| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Alizadeh Khameneh, Mohammad Amin
(författare)
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On Optimisation and Design of Geodetic Networks
- 2015
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Optimisation of a geodetic network is performed to provide its pre-set quality requirements. Today, this procedure is almost run with the aid of developed analytical approaches, where the human intervention in the process cycle is limited to defining the criteria. The existing complication of optimisation problem was terminated by classifying it into several stages. By performing these steps, we aim to design a network with the best datum, configuration and the observation weights, which meets the precision, reliability and cost criteria.In this thesis, which is a compilation of four papers in scientific journals, we investigate the optimisation problem by developing some new methods in simulated and real applications.On the first attempt, the impact of different constraints in using a bi-objective optimisation model is investigated in a simulated network. It is particularly prevalent among surveyors to encounter inconsistencies between the controlling constraints, such as precision, reliability and cost. To overcome this issue in optimisation, one can develop bi-objective or multi-objective models, where more criteria are considered in the object function. We found out that despite restricting the bi-objective model with precision and reliability constraints in this study, there is no significant difference in results compared to the unconstrained model. Nevertheless, the constrained models have strict controls on the precision of net points and observation reliabilities.The importance of optimisation techniques in optimal design of displacement monitoring networks leads to the development of a new idea, where all the observations of two epochs are considered in the optimisation procedure. Traditionally, an observation plan is designed for a displacement network and repeated for the second epoch. In the alternative method, by using the Gauss-Helmert method, the variances of all observations are estimated instead of their weights to perform the optimisation. This method delivers two observation plans for the two epochs and provides the same displacement precision as the former approach, while it totally removes more observations from the plan.To optimise a displacement monitoring network by considering a sensitivity criterion as a main factor in defining the capacity of a network in detecting displacements, a real case study is chosen. A GPS displacement monitoring network is established in the Lilla Edet municipality in the southwest of Sweden to investigate possible landslides. We optimised the existing monitoring network by considering all quality criteria, i.e. precision, reliability and cost to enable the network for detecting 5 mm displacement at the net points. The different optimisation models are performed on the network by assuming single baseline observations in each measurement session. A decrease of 17% in the number of observed baselines is yielded by the multi-objective model. The observation plan with fewer baselines saves cost, time and effort on the project, while it provides the demanded quality requirements.The Lilla Edet monitoring network is also used to investigate the idea, where we assume more precise instruments in the second of two sequential epochs. In this study, we use a single-objective model of precision, and constrained it to reliability. The precision criterion is defined such that it provides the sensitivity of the network in detecting displacements and has a better variance-covariance matrix than at the first epoch. As the observations are GPS baselines, we assumed longer observation time in the second epoch to obtain higher precision. The results show that improving the observation precision in the second epoch yields an observation plan with less number of baselines in that epoch. In other words, separate observation plans with different configurations are designed for the monitoring network, considering better observation precision for the latter epoch.
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| 5. |
- Alizadeh Khameneh, Mohammad Amin, et al.
(författare)
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Optimisation of Lilla Edet Landslide GPS Monitoring Network
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Geodetic Science. - : Walter de Gruyter GmbH. - 2081-9919 .- 2081-9943. ; 5:1, s. 57-66
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since the year 2000, some periodic investigations have been performed in the Lilla Edet region to monitor and possibly determine the landslide of the area with the GPS measurements. The responsible consultant has conducted this project by setting up some stable stations for GPS receivers in the risky areas of Lilla Edet and measured the independent baselines amongst the stations according to their observation plan. Here, we optimise the existing surveying network and determine the optimal configuration of the observation plan based on different criteria. We aim to optimise the current network to become sensitive to detect 5 mm possible displacements in each net point. The network quality criteria of precision, reliability and cost are used as object functions to perform single-, bi- and multi-objective optimisation models. It has been shown in the results that the single-objective model of reliability, which is constrained to the precision, provides much higher precision than the defined criterion by preserving almost all of the observations. However, in this study, the multi-objective model can fulfil all the mentioned quality criteria of the network by 17% less measurements than the original observation plan, meaning 17% of saving time, cost and effort in the project.
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| 6. |
- Alizadeh Khameneh, Mohammad Amin, et al.
