| 1. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Asif, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnostic Performance and Appropriate Cut-Offs of Different Anthropometric Indicators for Detecting Children with Overweight and Obesity
- 2021
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Ingår i: BioMed Research International. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 2314-6133 .- 2314-6141.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the clinical settings, different anthropometric indicators like neck circumference (NC), waist circumference (WC), midupper arm circumference (MUAC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and arm-to-height ratio (AHtR) have been suggested for evaluating overweight and obesity in children. The comparative ability of these indicators in Pakistan is yet unknown. This study is aimed at examining the validity of different anthropometric indicators of overweight and obesity simultaneously and at determining their superlative cut-off values that would correctly detect overweight and obesity in children. For this purpose, the dataset of anthropometric measurements height, weight, WC, MUAC, and NC of 5,964 Pakistani children, aged 5-12 years collected in a cross-sectional multiethnic anthropometric survey (MEAS), was used. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the validity of different anthropometric indicators. The most sensitive and specific cut-off points, positive and negative predictive values of each indicator were also calculated. The results of the ROC curve indicated that all the studied indicators had a good performance but the indicators AHtR and WHtR had the highest value of the area under the curve (AUC) for the screening of children with overweight and obesity (AUC > 0.80). In the overall sample, AHtR, WHtR, MUAC, WC, and NC cut-off points indicative of overweight, in both boys and girls, were 0.14, 0.46, 18.41 cm, 62.86 cm, and 26.36 cm and 0.14, 0.47, 18.16 cm, 64.39 cm, and 26.54 cm, respectively; the corresponding values for obesity were 0.14, 0.47, 18.67 cm, 62.10 cm, and 26.36 cm and 0.14, 0.48, 20.19 cm, 64.39 cm, and 25.27 cm. We concluded that the sex-specific cut-off points for AHtR, WHtR, MUAC, WC, and NC can be used to diagnose overweight and obesity in Pakistani children.
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| 4. |
- Khan, Asif, et al.
(författare)
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Multivariate statistical analysis of heavy metals and physico-chemical parameters in the groundwater of Karak District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences. - : Estonian Academy Publishers. - 1736-6046 .- 1736-7530. ; 70:3, s. 297-306
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Groundwater heavy metal pollution is a major concern all around the world. For the assessment of heavy metals and physico-chemical characteristics. groundwater samples were collected from different locations of the Karak District, Pakistan. With the help of the global information system device (GIS), groundwater samples were collected and studied from 47 locations. The present study focused on the water table (WT), water source depth (WSD), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), dissolved oxygen (DO), total dissolved solids (TDS), lead (Pb(II)), silver (Ag(I)), iron (Fe(II)) and chromium (Cr(VI)) parameters. Heavy metals were analyzed by the Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS). The Pearson's matrix of correlation showed relationships between several parameters, such as the EC and the TDS which had close interactions between all the three different groundwater samples (collected by hand pump (HP), bore holes (BH) and tube wells (TW)). The strong correlation was detected in all the sources of water between the TDS and the EC, the regression coefficient (r) of which was 1. In the hierarchical clustering (by dendrograms) the HP samples show two clusters: Cluster 1 contains seven parameters and Cluster 2 has four parameters. The BH samples have two clusters: Cluster 1 contains three parameters and Cluster 2 has eight parameters. The TW dendrogram also shows two clusters: Cluster 1 contains six parameters while Cluster 2 has five parameters.
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| 5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 6. |
- Fajar, Jonny Karunia, et al.
(författare)
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Global Prevalence and Potential Influencing Factors of COVID-19 Vaccination Hesitancy : A Meta-Analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: Vaccines. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-393X. ; 10:8
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Countries worldwide have deployed mass COVID-19 vaccination drives, but there are people who are hesitant to receive the vaccine. Studies assessing the factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy are inconclusive. This study aimed to assess the global prevalence of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy and determine the potential factors associated with such hesitancy. We performed an organized search for relevant articles in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Extraction of the required information was performed for each study. A single-arm meta-analysis was performed to determine the global prevalence of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy; the potential factors related to vaccine hesitancy were analyzed using a Z-test. A total of 56 articles were included in our analysis. We found that the global prevalence of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy was 25%. Being a woman, being a 50-year-old or younger, being single, being unemployed, living in a household with five or more individuals, having an educational attainment lower than an undergraduate degree, having a non-healthcare-related job and considering COVID-19 vaccines to be unsafe were associated with a higher risk of vaccination hesitancy. In contrast, living with children at home, maintaining physical distancing norms, having ever tested for COVID-19, and having a history of influenza vaccination in the past few years were associated with a lower risk of hesitancy to COVID-19 vaccination. Our study provides valuable information on COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy, and we recommend special interventions in the sub-populations with increased risk to reduce COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.
