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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Abdullah, Abu Sayeed Md., et al.
(författare)
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Effects of climate change and maternal morality : Perspective from case studies in the rural area of Bangladesh
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 16:23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explored the community perception of maternal deaths influenced by natural disaster (flood), and the practice of maternal complications during natural disaster among the rural population in Bangladesh. It also explored the challenges faced by the community for providing healthcare and referring the pregnant women experiencing complications during flood disaster. Three focus group discussions (FGDs) and eight in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted in the marginalized rural communities in the flood-prone Khaliajhuri sub-district, Netrakona district, Bangladesh. Flood is one of the major risk factors for influencing maternal death. Pregnant women seriously suffer from maternal complications, lack of antenatal checkup, and lack of doctors during flooding. During the time of delivery, it is difficult to find a skilled attendant, and referring the patient with delivery complications to the healthcare facility. Boats are the only mode of transport. The majority of maternal deaths occur on the boats during transfer from the community to the hospital. Rural people feel that the maternal deaths influenced by natural disaster are natural phenomena. Pre-preparation is needed to support pregnant women during disasters. There is unawareness of maternal health, related care, and complications during disasters among local health service providers and volunteers.
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- Abdullah, Abu Sayeed Md., et al.
(författare)
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Perceptions and practices on newborn care and managing complications at rural communities in Bangladesh : a qualitative study
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMC Pediatrics. - : Springer Nature. - 1471-2431. ; 21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Community misperception on newborn care and poor treatment of sick newborn attributes to neonatal death and illness severity. Misperceptions and malpractices regarding neonatal care and neonatal complications are the leading causes of neonatal deaths in Bangladesh. The study was conducted to explore neonatal care’s perceptions and practices and manage complications among Bangladesh’s rural communities.Methods: A qualitative study was conducted in Netrakona district of Bangladesh from April to June 2015. Three sub-districts (Upazilas) including Purbadhala, Durgapur and Atpara of Netrakona district were selected purposively. Five focus group discussions (FGDs) and twenty in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted in the rural community. Themes were identified through reading and re-reading the qualitative data and thematic analysis was performed.Results: Community people were far behind, regarding the knowledge of neonatal complications. Most of them felt that the complications occurred due to lack of care by the parents. Some believed that mothers did not follow the religious customs after delivery, which affected the newborns. Many of them followed the practice of bathing the newborns and cutting their hair immediately after birth. The community still preferred to receive traditional treatment from their community, usually from Kabiraj (traditional healer), village doctor, or traditional birth attendant. Families also refrained from seeking treatment from the health facilities during neonatal complications. Instead, they preferred to wait until the traditional healers or village doctors recommended transferring the newborn.Conclusions: Poor knowledge, beliefs and practices are the key barriers to ensure the quality of care for the newborns during complications. The communities still depend on traditional practices and the level of demand for facility care is low. Appropriate interventions focusing on these issues might improve the overall neonatal mortality in Bangladesh.
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- Biswas, Animesh, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring perceptions of common practices immediately following burn injuries in rural communities of Bangladesh
- 2018
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Ingår i: BMC Health Services Research. - : BioMed Central. - 1472-6963. ; 18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Burns can be the most devastating injuries in the world, they constitute a global public health problem and cause widespread public health concern. Every year in Bangladesh more than 365,000 people are injured by electrical, thermal and other causes of burn injuries. Among them 27,000 need hospital admission and over 5600 people die. Immediate treatment and medication has been found to be significant in the success of recovering from a burn. However, common practices used in the treatment of burn injuries in the community is not well documented in Bangladesh. This study was designed to explore the perception of local communities in Bangladesh the common practices used and health-seeking behaviors sought immediately after a burn injury has occurred.Methods: A qualitative study was conducted using Focus Group Discussions (FGD) as the data collection method. Six unions of three districts in rural Bangladesh were randomly selected and FGDs were conducted in these districts with six burn survivors and their relatives and neighbours. Data were analyzed manually, codes were identified and the grouped into themes.Results: The participants stated that burn injuries are common during the winter in Bangladesh. Inhabitants in the rural areas said that it was common practice, and correct, to apply the following to the injured area immediately after a burn: egg albumin, salty water, toothpaste, kerosene, coconut oil, cow dung or soil. Some also believed that applying water is harmful to a burn injury. Most participants did not know about any referral system for burn patients. They expressed their dissatisfaction about the lack of available health service facilities at the recommended health care centers at both the district level and above.Conclusions: In rural Bangladesh, the current first-aid practices for burn injuries are incorrect; there is a widely held belief that using water on burns is harmful.