(författare)
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Optimization of deformation monitoring networks using finite element strain analysis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Geodesy. - : Walter de Gruyter GmbH. - 1862-9016 .- 1862-9024. ; 2:2, s. 187-197
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An optimal design of a geodetic network can fulfill the requested precision and reliability of the network, and decrease the expenses of its execution by removing unnecessary observations. The role of an optimal design is highlighted in deformation monitoring network due to the repeatability of these networks. The core design problem is how to define precision and reliability criteria. This paper proposes a solution, where the precision criterion is defined based on the precision of deformation parameters, i. e. precision of strain and differential rotations. A strain analysis can be performed to obtain some information about the possible deformation of a deformable object. In this study, we split an area into a number of three-dimensional finite elements with the help of the Delaunay triangulation and performed the strain analysis on each element. According to the obtained precision of deformation parameters in each element, the precision criterion of displacement detection at each network point is then determined. The developed criterion is implemented to optimize the observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) in Skåne monitoring network in Sweden. The network was established in 1989 and straddled the Tornquist zone, which is one of the most active faults in southern Sweden. The numerical results show that 17 out of all 21 possible GPS baseline observations are sufficient to detect minimum 3 mm displacement at each network point. © 2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston.
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| 7. |
- Alizadeh Khameneh, Mohammad Amin, et al.
(författare)
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The Effect of Instrumental Precision on Optimisation of Displacement Monitoring Networks
- 2016
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Ingår i: Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica Hungarica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1217-8977 .- 1587-1037 .- 2213-5812 .- 2213-5820. ; 51:4, s. 761-772
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to detect the geo-hazards, different deformation monitoring networks are usually established. It is of importance to design an optimal monitoring network to fulfil the requested precision and reliability of the network. Generally, the same observation plan is considered during different time intervals (epochs of observation). Here, we investigate the case that instrumental improvements in sense of precision are used in two successive epochs. As a case study, we perform the optimisation procedure on a GPS monitoring network around the Lilla Edet village in the southwest of Sweden. The network was designed for studying possible displacements caused by landslides. The numerical results show that the optimisation procedure yields an observation plan with significantly fewer baselines in the latter epoch, which leads to saving time and cost in the project. The precision improvement in the second epoch is tested in several steps for the Lilla Edet network. For instance, assuming two times better observation precision in the second epoch decreases the number of baselines from 215 in the first epoch to 143 in the second one.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Beecham, Ashley H, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of immune-related loci identifies 48 new susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 45:11, s. 1353-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using the ImmunoChip custom genotyping array, we analyzed 14,498 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 24,091 healthy controls for 161,311 autosomal variants and identified 135 potentially associated regions (P < 1.0 × 10(-4)). In a replication phase, we combined these data with previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from an independent 14,802 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 26,703 healthy controls. In these 80,094 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 48 new susceptibility variants (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)), 3 of which we found after conditioning on previously identified variants. Thus, there are now 110 established multiple sclerosis risk variants at 103 discrete loci outside of the major histocompatibility complex. With high-resolution Bayesian fine mapping, we identified five regions where one variant accounted for more than 50% of the posterior probability of association. This study enhances the catalog of multiple sclerosis risk variants and illustrates the value of fine mapping in the resolution of GWAS signals.
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| 10. |
- Eshagh, Mehdi, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of constraints on bi-objective optimisation of geodetic networks
- 2015
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Ingår i: Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica Hungarica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1217-8977 .- 1587-1037 .- 2213-5812 .- 2213-5820. ; 50:4, s. 449-459
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the problems in the single-objective optimisation models (SOOMs) for optimising geodetic networks is the contradiction of the controlling constraints, which may lead to their violation or infeasibility in the optimisation process. One way to solve this problem is to use a bi-objective optimisation model (BOOM) instead of SOOMs. In this paper, we will use the BOOM of precision and reliability and investigate the influence of the controlling constraints in a two-dimensional simulated network. Our studies show that the unconstrained BOOM is a good model, which almost fulfils our precision and reliability demands of the network. This model is also economical as more observables are removed from the plan whilst adding the controlling constraints leads to including more observables, which have no significant role
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