| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 4. |
- Demir, Ahmet U., et al.
(författare)
-
Prevalence of sleep disorders in the Turkish adult population epidemiology of sleep study
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Sleep and Biological Rhythms. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1446-9235 .- 1479-8425. ; 13, s. 298-308
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2015 Japanese Society of Sleep Research. Sleep disorders constitute an important public health problem. Prevalence of sleep disorders in Turkish adult population was investigated in a nationwide representative sample of 5021 Turkish adults (2598 women and 2423 men, response rate: 91%) by an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Insomnia was defined by the DSM-IV criteria, habitual snoring and risk for sleep-related breathing disorders (SDB) by the Berlin questionnaire, excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) by the Epworth sleepiness scale score, and restless legs syndrome (RLS) by the complaints according to the International Restless Legs Syndrome Study Group criteria. Mean age of the participants was 40.7 ± 15.1 (range 18 to 90) years. Prevalence rates (men/women) were insomnia 15.3% (10.5%/20.2%; P < 0.001), high probability of SDB 13.7% (11.1%/20.2%; P < 0.001), EDS 5.4% (5.0%/5.7%; P: 0.09), RLS 5.2% (3.0%/7.3%; P < 0.001). Aging and female gender were associated with higher prevalence of sleep disorders except for habitual snoring. Prevalence rates of the sleep disorders among Turkish adults based on the widely used questionnaires were close to the lower end of the previous estimates reported from different parts of the world. These findings would help for the assessment of the health burden of sleep disorders and addressing the risk groups for planning and implementation of health care. Sleep and Biological Rhythms
|
|
| 6. |
- Saafan, Tamer, et al.
(författare)
-
Assessment of PULP score in predicting 30-day perforated duodenal ulcer morbidity, and comparison of its performance with Boey and ASA, a retrospective study
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Annals of Medicine and Surgery. - : Elsevier. - 2049-0801. ; 42, s. 23-28
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: /aim: Scores commonly employed to risk stratify perforated peptic ulcer patients include ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists), Boey and peptic ulcer perforation score (PULP). However, few studies assessed and compared the accuracy indices of these three scores in predicting post PPU repair 30-day morbidity. We assessed accuracy indices of PULP, and compared them to Boey and ASA in predicting post perforated duodenal (PDU) ulcer repair 30-day morbidity. Methods: Retrospective chart review of all PDU patients (perforated duodenal ulcers only) at the largest two hospitals in Qatar (N = 152). Data included demographic, clinical, laboratory, operative, and post repair 30-day morbidity. Area under the Curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were computed for each of the 3 scores. Multivariate logistic regression assessed the accuracy indices of each score. Results: All patients were males (M age 37.41 years). Post PDU repair 30-day morbidity was 10.5% (16 morbidities). Older age, higher ASA (≥3), Boey (≥1) or PULP (≥8) scores, shock on admission and preoperative comorbidities; and conversely, lower hemoglobin and albumin were all positively significantly associated with higher post PDU 30-day morbidity. PULP displayed the largest AUC (72%), and was the only score to significantly predict 30-day morbidity. The current study is the first to report the sensitivity and specificity of these three scores for post PDU repair 30-day morbidity; and first to assess accuracy indices for PULP in predicting post PDU repair 30-day morbidity. Conclusion: PULP score had the largest AUC and was the only score to significantly predict post PDU repair 30-day morbidity. © 2019 The Author(s)
|
|