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| 7. |
- Haris, Abdullah, et al.
(författare)
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Prolonged Repellent Activity of Plant Essential Oils against Dengue Vector, Aedes aegypti
- 2023
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Ingår i: Molecules. - : MDPI AG. - 1431-5157 .- 1420-3049. ; 28:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Repellents are effective personal protective means against outdoor biting mosquitoes. Repellent formulations composed of EOs are finding increased popularity among consumers. In this study, after an initial screening of 11 essential oils (EOs) at the concentration of 33 μg/cm2, five of the most repellent EOs, Perovskia atriplicifolia, Citrus reticulata (fruit peels), C. reticulata (leaves), Mentha longifolia, and Dysphania ambrosioides were further investigated for repellent activity against Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in time span bioassays. When tested at the concentrations of 33 μg/cm2, 165 μg/cm2 and 330 μg/cm2, the EO of P. atriplicifolia showed the longest repellent effect up to 75, 90 and 135 min, respectively, which was followed by C. reticulata (peels) for 60, 90 and 120 min, M. longifolia for 45, 60 and 90 min, and C. reticulata (leaves) for 30, 45 and 75 min. Notably, the EO of P. atriplicifolia tested at the dose of 330 μg/cm2 showed complete protection for 60 min which was similar to the commercial mosquito repellent DEET. Gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric analyses of the EOs revealed camphor (19.7%), limonene (92.7%), sabinene (24.9%), carvone (82.6%), and trans-ascaridole (38.8%) as the major constituents of P. atriplicifolia, C. reticulata (peels), C. reticulata (leaves), M. longifolia, and D. ambrosioides, respectively. The results of the present study could help develop plant-based commercial repellents to protect humans from dengue mosquitoes.
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| 8. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 9. |
- Abbas, Muhammad Ghazanfar, et al.
(författare)
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Chemical Composition, Larvicidal and Repellent Activities of Wild Plant Essential Oils against Aedes aegypti
- 2023
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Ingår i: Biology. - : MDPI AG. - 2079-7737. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bio-degradable and eco-friendly essential oils (EOs) extracted from Mentha longifolia, Salsola imbricata, Erigeron bonariensis, E. canadensis, Ailanthus altissima, and Zanthoxylum armatum were investigated for their repellent and larvicidal potential against Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The EOs of M. longifolia, S. imbricata, E. bonariensis, E. canadensis, A. altissima, and Z. armatum exhibited 99.0%, 96.8%, 40.2%, 41.7%, 29.1%, and 13.2% repellency against mosquitoes at a tested dose of 33.3 μg/cm2, respectively. In time span bioassays, the EOs of M. longifolia, S. imbricata, E. bonariensis, and E. canadensis showed more than 40% repellency for 60 min at a tested dose of 330 μg/cm2. Larvicidal bioassays revealed that larvae of Ae. aegypti were the most susceptible to M. longifolia (LC50, 39.3 mg/L), E. bonariensis (LC50, 26.0 mg/L), E. canadensis (LC50, 35.7 mg/L), and Z. armatum (LC50, 35.9 mg/L) EOs upon 48 h exposure. The most abundant constituents in the EOs of M. longifolia, S. imbricata, E. bonariensis, E. canadensis and A. altissima were piperitone oxide (45.5%), carvone (39.9%), matricaria ester (43.1%), (31.7%) and eugenol (24.4%), respectively. Our study demonstrates that EOs of M. longifolia, S. imbricata, E. bonariensis, and E. canadensis might be used to control Ae. aegypti mosquitoes without harming humans or the environment.
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| 10. |
- Abbas, Muhammad Tahir, et al.
(författare)
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An adaptive approach to vehicle trajectory prediction using multimodel Kalman filter
- 2020
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Ingår i: European transactions on telecommunications. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1124-318X .- 2161-3915.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the aim to improve road safety services in critical situations, vehicle trajectory and future location prediction are important tasks. An infinite set of possible future trajectories can exit depending on the current state of vehicle motion. In this paper, we present a multimodel-based Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which is able to predict a set of possible scenarios for vehicle future location. Five different EKF models are proposed in which the current state of a vehicle exists, particularly, a vehicle at intersection or on a curve path. EKF with Interacting Multiple Model framework is explored combinedly for mathematical model creation and probability calculation for that model to be selected for prediction. Three different parameters are considered to create a state vector matrix, which includes vehicle position, velocity, and distance of the vehicle from the intersection. Future location of a vehicle is then used by the software-defined networking controller to further enhance the safety and packet delivery services by the process of flow rule installation intelligently to that specific area only. This way of flow rule installation keeps the controller away from irrelevant areas to install rules, hence, reduces the network overhead exponentially. Proposed models are created and tested in MATLAB with real-time global positioning system logs from Jeju, South Korea.
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