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- Biswas, Animesh, et al.
(författare)
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Gestational diabetes : Exploring the perceptions, practices and barriers of the community and healthcare providers in rural Bangladesh: A qualitative study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity. - 1178-7007. ; 13, s. 1339-1348
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Objective: Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) is a prevalent and important disease during pregnancy and has detrimental effects on both the mother and the baby. The current study explored the perception and attitude of the community people about GDM and describes the challenges and gaps in knowledge, availability and accessibility of services for GDM screening and management at a rural community in Bangladesh. Methods: We performed a qualitative study including seven Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and eight Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) from November 2017 to January 2018 at randomly selected areas of Tangail district. A highly trained team including two anthro-pologists conducted the qualitative studies (FGDs and KIIs) under the guidance of experienced researchers. Thematic analysis was performed. Results: GDM is not a known term for pregnant women, their husbands, mothers, and mothers-in-law. Most of the participants (78.7%) did not even hear the term. Some of them (25.5%) perceived that GDM will persist for whole life and transmit from husband to wife and mother to baby. Some people (21.3%) thought that GDM entirely depends on the wish of the God. Most of the participants (68.1%) perceived that symptoms of other types of diabetes and GDM are almost the same. Some participants (19.1%) thought that GDM patients need to intake some medicines that might affect the fetus. The majority of the respondents (83%) had no idea when a pregnant woman should test her diabetes during pregnancy. If GDM diagnosed, pregnant women decided to follow the advice of the doctors. The results from KII with health managers found that they lack in-depth knowledge of GDM. There is no structured guideline or protocol at their facilities for GDM management. Conclusion: The existing barriers at the communities for adequate detection and management of GDM are identified properly. The findings of this study will be helpful for the decision-makers in taking necessary actions to control the GDM.
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| 10. |
- Biswas, Animesh, 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Maternal complications in a geographically challenging and hard to reach district of Bangladesh : a qualitative study
- 2016
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Ingår i: F1000 Research. - London, United Kingdom : Faculty of 1000 Ltd.. - 2046-1402. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Maternal complications contribute to maternal deaths in developing countries. Bangladesh still has a high prevalence of maternal mortality, which is often preventable. There are some geographically challenging and hard to reach rural districts in Bangladesh and it is difficult to get information about maternal complications in these areas. In this study, we examined the community lay knowledge of possible pregnancy complications. We also examined the common practices associated with complications and we discuss the challenges for the community.Methods: The study was conducted in Moulvibazar of north east Bangladesh, a geographically challenged, difficult to reach district. Qualitative methods were used to collect the information. Pregnant women, mothers who had recently delivered, their guardians and traditional birth attendants participated in focus group discussions. Additionally, in-depth interviews were conducted with the family members. Thematic analyses were performed.Results: The study revealed that there is a lack of knowledge of maternal complications. In the majority of cases, the mothers did not receive proper treatment for maternal complications. There are significant challenges that these rural societies need to address: problems of ignorance, traditional myths and family restrictions on seeking better treatment. Moreover, traditional birth attendants and village doctors also have an important role in assuring appropriate, effective and timely treatment.Conclusions: The rural community lacks adequate knowledge on maternal complications. Reduction of the societal barriers including barriers within the family can improve overall practices. Moreover, dissemination of adequate information to the traditional birth attendant and village doctors may improve the overall situation, which would eventually help to reduce maternal deaths.
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