| 1. |
- Ahmed, Laeeq, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting target profiles with confidence as a service using docking scores
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Cheminformatics. - : Springer Nature. - 1758-2946. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Identifying and assessing ligand-target binding is a core component in early drug discovery as one or more unwanted interactions may be associated with safety issues. Contributions: We present an open-source, extendable web service for predicting target profiles with confidence using machine learning for a panel of 7 targets, where models are trained on molecular docking scores from a large virtual library. The method uses conformal prediction to produce valid measures of prediction efficiency for a particular confidence level. The service also offers the possibility to dock chemical structures to the panel of targets with QuickVina on individual compound basis. Results: The docking procedure and resulting models were validated by docking well-known inhibitors for each of the 7 targets using QuickVina. The model predictions showed comparable performance to molecular docking scores against an external validation set. The implementation as publicly available microservices on Kubernetes ensures resilience, scalability, and extensibility.
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| 2. |
- Alvarsson, Jonathan, 1981-
(författare)
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Ligand-based Methods for Data Management and Modelling
- 2015
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Drug discovery is a complicated and expensive process in the billion dollar range. One way of making the drug development process more efficient is better information handling, modelling and visualisation. The majority of todays drugs are small molecules, which interact with drug targets to cause an effect. Since the 1980s large amounts of compounds have been systematically tested by robots in so called high-throughput screening. Ligand-based drug discovery is based on modelling drug molecules. In the field known as Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationship (QSAR) molecules are described by molecular descriptors which are used for building mathematical models. Based on these models molecular properties can be predicted and using the molecular descriptors molecules can be compared for, e.g., similarity. Bioclipse is a workbench for the life sciences which provides ligand-based tools through a point and click interface. The aims of this thesis were to research, and develop new or improved ligand-based methods and open source software, and to work towards making these tools available for users through the Bioclipse workbench. To this end, a series of molecular signature studies was done and various Bioclipse plugins were developed.An introduction to the field is provided in the thesis summary which is followed by five research papers. Paper I describes the Bioclipse 2 software and the Bioclipse scripting language. In Paper II the laboratory information system Brunn for supporting work with dose-response studies on microtiter plates is described. In Paper III the creation of a molecular fingerprint based on the molecular signature descriptor is presented and the new fingerprints are evaluated for target prediction and found to perform on par with industrial standard commercial molecular fingerprints. In Paper IV the effect of different parameter choices when using the signature fingerprint together with support vector machines (SVM) using the radial basis function (RBF) kernel is explored and reasonable default values are found. In Paper V the performance of SVM based QSAR using large datasets with the molecular signature descriptor is studied, and a QSAR model based on 1.2 million substances is created and made available from the Bioclipse workbench.
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| 3. |
- Alvarsson, Jonathan, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting With Confidence : Using Conformal Prediction in Drug Discovery
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences. - : Elsevier. - 0022-3549 .- 1520-6017. ; 110:1, s. 42-49
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the challenges with predictive modeling is how to quantify the reliability of the models' predictions on new objects. In this work we give an introduction to conformal prediction, a framework that sits on top of traditional machine learning algorithms and which outputs valid confidence estimates to predictions from QSAR models in the form of prediction intervals that are specific to each predicted object. For regression, a prediction interval consists of an upper and a lower bound. For classification, a prediction interval is a set that contains none, one, or many of the potential classes. The size of the prediction interval is affected by a user-specified confidence/significance level, and by the nonconformity of the predicted object; i.e., the strangeness as defined by a nonconformity function. Conformal prediction provides a rigorous and mathematically proven framework for in silico modeling with guarantees on error rates as well as a consistent handling of the models' applicability domain intrinsically linked to the underlying machine learning model. Apart from introducing the concepts and types of conformal prediction, we also provide an example application for modeling ABC transporters using conformal prediction, as well as a discussion on general implications for drug discovery.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Fagerholm, Urban, et al.
