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- Amatayakul, Wathanyu, 1975
(författare)
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Approaches to scale-up CO2 emissions reduction in the energy supply sector in developing countries
- 2009
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis, which consists of five papers, addresses two themes related to the need for a scale-up of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in the energy sector in developing countries: (1) approaches to support developing countries in scaling-up emissions reduction, and (2) an approach to scale-up emissions reduction --cultivation of fuel wood to replace fossil fuels in electricity generation.In the first paper, the potential volume of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction and reduction credits in the electricity sector under a sectoral crediting mechanism based on a sectoral no-lose, non-binding, target in the post-2012 period is assessed for seven high-emitting developing countries by means of different scenarios. To do this assessment, an approach for setting national emissions intensity baselines and targets in the sector is developed. The assessment shows that a significant scale-up of emissions reduction could be achieved in the sector by boosting the efficiency of coal power plants and decreasing the share of coal-based electricity in new generation capacity in the seven countries. Given the set crediting targets, substantial volumes of annual credits could be generated.In the second paper, a hypothesis that carbon credits sale is not a decisive factor for the development of biomass power projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is tested by an empirical analysis using two objective indicators and by an econometric analysis. A decisive factor is also identified using the econometric analysis. The empirical analysis shows that there are indications that carbon credits sale is not a decisive factor for the development of a substantial share of registered CDM bagasse power projects in Brazil and India. The result from the econometric analysis supports the hypothesis. More important than crediting the emissions reduction is allowing access to the national electricity grid to sell electricity. This suggests that supporting developing countries in implementing policies and regulations which enable biomass power developers to sell electricity to the grid at an attractive price could greatly accelerate the development of biomass power projects.The third paper addresses a need for an approach to credit the national biofuel programs in developing countries for their benefit of reducing CO2 emissions rather than crediting just CDM biofuel projects. In this paper, the impact of achieving the target of the national ethanol program in Thailand of replacing all conventional gasoline with gasoline containing ethanol at 10% by volume (gasohol) by 2012 is assessed. The assessment shows that the program could lead to a significant increase in self-sufficiency of gasoline and a significant CO2 emissions reduction. The program could also entail a land-use change (i.e., displacement of areas of food crops). The annual average cost of substituting gasohol for gasoline per ton of CO2 emission reduction is estimated to be higher than the current carbon price.The fourth and fifth papers show that challenges for cultivation of fuel wood for electricity generation in Thailand involve land-use constraints and costs, respectively. In the fourth paper, the characteristics of farmers who commercially plant eucalyptus and the types of land where eucalyptus is planted are analyzed, based on a field survey carried out in Thailand. The factors that determine the farmers’ decision on whether to plant eucalyptus and the size of area to plant with it are identified, based on the survey using an econometric analysis. The analysis shows that farmers with a small farm do not and are not likely to plant eucalyptus wood. In addition, most eucalyptus growers plant eucalyptus on land used for food crops (mainly cassava area). In the fifth paper, the productivity of eucalyptus wood and the levelized cost of eucalyptus wood delivered to the factory gate in Thailand are estimated to be within the middle range of estimates in other developing countries. The cost of CO2 abatement by substituting eucalyptus wood for coal and gas in electricity generation in Thailand is estimated to be much higher than the current carbon price.
