| 1. |
- van Laere, Joeri, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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A simulation-game to explore collective critical infrastructure resilience
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World. - London : CRC Press. - 9780815386827 - 9781351174664 - 9781351174657 ; , s. 1305-1312
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Resilience of interdependent infrastructures increasingly depends on collaborative responses from actors with diverse backgrounds that may not be familiar with cascade effects into areas beyond their own sector. A simulation-game can enable societal actors to obtain a deeper understanding of the interdependencies between their infrastructures and their respective crisis responses. Following a design science approach, a simulation-game has been developed that combines role-playing simulation and computer simulation. The simulation-game challenges participants to address the interaction between payment disruptions, food and fuel supply, security problems (riots, robberies) and communication challenges (preventing hoarding). A number of crucial design choices were handled while developing the simulation-game. The main design challenges were: How to validate an unthinkable escalation scenario?; How to give the simulation a sufficient level of detail on all aspects and keep the complexity graspable so it can be played instantly?; and How much time should each playing round take?
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| 2. |
- Cedrini, V, et al.
(författare)
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Improving resilience management for critical infrastructures : strategies and practices across air traffic management and healthcare
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World. - London : Taylor & Francis. - 9780815386827 - 9781351174664 ; , s. 1319-1327
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent natural and man-made disasters highlight that a more resilient approach to preparing for and dealing with such events is needed. To address this challenge, the main objective of the research and innovation H2020 project DARWIN is the development of European resilience management guidelines for Critical Infrastructures (CI). Based on a systematic literature survey with a world-wide scope and prioritization of resilience concepts, the guidelines have been developed taking into account everyday operations, contingency plans, training, etc. This paper describes insights gained from the adaptation of these guidelines in the domains of Air Traffic Management (ATM) and Healthcare (HC). A collaborative and iterative process has been defined involving relevant experts and practitioners. To ensure transnational, cross-sector applicability and uptake, a Community of Crisis and Resilience Practitioners (DARWIN DCoP) has been involved. The preliminary results indicate that a big step has been taken in moving from the resilience theory to practice
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| 3. |
- Strömberg, Niclas, 1968-
(författare)
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Reliability-based Design Optimization by using Support Vector Machines
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability. - : CRC Press. - 9781351174664 - 9780815386827 ; , s. 2169-2176
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this work we perform Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) by classifying the limit states by using soft non-linear Support Vector Machines (SVM). By adopting the kernel trick in the dual formulation, by using e.g. the Gaussian kernel,we classify non-linear states of fail or safe obtained from design of experiments. The Most Probable Point (MPP) of the SVM is established in the physical space where the distance is minimized in the metric of Hasofer-Lind. The solution to the corresponding optimality conditions is obtained by using Newton's method with an inexact Jacobian and a line-search of Armijo type. At the MPP, we perform Taylor expansions of the SVM using intermediate variables defined by the iso-probabilistic transformation. In such manner, we derive a Quadratic Programming (QP) problem which is solved in the standard normal space. This is done for several probability distributions such as e.g. lognormal, Gumbel, gamma and Weibull. The optimal solution to the QP problem is mapped back to the physical space and new Taylor expansions of the SVM are derived and a new QP problem is formulated and solved. This procedure continues in sequence until we obtain convergence of our RBDO problem. The steps presented above constitute our proposed FORM-based sequential QP approach for RBDO by using SVM. The target of reliability appearing in the FORM-based QP problem might also be adjusted using different SORM formulas such as e.g. Breitung, Hohenbichler or Tvedt, or by applying importance-based Halton or Hammersley sampling. A nice feature of the proposed SVM-based RBDO approach is that several limit state functions can be represented simultaneously by only one single SVM. Thus, the proposed SVM-based RBDO methodology might be considered to be a rational approach for the treatment of RBDO problems including system reliability. This is demonstrated by solving established RBDO benchmarks.
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| 4. |
- Degerman, Helene, et al.
(författare)
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Resilient performance in response to the 2015 refugee influx in the Øresund region
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. - 9780815386827 ; , s. 1313-1318
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- September 2015 saw a sharp increase in the influx of refugees in the Øresund region. In this study, resilience defined as flexible adaptation was taken as a baseline to guide interviews with societal infrastructure actors and NGOs engaged in managing the situation. Different actors had different organisational preconditions that influenced their ability to adapt to the new situation. Among the strongest drivers behind resilient performance were the organisation’s ways of relating to established rules, regulations, procedures and processes, the way relationships were formed between people and hierarchical layers within the organisations, and the perceived value of the human operator and the human contribution within the organisational whole. These values, in turn, determined how the organisations shaped many of the basic conditions that allowed resilient performance to develop. In the study it was found, for public actors in particular, that the criteria necessary to adapt to the situation were not met by organisational structures and processes.
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| 5. |
- Gjøsund, G., et al.
(författare)
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False alarm? : Effects of reducing unnecessary dispatches by fire and rescue services
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. - 9780815386827 ; , s. 181-188
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fire and rescue services in Norway dispatch more often to false and unnecessary alarms than to real fires and accidents. In 2016, 60% of the emergency dispatches were conducted on the basis of false or unnecessary alarms. These unnecessary dispatches are costly in terms of time and resources spent, and can in some cases lead to a weakened preparedness towards real incidents. Also, the risk for traffic accidents increases when big vehicles rush through the streets on their way to where the alarm was triggered. Hence, there are good reasons to work to reduce the number of these kind of dispatches. On the other hand, one may also argue that there can be some positive effects of a certain number of mobilizations for the fire crews. Based on interviews with relevant actors connected to fire and rescue services, as well as on statistics collected through the BRIS reporting system, we will discuss possible consequences of reducing the number of false and unnecessary alarms and potential effects of implementing measures for decreasing unnecessary dispatches.