(författare)
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In Silico Prediction of Human Clinical Pharmacokinetics with ANDROMEDA by Prosilico : Predictions for an Established Benchmarking Data Set, a Modern Small Drug Data Set, and a Comparison with Laboratory Methods
- 2023
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Ingår i: ATLA (Alternatives to Laboratory Animals). - : SAGE Publications. - 0261-1929. ; 51:1, s. 39-54
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is an ongoing aim to replace animal and in vitro laboratory models with in silico methods. Such replacement requires the successful validation and comparably good performance of the alternative methods. We have developed an in silico prediction system for human clinical pharmacokinetics, based on machine learning, conformal prediction and a new physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model, i.e. ANDROMEDA. The objectives of this study were: a) to evaluate how well ANDROMEDA predicts the human clinical pharmacokinetics of a previously proposed benchmarking data set comprising 24 physicochemically diverse drugs and 28 small drug molecules new to the market in 2021; b) to compare its predictive performance with that of laboratory methods; and c) to investigate and describe the pharmacokinetic characteristics of the modern drugs. Median and maximum prediction errors for the selected major parameters were ca 1.2 to 2.5-fold and 16-fold for both data sets, respectively. Prediction accuracy was on par with, or better than, the best laboratory-based prediction methods (superior performance for a vast majority of the comparisons), and the prediction range was considerably broader. The modern drugs have higher average molecular weight than those in the benchmarking set from 15 years earlier (ca 200 g/mol higher), and were predicted to (generally) have relatively complex pharmacokinetics, including permeability and dissolution limitations and significant renal, biliary and/or gut-wall elimination. In conclusion, the results were overall better than those obtained with laboratory methods, and thus serve to further validate the ANDROMEDA in silico system for the prediction of human clinical pharmacokinetics of modern and physicochemically diverse drugs.
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| 6. |
- Fagerholm, Urban, et al.
(författare)
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In silico prediction of volume of distribution of drugs in man using conformal prediction performs on par with animal data-based models
- 2021
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Ingår i: Xenobiotica. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0049-8254 .- 1366-5928. ; 51:12, s. 1366-1371
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) is an important pharmacokinetic endpoint. In this study we apply machine learning and conformal prediction for human Vss prediction, and make a head-to-head comparison with rat-to-man scaling, allometric scaling and the Rodgers-Lukova method on combined in silico and in vitro data, using a test set of 105 compounds with experimentally observed Vss.The mean prediction error and % with <2-fold prediction error for our method were 2.4-fold and 64%, respectively. 69% of test compounds had an observed Vss within the prediction interval at a 70% confidence level. In comparison, 2.2-, 2.9- and 3.1-fold mean errors and 69, 64 and 61% of predictions with <2-fold error was reached with rat-to-man and allometric scaling and Rodgers-Lukova method, respectively.We conclude that our method has theoretically proven validity that was empirically confirmed, and showing predictive accuracy on par with animal models and superior to an alternative widely used in silico-based method. The option for the user to select the level of confidence in predictions offers better guidance on how to optimise Vss in drug discovery applications.
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| 7. |
- Fagerholm, Urban, et al.
(författare)
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In Silico Predictions of the Gastrointestinal Uptake of Macrocycles in Man Using Conformal Prediction Methodology
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences. - : Elsevier. - 0022-3549 .- 1520-6017. ; 111:9, s. 2614-2619
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The gastrointestinal uptake of macrocyclic compounds is not fully understood. Here we applied our previously validated integrated system based on machine learning and conformal prediction to predict the passive fraction absorbed (f(a)), maximum fraction dissolved (f(diss)), substrate specificities for major efflux transporters and total fraction absorbed (f(a,tot)) for a selected set of designed macrocyclic compounds (n = 37; MW 407-889 g/mol) and macrocyclic drugs (n = 16; MW 734-1203 g/mole) in vivo in man. Major aims were to increase the understanding of oral absorption of macrocycles and further validate our methodology. We predicted designed macrocycles to have high f(a )and low to high f(diss) and f(a,tot, )and average estimates were higher than for the larger macrocyclic drugs. With few exceptions, compounds were predicted to be effluxed and well absorbed. A 2-fold median prediction error for f(a,tot )was achieved for macrocycles (validation set). Advantages with our methodology include that it enables predictions for macrocycles with low permeability, Caco-2 recovery and solubility (BCS IV), and provides prediction intervals and guides optimization of absorption. The understanding of oral absorption of macrocycles was increased and the methodology was validated for prediction of the uptake of macrocycles in man.(C) 2022 American Pharmacists Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 8. |
- Fagerholm, Urban, et al.
