| 1. |
- Akbari, Camilla, et al.
(author)
-
Long-term major adverse liver outcomes in 1,260 patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD
- 2024
-
In: JHEP Reports. - : Elsevier. - 2589-5559. ; 6:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background & AimsLong-term studies of the prognosis of NAFLD are scarce. Here, we investigated the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study with data from Swedish university hospitals. Patients (n = 1,260) with NAFLD without cirrhosis were diagnosed through biopsy or radiology, and had fibrosis estimated through vibration-controlled transient elastography, biopsy, or FIB-4 score between 1974 and 2020 and followed up through 2020. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (n = 12,529). MALO were ascertained from Swedish national registers. The rate of events was estimated by Cox regression.ResultsMALO occurred in 111 (8.8%, incidence rate = 5.9/1,000 person-years) patients with NAFLD and 197 (1.6%, incidence rate = 1.0/1,000 person-years) reference individuals during a median follow up of 13 years. The rate of MALO was higher in patients with NAFLD (hazard ratio = 6.6; 95% CI = 5.2–8.5). The risk of MALO was highly associated with the stage of fibrosis at diagnosis. In the biopsy subcohort (72% of total sample), there was no difference in risk between patients with and without non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The 20-year cumulative incidences of MALO were 2% for the reference population, 3% for patients with F0, and 35% for F3. Prognostic information from biopsy was comparable to FIB-4 (C-indices around 0.73 vs. 0.72 at 10 years).ConclusionsThis study provides updated information on the natural history of NAFLD, showing a high rate of progression to cirrhosis in F3 and a similar prognostic capacity of non-invasive tests to liver biopsy.Impact and implicationsSeveral implications for clinical care and future research may be noted based on these results. First, the risk estimates for cirrhosis development are important when communicating risk to patients and deciding on clinical monitoring and treatment. Estimates can also be used in updated health-economic evaluations, and for regulatory agencies. Second, our results again highlight the low predictive information obtained from ascertaining NASHstatus by histology and call for more objective means by which to define NASH. Such methods may include artificial intelligence-supported digital pathology. We highlight that NASH is most likely the causal factor for fibrosis progression in NAFLD, but the subjective definition makes the prognostic value of a histological NASH diagnosis of limited value. Third, the finding that prognostic information from biopsy and the very simple Fibrosis-4 score were comparable is important as it may lead to fewer biopsies and further move the field towards non-invasive means by which to define fibrosis and, importantly, use non-invasive tests as outcomes in clinical trials. However, all modalities had modest discriminatory capacity and new risk stratification systems are needed in NAFLD. Repeated measures of non-invasive scores may be a potential solution.
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Mozes, Ferenc E., et al.
(author)
-
Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2023
-
In: The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : ELSEVIER INC. - 2468-1253. ; 8:8, s. 704-713
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. Methods This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score >= 15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs >= 20 kPa; FIB-4: <1<middle dot>3 vs 1<middle dot>3 to <= 2<middle dot>67 vs >2<middle dot>67; NFS: <-1<middle dot>455 vs -1<middle dot>455 to <= 0<middle dot>676 vs >0<middle dot>676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.Findings Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44<middle dot>7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46<middle dot>1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5<middle dot>8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0<middle dot>0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0<middle dot>72 (95% CI 0<middle dot>62-0<middle dot>81) for histology, 0<middle dot>76 (0<middle dot>70-0<middle dot>83) for LSM-VCTE, 0<middle dot>74 (0<middle dot>64-0<middle dot>82) for FIB-4, and 0<middle dot>70 (0<middle dot>63-0<middle dot>80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.Interpretation Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases.
|
|
