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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Forbicini, Martina, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-actor business models in the manufacturing industry. Exploring how first-tier suppliers transition towards circularity.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on New Business Models: Sustainable Business Model Challenges: Economic Recovery and Digital Transformation. - 9791221011883 ; , s. 221-225
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adopting circular business models (CBM) represents a key lever for industry to address urgent global challenges. Prior research recognizes the need for systems thinking and collaboration, but existing CBM tools and methods often implicitly assume that the focal firm has direct access to end customers, usage data and end-of-life phases. However, upstream suppliers who lack this access often produce key components of the final product – particularly in manufacturing – and could thus be an impactful actor in driving circular solutions. We therefore aim to explore and explain how non-end-user-facing manufacturers, i.e. first-tier suppliers, drive CBM adoption through their value chain and stakeholder partners, and how existing CBM archetypes need to be extended for these novel constellations. For this purpose, we conduct an action research case study with a Swedish first-tier manufacturer who is starting to develop CBMs for its marine engine product lines which are currently sold in a linear fashion through boat manufacturers and dealers to end users. Expected results include an extended CBM canvas that accounts for CBM archetypes based on more complex value chain and stakeholder collaborations. By exploring how companies further upstream in the value chain initiate and build CBMs, we aim to advance and bridge knowledge on multi-actor CBMs and circular supply chains. We thereby hope to invite more research into how non-traditional actors can drive circular industry transitions.
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| 3. |
- Heldt, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Adopting business models for sustainability and digitalization. A process study of microlevel dynamics in an incumbent firm.
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on New Business Models: Sustainable Business Model Challenges: Economic Recovery and Digital Transformation. - 9791221011883 ; , s. 440-445
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Incumbent firms face growing pressure to transform their business towards sustainability. However, business models for sustainability (BMfS) and circularity are grounded in fundamentally different institutional logic which, for incumbents, creates tensions with existing business models, structures and routines. How organizations manage tensions from conflicting logics is explored comprehensively in research on hybrid organizations and sustainable entrepreneurship – however, focusing on ventures already founded with sustainability-oriented/hybrid missions. It is unclear if and how such logic hybridization processes unfold in incumbents and what role digitalization plays. This research aims to explore and explain microfoundations of how involved actors (struggle to) make sense of BMfS in incumbents and how this is underpinned by broader shifts towards hybrid organizational logics. This longitudinal case study takes a process view (Langley, 2007, 1999), following a large manufacturer’s Swedish division where a team works towards implementing a BMfS grounded in circularity and digitalization while facing doubt and inertia. Triangulating interviews, observations and documents, we track internal processes as they unfold in real-time to study how actors experience and rationalize the BMfS and navigate emerging tensions. Preliminary findings suggest that BMfS trigger diverging interpretations from different logics and therefore cause tensions. Overcoming these benefits from external impulses (e.g. customer or management communication that legitimizes new logic element), finding third-party common denominators (e.g. emphasize BMfS’ digitalization element) and continuous exposure. Upon completion, this research will provide a process model of how microlevel dynamics shape BMfS adoption, while opening for future research on hybridity intersecting with sustainable entrepreneurship literature.
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| 4. |
- Johnson, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Filling Competency Gaps through Collaboration for Circularity : Insights from a gap exploiter business model
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on New Business Models: Sustainable Business Model Challenges: Economic Recovery and Digital Transformation. - 9791221011883 ; , s. 376-381
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The implementation of circular initiatives requires certain capabilities and knowledge that traditional business models often lack, requiring new perspectives and external collaborations. This paper explores the competency needs and partnership dynamics of established companies collaborating for business model innovation for circularity through a case study of a gap exploiter business model, a company called GIAB, and three of its partners. Through the exploration of partner challenges and translation of such into specific needs, this paper matches GIAB’s competences to its partners’ circularity needs. Partners require key resources such as digital platforms, logistic networks, markets for reused goods, repair knowledge and skills, and collaborative values. These needs are provided through several collaboration mechanisms facilitated through information sharing that include joint planning, contractual practices, resource sharing and joint knowledge creation. GIAB’s value proposition to help partners to implement circular strategies is grounded in its configuration of competences that enables the capabilities needed to develop and facilitate circular solutions. The research provides a framework to identify and structure essential competences and associated capabilities for business model innovation for circularity. The examination of GIAB as a case study shows the value of a gap exploiter business model as a CBM itself, as well as a gap exploiter’s role in creating value by enabling other companies to implement circular initiatives.
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