| 1. |
- Lodén, Jonas, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Towards Energy Efficient Housing – the importance of local energy planning
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of International Forum on Energy Efficiency in Housing, 23-25 November 2009, Vienna, Austria.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A strategy for local energy planning must be in place in order to transform the local energy system and must comprise all relevant sectors and decision makers, i.e. include the residential sector with its relevant stakeholders. Thus, the housing sector cannot be treated inisolation but should rather be part of an analysis which takes a municipal energy systems perspective. This paper reports from an EU IEE (Intelligent Energy Europe) supported work named PATH-TO-RES which develops a methodology to be used as support tool for local energyplanning. The work uses a number of local case studies (Göteborg (SE), Valencia (ES), Dunkerque (FR), Gdansk (PL) and Arnhem and Lochem (NL)) to develop a step-by-stepassessment which can evaluate and define Pathways to renewable and efficient energy systems.A Pathway is a cost efficient way to bridge over from the present energy system to a sustainable system. In short, the proposed methodology starts with a detailed description of the present system (energy infrastructure as well as decision makers and stakeholders) and, based on this, anumber of steps are defined with the aim to serve as check points to ensure that one or more Pathways can be formulated which describe how the local energy system can be transformed to comply with goals and targets.In order to describe the energy systems of the six case studies in a common way, a schematic model called a RES-diagram (RES=Reference Energy System) has been applied, from which the structure (i.e. components, flows and connections) and energy balance of the systems can bedetermined. In the six municipalities studied considerable variation of population, land area and scale and characteristics of the existing energy systems exist. Differences and similarities between the six systems are highlighted and the paper discusses pre-requisites and conditions for municipal energy planning, based on energy systems of the case study regions.
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| 4. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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A top-down approach to modelling national energy demand: example of residential sector space heating
- 2011
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Ingår i: Methods and Models used in in the project Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems. - 9789197858526 ; , s. 131-135
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Decomposition and econometrics are used to model future energy demand forresidential sector space heating, in the context of the development of the economy.The objective of this modelling work is to assess the roles of national trendsin personal income, energy prices, carbon taxes, and general energy efficiencyimprovements. The outputs should provide an alternative yet complementaryperspective on the development of energy demand to that obtained from modelsthat focus on bottom-up technologies, se e.g., Chapter 14.
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| 5. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Energy efficiency policies for space heating in EU countries: A panel data analysis for the period 1990–2010
- 2015
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 150, s. 211-223
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an empirical analysis of the more than 250 space heating-focused energy efficiency policies that have been in force at the EU and national levels in the period 1990–2010. This analysis looks at the EU-14 residential sector (Pre-2004 EU-15, excluding Luxembourg) using a panel data regression analysis on unit consumption of energy for space heating (kWh/m2/year). The policies are represented as a regression variable using a semi-quantitative impact estimation obtained from the MURE Policy Database. The impacts of the policies as a whole, and subdivided into financial, regulatory, and informative policies, are examined. The correlation between the actual reductions in demand and the estimated impact of regulatory policies is found to be stronger than the corresponding correlations with the respective impacts of financial policies and informative polices. Together with the well-known market barriers to energy efficiency that exist in the residential sector, these findings suggest that regulatory policy measures be given a high priority in the design of an effective pathway towards the EU-wide goals for space heating energy.
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| 6. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Energy use in European buildings - monitoring the pathway towards a sustainable built environment
- 2007
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 2007 AGS Annual Meeting - Pathways to our common future , Barcelona, Spain. - 9789197653428 ; , s. 111-112
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- To contribute towards a reduction in demand side energy use in Europe over thecoming decades, a key system that must be put in place, is a method of monitoringenergy usage trends in buildings. A basic premise for such monitoring is, that,across the continent, mandatory building thermal effi ciency standards have notlead to reductions in energy use in line with regulations. Germany, for example,has had building thermal regulations in place since the early 1970’s. Theoreticallythere should have been a 60% reduction in residential sector energy use there overthis time. The reduction has, however, been only 38%1 . A reoccurring problemis that, although applicants for building permits submit plans which include thethermal characteristics of the buildings they plan, compliance is rarely monitoredafterwards by authorities. This has implications for the energy saving initiativesthat have emanated from the EU in the last few years including the EnvironmentalPerformance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). In fact, and this certainly includesbuildings, the IPCC SRES2 states that there is an inadequate ability to capture thepotential for effi ciency improvement and the impacts of effi ciency programs.
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| 7. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Future demand for space heating in buildings: a top-down analysis
- 2011
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Ingår i: EUROPEAN ENERGY PATHWAYS. Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems, pp. 363-367. - 9789197858519 ; , s. 363-367
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- If the trends in energy demand for residential sector space heating seen inSweden from 1970 to 2005 continue, total demand is predicted to fall from52 TWh to 47 TWh by 2050. This fall will occur despite projected increasesin average dwelling size and population size. This is because the unit consumption(kWh/m2) of energy use for space heating continues to fall and itstrajectory will offset increases in demand attributable to increases in averagedwelling size and population size. These figures correspond to a reduction inunit consumption for energy for space heating from 125 kWh/m2 to between60 kWh/m2 and 74 kWh/m2. This fall can be amplified through higherenergy prices and increased energy efficiency, to reduce the total to 37 TWh(60 kWh/m2). However, the price elasticity of demand for energy for heatingin dwellings has been found to be very low (-0.16), which means that improvementsin energy efficiency brought about by direct regulatory intervention andincremental technical breakthroughs are of greater importance.