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| 6. |
- Große, Christine, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Swedish Multi-Level Planning System for Critical Infrastructure Protection : The Regional Core
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability. - Boca Raton, FL : Taylor & Francis Group. - 9781351174664 ; , s. 1893-1901
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- With its growing dependence on electricity, modern society faces the risk of cascading failureof interconnected societal functions. To protect societal functions during an event of power shortage,Sweden has implemented a multi-level planning process called STYREL, which involves national-, regional—and local-level actors. As part of the Swedish crisis management system, the regional body operatesas a co-ordinator that organises co-operation and interaction between private and public actors. Thisstudy examines the role of the regional hub in STYREL and the collaboration and co-operation betweenplanning levels. It focuses on the co-ordinator’s perspective and presents evidence from interviews and asurvey among planners at County Administrative Boards, entrusted with the supervision and executionof STYREL within their regional area of responsibility. This paper indicates that the regional co-ordinatorlacks the awareness, knowledge and resources to fulfil its core function in the national planning for criticalinfrastructure protection.
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| 7. |
- Hassel, H., et al.
(författare)
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A framework for aggregating risk information across organisational levels—the case of Swedish municipalities
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. - London : CRC Press. - 9780815386827 ; , s. 1665-1672
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Performing risk assessments for hierarchical, multi-functional systems, such as a municipality, is an activity that requires input from a multitude of actors. In such systems risk assessments can be performed at many system levels and support different types of decisions. For issues that are constrained to a specific sub-system, such as a municipal department, decisions can be preferably taken at sub-system level. However, for other issues, such as those crossing many sub-systems and system levels decisions should preferably be taken at higher system levels, e.g. at the municipal level. At the same time, these decisions require extensive information from the sub-systems. The aim of the present paper is therefore to outline a framework for how risk information can be aggregated—with application in the context of Swedish municipalities. The research builds on previous work by the authors where a method for performing risk and vulnerability assessments in municipal departments has been developed using an action research approach. The method will soon be implemented in each municipal department in the municipality of Malmö, Sweden, and the next step is to develop the aggregation of these assessments. It is argued that this aggregation is facilitated by ensuring that key aspects of the risk assessments in the municipal departments are harmonized. At the same time, too much standardisation may also reduce the utility of the assessments for the municipal departments.
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| 8. |
- Johansson, J., et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting critical infrastructure resilience from swedish infrastructure failure data
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. - London : CRC Press. - 9780815386827 ; , s. 1287-1296
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Critical technical infrastructures constitute the backbone of society by providing essential services to vital societal functions and the community at large, hence it is of essence that these are resilient. Critical infrastructures, e.g. power systems, telecommunication systems and railway systems, are designed and operated based on different philosophies of where to put the resilience emphasis, robustness, rapidity of recovery or a combination of the two. Here empirical failure data, such as duration and consequence of disruptions, from several critical infrastructures in Sweden are explored and analysed. To facilitate comparisons, a generic resilience assessment approach is also presented and applied. The results give insight to the resilience level of different infrastructures in Sweden and a basis for an exploration of its reasons, e.g. due to difference in regulatory schemes, design or risk cultures. It is concluded that there exist significant differences of infrastructures resilience levels and the factors shaping the resilience.
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| 9. |
- Petersen, L., et al.
(författare)
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Creating comparable public tolerance and technical performance measures for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. - 9780815386827 ; , s. 1231-1240
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- No consensus currently exists on how to measure and evaluate Critical Infrastructure (CI) resilience. Attempting to use the public’s declared coping capacity as a target for CI resilience, this paper explores how to develop relevant resilience performance measurements that enable comparison to the tolerance levels of the general public. To do so, one must first establish the normal performance of the system and the applicable performance measures. Then, a survey is used to convert public perception into these measures as to enable comparison with the technical resilience performance. The CI resilience will be presented through a family of so-called resilience triangles which will illustrate the evolution of the performance, before, during and after a crisis event. A case study of the Municipal Water Network of Barreiro, Portugal, is used. The overall performance is preferably described with the categories quality, quantity and delivery. In quantifying the performance the importance of what is being assessed, to what hazard and for which end-user became evident.
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| 10. |
- Rosenqvist, H., et al.
(författare)
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ISRA : IMPROVER societal resilience analysis for critical infrastructure
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018. - 9780815386827 ; , s. 1211-1220
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Resilience of Critical Infrastructure (CI) has been a research focus for several years now, with efforts being made to develop methods for the analysis and assessment of CI resilience. However, these efforts are often carried out without consideration of enriching societal risk or resilience assessments with knowledge of the resilience of CI. Bearing in mind that the definition of CI according to the EU reflects the fact that it exists to deliver vital societal functions, the consideration of its resilience in isolation of the community it serves is only addressing part of the problem. The Horizon 2020 project IMPROVER has already developed methodologies for assessing and managing CI resilience. This paper proposes an evolution of the management framework for CI resilience which enriches societal resilience assessment with knowledge of the CI resilience. The framework and societal resilience analysis methodology are both described along with an application of the analysis method.
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