| 1. |
- Sbarra, AN, et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 589:7842, s. 415-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Bhattacharjee, Natalia V, et al.
(författare)
-
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
- 2024
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.METHODS: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FINDINGS: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.INTERPRETATION: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 4. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Abdollahi, Maryam, et al.
(författare)
-
Anti-tumor effect of berberine on chronic lymphocytic leukemia cells
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Medical Oncology. - : Springer. - 1357-0560 .- 1559-131X. ; 39:12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a blood malignancy that is characterized by remarkable expression of CD69 and Ki67 in CLL cells. Elevated levels of Cleaved-Poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP1) and microRNA-155 (MiR-155) are related to poor prognosis of disease. Berberine as a natural isoquinoline alkaloid, has shown an anti-tumor potential in tumor cells. The objective of present study was to explore some aspects of molecular mechanisms of berberine effect in CLL cells. To analyze the expression of CD69 and Ki67 using flow cytometry, 16 peripheral blood samples and seven bone marrow aspirates were collected from CLL patients. Isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMCs) were treated with 25 mu M of berberine for 24 h. The level of miR-155 expression was subsequently evaluated by real-time PCR. Furthermore, western blot was used for assessment of cleaved PARP1. Our results demonstrated a significant reduction in CD69 and Ki67 expression on CD19(+) cells when the cells were treated by berberine. Interestingly, the expression level of miR-155 was reduced after berberine treatment in compare to the control group. Furthermore, western blotting revealed an increased level of cleaved PARP1 in dose-dependently manner in CLL cells. The results confirmed the anti-tumor impact of berberine on CLL cells through reducing CD69, Ki67, and miR-155 expression and increasing cleaved PARP1 may be considered as an option for future clinical studies.
|
|
| 9. |
- Abdollahi, Meisam, et al.
(författare)
-
RAP-NoC : Reliability Assessment of Photonic Network-on-Chips, A simulator
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 8th ACM international conference on nanoscale computing and communication (ACM NANOCOM 2021). - New York, NY, USA : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM).
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nowadays, optical network-on-chip is accepted as a promising alternative solution for traditional electrical interconnects due to lower transmission delay and power consumption as well as considerable high data bandwidth. However, silicon photonics struggles with some particular challenges that threaten the reliability of the data transmission process.The most important challenges can be considered as temperature fluctuation, process variation, aging, crosstalk noise, and insertion loss. Although several attempts have been made to investigate the effect of these issues on the reliability of optical network-on-chip, none of them modeled the reliability of photonic network-on-chip in a system-level approach based on basic element failure rate. In this paper, an analytical model-based simulator, called Reliability Assessment of Photonic Network-on-Chips (RAP-NoC), is proposed to evaluate the reliability of different 2D optical network-on-chip architectures and data traffic. The experimental results show that, in general, Mesh topology is more reliable than Torus considering the same size. Increasing the reliability of Microring Resonator (MR) has a more significant impact on the reliability of an optical router rather than a network.
|
|
| 10. |
- Abdollahi, Sara, et al.
(författare)
-
A dose planning study for cardiac and lung dose sparing techniques in left breast cancer radiotherapy : Can free breathing helical tomotherapy be considered as an alternative for deep inspiration breath hold?
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Technical Innovations and Patient Support in Radiation Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2405-6324. ; 25
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: To investigate the possibility to be able to offer left sided breast cancer patients, not suitable for DIBH, an organ at risk saving treatment. Materials and Methods: Twenty patients receiving radiotherapy for left breast cancer in DIBH were enrolled in the study. Planning CT scans were acquired in the same supine treatment position in FB and DIBH. 3DCRT_DIBH plans were designed and optimized using two parallel opposed tangent beams (with some additional segments) for the breast and chest wall and anterior-posterior fields for regional lymph nodes irradiation. Additionally, FB helical tomotherapy plans were optimized to minimize heart and lung dose. All forty plans were optimized with at least 95% of the total CTV covered by the 95% of prescribed dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions. Results: HT_FB plans showed significantly better dose homogeneity and conformity compared to the 3DCRT_DIBH specially for regional nodal irradiation. The heart mean dose was almost comparable in 3DCRT_DIBH and HT_FB while the volume (%) of the heart receiving 25 Gy had a statistically significant reduction from 7.90 ± 3.33 in 3DCRT_DIBH to 0.88 ± 0.66 in HT_FB. HT_FB was also more effective in left descending artery (LAD) mean dose reduction about 100% from 30.83 ± 9.2 Gy to 9.7 ± 3.1. The ipsilateral lung volume receiving 20 Gy has a further reduction of 43 % in HT_FB compared with 3DCRT_DIBH. For low dose comparison, 3DCRT_DIBH was superior for contralateral organ sparing compared to the HT_FB due to the limited angle for dose delivery. Conclusion: For patients who cannot be a candidate for DIBH for any reason, HT in free breathing may be a good alternative and provides heart and ipsilateral lung dose sparing, however with the cost of increased dose to contralateral breast and lung.
|
|