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| 8. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973
(författare)
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Modelling drivers of energy demand in the European Union building sector
- 2016
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the context of ongoing initiatives within the European Union (EU) to tackle global warming and to secure future energy supplies, the building sector is often cited as offering strong potential for energy savings. The primary aims of this thesis are to analyse the historical data related to EU building and to generate scenarios that highlight the technical and non-technical parameters that affect the energy demands (and thereby the potentials for savings) of the building sector.Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are used in the work of this thesis. In the top-down approach, econometrics are used to establish the historical contributions of the various technical and non-technical parameters related to the energy demands for heating in the residential sectors of four EU Member States. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impacts of trends in energy efficiency improvement and energy savings measures on the total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies are not fed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down modelling of energy demand are: energy prices; personal income; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; the penetration of central heating in the building stock; energy efficiency policies in place; a time trend, which is a linear approximation for other effects, such as autonomous technical progress, fuel switching, and structural changes (e.g., change in floor area demand); and the lag in energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. The analysis of this thesis shows that increasing the floor area per dwelling and increasing consumer usage of electrical appliances during the period 1970–2010 exerted upward pressure on energy demand in the European residential sector, while efficiency-related legislation and autonomous technical progress had the opposite effect. For the historical period analysed, the price elasticities of demand for energy for heating are low at around -0.3. It also emerges that during the period 1990–2010, regulations were more effective at lowering energy demand for space heating in buildings in the EU-15 than either subsidies or information campaigns. For the case of useful energy for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector, the implicit discount rate, which is an indicator of among other things the risk level that people attach to investment decisions, e.g., efficiency measures in buildings, is calculated as 10%, i.e., 6% higher that the social discount rate that is normally applied to investment decisions.Using the knowledge obtained from the historical analysis, to examine scenarios to Year 2050, it is shown that implementation of buildings energy efficiency legislation at the historic rate is necessary to avoid runaway growth in energy demand. Further reductions in the energy demands of buildings are can be achieved more readily with targeted measures than with price rises. This is due to market barriers that prevent a price signal having the desired effect, thereby creating the so-called ‘energy efficiency gap’. These market barriers are reflected in the low price elasticity and high discount rate outlined above. Thus, given the limited effect of price increases, it is proposed that legislated regulation of energy demand in buildings needs to be expanded, if EU-wide energy goals are to be met expeditiously. The results of the modelling in this thesis provide a conceptual framework for the development of fiscal and regulatory policy decisions in relation to energy prices and various categories and types of energy efficiency measures, with the overall objective of meeting in a sustainable manner the future demands for energy services in the EU building sector.
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| 9. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973
(författare)
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Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU
- 2012
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and fuel mixes are applied in three scenarios. The rates for expansion of floor area and increases in living standards are the same for all the scenarios. The model outputs predict that if energy efficiency remains at the current level, then expansion of the building floor area and other increases in living standards would increase final energy demand in the EU by almost 70 % by 2050. The other two scenarios reveal the levels of improvements in efficiency that are needed to maintain energy demand at current rates or reduce it by 20 %. The results of the modelling provide a conceptual framework for the development of fiscal and regulatory policy decisions in relation to energy prices and various categories of energy efficiency measures, with the overall objective of meeting future demand for energy services of the building sector within the EU in a sustainable manner.
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| 10. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling Energy demand to 2050 in the EU Building Stock – a bottom-up analysis
- 2012
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Ingår i: Proceedings of World Sustainable Energy Days conference, 29th - March 2nd 2012 , Wels, Austria.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lowering absolute energy demand in buildings is a key policy goal of the EU. This is to be achieved primarily through improvements in end use efficiency. This paper presents results of a modelling work which examines three different scenarios for efficiency of energy end uses for the EU 27 building stock to 2050. The model is a coarse bottom-up engineering variant. The model and scenarios applied are described and the results obtained are related to EU goals and aspirations for 2020 and 2050. Model outputs estimate that if energy efficiency was frozen at today’s level, expansion of the building stock and other increases in standards would increase final energy demand in the EU by almost 70% by 2050 whereas continuing efforts at efficiency along current rates could stabilise energy demand. A reduction consistent with the EU’s 20% efficiency improvement target for the year 2020 is also shown to be possible, but needs forceful policy for success. Results from the work also show that the EU aspiration for a reduction in CO2 emissions of 90 % from buildings by 2050 can be met via the penetration of biomass, district heating and heat pumps at the building level provided there is sufficient decarbonisation of the supply system as well.
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