(författare)
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In silico predictions of the human pharmacokinetics/toxicokinetics of 65 chemicals from various classes using conformal prediction methodology
- 2022
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Ingår i: Xenobiotica. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0049-8254 .- 1366-5928. ; 52:2, s. 113-118
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pharmacokinetic/toxicokinetic (PK/TK) information for chemicals in humans is generally lacking. Here we applied machine learning, conformal prediction and a new physiologically-based PK/TK model for prediction of the human PK/TK of 65 chemicals from different classes, including carcinogens, food constituents and preservatives, vitamins, sweeteners, dyes and colours, pesticides, alternative medicines, flame retardants, psychoactive drugs, dioxins, poisons, UV-absorbents, surfactants, solvents and cosmetics. About 80% of the main human PK/TK (fraction absorbed, oral bioavailability, half-life, unbound fraction in plasma, clearance, volume of distribution, fraction excreted) for the selected chemicals was missing in the literature. This information was now added (from in silico predictions). Median and mean prediction errors for these parameters were 1.3- to 2.7-fold and 1.4- to 4.8-fold, respectively. In total, 59 and 86% of predictions had errors <2- and <5-fold, respectively. Predicted and observed PK/TK for the chemicals was generally within the range for pharmaceutical drugs. The results validated the new integrated system for prediction of the human PK/TK for different chemicals and added important missing information. No general difference in PK/TK-characteristics was found between the selected chemicals and pharmaceutical drugs.
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| 9. |
- Kensert, Alexander, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating parameters for ligand-based modeling with random forest on sparse data sets
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Cheminformatics. - : BMC. - 1758-2946. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ligand-based predictive modeling is widely used to generate predictive models aiding decision making in e.g. drug discovery projects. With growing data sets and requirements on low modeling time comes the necessity to analyze data sets efficiently to support rapid and robust modeling. In this study we analyzed four data sets and studied the efficiency of machine learning methods on sparse data structures, utilizing Morgan fingerprints of different radii and hash sizes, and compared with molecular signatures descriptor of different height. We specifically evaluated the effect these parameters had on modeling time, predictive performance, and memory requirements using two implementations of random forest; Scikit-learn as well as FEST. We also compared with a support vector machine implementation. Our results showed that unhashed fingerprints yield significantly better accuracy than hashed fingerprints (p <= 0.05), with no pronounced deterioration in modeling time and memory usage. Furthermore, the fast execution and low memory usage of the FEST algorithm suggest that it is a good alternative for large, high dimensional sparse data. Both support vector machines and random forest performed equally well but results indicate that the support vector machine was better at using the extra information from larger values of the Morgan fingerprint's radius.
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| 10. |
- Lampa, Samuel, et al.
(författare)
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Predicting off-target binding profiles with confidence using Conformal Prediction
- 2018
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Pharmacology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1663-9812. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ligand-based models can be used in drug discovery to obtain an early indication of potential off-target interactions that could be linked to adverse effects. Another application is to combine such models into a panel, allowing to compare and search for compounds with similar profiles. Most contemporary methods and implementations however lack valid measures of confidence in their predictions, and only providing point predictions. We here describe the use of conformal prediction for predicting off-target interactions with models trained on data from 31 targets in the ExCAPE dataset, selected for their utility in broad early hazard assessment. Chemicals were represented by the signature molecular descriptor and support vector machines were used as the underlying machine learning method. By using conformal prediction, the results from predictions come in the form of confidence p-values for each class. The full pre-processing and model training process is openly available as scientific workflows on GitHub, rendering it fully reproducible. We illustrate the usefulness of the methodology on a set of compounds extracted from DrugBank. The resulting models are published online and are available via a graphical web interface and an OpenAPI interface for programmatic access.
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