly after 2010-2012. The total number of wild boar accidents correlated with the number of injured persons as well as with the number of accidents with personal injuries. Approximately one person (1.13%) is injured per 100 wild boar-vehicle accidents, and approximately one accident per 200 wild boar-vehicle accidents will result in one or more persons with injuries (0.5%). However, most of the persons injured have slighter injuries. Although the number of wild boar-vehicle accidents and the number of persons injured in the accidents have increased, the frequency of accidents resulting in personal injuries is still at low levels in comparison with, for example, frequencies of personal injuries for moose accidents. The cost for wild boar-vehicle accidents has increased between 2003 to 2016 and is currently estimated to vary between approximately EUR 9.66-12.31 million per year.
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| 6. |
- Jägerbrand, Annika K., et al.
(författare)
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Speed Responses to Speed Humps as Affected by Time of Day and Light Conditions on a Residential Road with Light-Emitting Diode (LED) Road Lighting
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety. - Basel : MDPI AG. - 2313-576X. ; 4:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The speed-reducing effect of speed humps during darkness is important to ensure a consistent speed reduction and a decreased probability of accidents during darkness. This study examined the effects of speed humps, compared with a control location, on a residential road in Sweden with light-emitting diode (LED) street lighting and a 30 km/h posted speed limit. Hypotheses tested were that: (I) vehicle speed is higher during daylight than in darkness; (II) speed at speed humps is lower than at control locations during both daylight and darkness; (III) speed at humps is higher during daylight; (IV) vehicle speed at humps is lower when luminance or visibility of the humps is greater; and, (V) the road environment of speed humps is perceived as being similar by drivers. The results showed that vehicle speed at the control location was negligibly higher (+0.3 km/h) during daylight than in darkness. Speed humps reduced driving speed by 20% when compared with the posted speed limit and the effect was not significantly different between daylight and darkness. Speed reduction for the three speed humps varied between 9% and 29% as compared with the posted speed limit. In this study, the LED road lighting that was placed directly above or in front of the hump achieved the highest luminance. This study could not reveal any significant differences in vehicle speed attributable to light conditions per se.
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| 7. |
- Asplund, Fredrik, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Engineer-Centred Design Factors and Methodological Approach for Maritime Autonomy Emergency Response Systems
- 2022
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Ingår i: Safety. - Basel, Switzerland : MDPI. - 2313-576X. ; 8:3, s. 54-54
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Commercial deployment of maritime autonomous surface ships (MASSs) is close to becoming a reality. Although MASSs are fully autonomous, the industry will still allow remote operations centre (ROC) operators to intervene if a MASS is facing an emergency the MASS cannot handle by itself. A human-centred design for the associated emergency response systems will require attention to the ROC operator workplace, but also, arguably, to the behaviour-shaping constraints on the engineers building these systems. There is thus a need for an engineer-centred design of engineering organisations, influenced by the current discourse on human factors. To contribute to the discourse, think-aloud protocol interviewing was conducted with well-informed maritime operators to elicit fundamental demands on cognition and collaboration by maritime autonomy emergency response systems. Based on the results, inferences were made regarding both design factors and methodological choices for future, early phase engineering of emergency response systems. Firstly, engineering firms have to improve their informal gathering and sharing of information through gatekeepers and/or organisational liaisons. To avoid a too cautious approach to accountability, this will have to include a closer integration of development and operations. Secondly, associated studies taking the typical approach of exposing relevant operators to new design concepts in scripted scenarios should include significant flexibility and less focus on realism.
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| 8. |
- Cuesta, A., et al.
(författare)
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Gender and Public Perception of Disasters : A Multiple Hazards Exploratory Study of EU Citizens
- 2022
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Ingår i: Safety. - : MDPI. - 2313-576X. ; 8:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: To explore gender influence on individual risk perception of multiple hazards and personal attitudes towards disaster preparedness across EU citizens. Method: An online survey was distributed to 2485 participants from Spain, France, Poland, Sweden and Italy. The survey was divided into two parts. The first part examined perceived likelihood (L), perceived personal impact (I) and perceived self-efficacy (E) towards disasters due to extreme weather conditions (flood, landslide and storm), fire, earthquake, hazardous materials accidents, and terrorist attacks. The overall risk rating for each specific hazard was measured through the following equation R = (L × I)/E and the resulting scores were brought into the range between 0 and 1. The second part explored people’s reactions to the Pros and Cons of preparedness to compute the overall attitudes of respondents towards preparation (expressed as a ratio between −1 and 1). Results: Although we found gender variations on concerns expressed as the likelihood of the occurrence, personal consequences and self-efficacy, the overall risks were judged significantly higher by females in all hazards (p < 0.01). We also found that, in general, most respondents (both males and females) were in favour of preparedness. More importantly, despite the gender differences in risk perception, there were no significant differences in the attitudes towards preparedness. We found weak correlations between risks perceived and attitudes towards preparedness (rho < 0.20). The intersectional analysis showed that young and adult females perceived higher risks than their gender counterparts at the same age. There were also gender differences in preparedness, i.e., females in higher age ranges are more motivated for preparedness than men in lower age ranges. We also found that risk perception for all hazards in females was significantly higher than in males at the same education level. We found no significant differences between sub-groups in the pros and cons of getting ready for disasters. However, females at a higher level of education have more positive attitudes towards preparedness. Conclusions: This study suggests that gender along with other intersecting factors (e.g., age and education) still shape differences in risk perception and attitudes towards disasters across the EU population. Overall, the presented results policy actions focus on promoting specific DRR policies and practices (bottom-up participatory and learning processes) through interventions oriented to specific target groups from a gender perspective. © 2022 by the authors.
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| 9. |
- Pradhan, Anuj K., et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Behavior-Based Driver Feedback Systems on the Speeding Violations of Commercial Long-Haul Truck Drivers
- 2024
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Ingår i: Safety. - : MDPI. - 2313-576X. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A third of large truck crashes are associated with driver-related factors, especially speeding. This study aimed to examine the impact of behavior-based safety (BBS) programs on speeding. Speeding data were examined from a trucking fleet that had incorporated a BBS program using in-vehicle data recorders (IVDR) and post hoc feedback. Speeding events were examined over 37 weeks in two stages-an initial 4-week period (Stage 1), and the final 30 weeks (Stage 2). In Stage 1, data were collected without any feedback. In Stage 2, a subset of the drivers received feedback. A cluster analysis was performed based on the speeding event rate from Stage 1. The analysis yielded two clusters per group based on risk. The higher-risk cluster contained fewer drivers and showed a greater reduction in speeding with the BBS program, compared to the lower-risk cluster. Both clusters showed significant decreases in speeding across Stage 2. The BBS program was associated with reduced speeding, with a more pronounced reduction for the higher-risk drivers, highlighting the role of BBS programs in trucking and underscoring the importance of driver sub-groups. Targeted safety approaches may be more efficient and yield higher safety benefits than a one-size fits all approach.
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