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| 2. |
- Amatayakul, Wathanyu, 1975
(författare)
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At the crossroads of bioenergy and agriculture in developing countries : Challenges and prospects for fossil fuels replacement and CO2 abatement in the case of Thailand
- 2007
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Studies estimate that the potential contribution of biomass to the global primary energy supply from cultivation of crops for energy is substantial in the long term, from about 50 to 240 EJ/year in 2050. Most of this biomass is projected to come from cultivation in developing countries. Yet, most studies estimate the theoretical potential from a top-down perspective and there is a lack of detailed analyses and understanding of the present development of various bioenergy plantations in developing countries. Major challenges in implementing bioenergy plantations involve other competitive sources of energy, competitive uses of biomass and land, and impact on food crops production and environmental impacts of production. A better understanding of these challenges would help realize the “practical” potential of biomass from plantations for energy as well as help in designing policies to assure that the plantations will lead to global and national benefits without compromising local livelihood and environment. This licentiate thesis investigates these challenges and the prospects for substituting biomass from plantations for fossil fuels and CO2 abatement at the local and country level in the case of Thailand.In the first paper, we analyze 1) the levelized cost of production of eucalyptus wood, 2) to what extent the economics of the production improve if the biospheric carbon stock changes are credited, and 3) the abatement cost of substituting eucalyptus wood for fossil fuels for electricity generation. The levelized cost of wood is estimated at 1.2-1.7 USD/GJ. We find that, given a carbon permit price of 10 USD/ton-C, carbon crediting could reduce the establishment cost of the plantation by 100 USD/hectare (20-50%) or reduce the levelized cost of wood by 0.2 USD/GJ (10-20%). The cost of substituting a wood-fired plant for a coal-fired and a gas-fired power plant is estimated at 107 and 196 USD/ton-C. The prospects of eucalyptus plantations for electricity generation and CO2 abatement also depends on several factors that affect farmers’ decisions to plant eucalyptus.In the second paper, we seek to answer the following questions: 1) what are the characteristics of farmers who commercially plant woody energy crops? 2) what determines their planting decisions? and 3) on which types of land are the crops planted? We survey the characteristics of the commercial growers and non-growers of eucalyptus trees by interviews and apply econometric models to analyze the determining factors of, first, the farmers’ decision to plant eucalyptus and, second, how large an area to plant with eucalyptus. We find that eucalyptus growers have on average three times larger farm size and a higher annual family income. The most important factor that increases the likelihood of planting eucalyptus is having a large farm. We show that who cultivates a given parcel of land—several small-scale subsistence farmers or a single wealthier farmer—significantly determines the amount of land used for wood cultivation. In addition, eucalyptus and cassava price is the most important factor determining the fraction of the total land used for eucalyptus. Land quality does not significantly affect the planting decisions, and eucalyptus is planted both on lands unsuitable and suitable for food crops (mainly cassava).In the third paper, we analyze the trade-offs in achieving the government’s national ethanol program target of replacing all conventional gasoline with E10 gasohol (gasoline containing ethanol at 10% by volume), by 2012. Achieving the target leads to the following impacts over the period 2005-2012: 1) a displacement of the areas of maize and rice up to 0.2 million hectare; 2) a net trade change ranging from negative 110 MUSD to positive 190 MUSD per year; 3) an increase in the self-sufficiency rate of gasoline from 10 to 20% and a decrease in the self-sufficiency rate of molasses from 165 to 100%, and of cassava and maize from 420 to 330% and from 120 to 95% at the lowest, respectively; and 4) a total GHG emissions reduction of 4.0 million tons CO2 equivalent (CO2e). The annual average cost of substituting gasohol for gasoline is estimated at 25-195 USD/ton-CO2e and is high compared with the price of project-based certified emissions reductions traded during 2006 but low compared with estimates of the cost of substituting biofuels for fossil fuels in Europe. The cost of tax revenues foregone in implementing the program is estimated at 2-4 times higher than the gasoline substitution cost. Compared to proposed projects on biofuels for blending with fossil fuels under the clean development mechanism (CDM), the ethanol program could avoid the issue of additionality and double counting and also has some other advantages.
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| 4. |
- Amatayakul, Wathanyu, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Determining factor for the development of CDM biomass power projects
- 2012
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Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-4669 .- 0973-0826. ; 16:2, s. 197-203
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, a hypothesis that government's guarantee of power purchase rather than guarantee of carbon credit purchase determines the development of CDM biomass power projects in developing countries is tested by an empirical analysis using objective indicators and by an econometric analysis. The empirical analysis shows that there are indications that guarantee of power purchase rather than guarantee of access to sell carbon credits or guarantee of carbon credit purchase determines the development of a large percentage of registered CDM bagasse power projects in Brazil, India and Thailand. The result from the econometric analysis supports the hypothesis. The result also suggests that power purchase guarantee significantly determines whether or not there is development of a CDM biomass power project based on agricultural residues in a country. This suggests that implementing policies and regulations that guarantee an access for biomass power developers to sell electricity to the grid at an attractive price could lead to the development of biomass power projects in a larger number of developing countries.
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| 7. |
- Amatayakul, Wathanyu, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Fuel ethanol program in Thailand: energy, agricultural, and environmental trade-offs and prospects for CO2 abatement
- 2007
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Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - 2352-4669 .- 0973-0826. ; 11:3, s. 51-66
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thailand has established an ethanol program with a target of replacing all conventional gasoline with E10 gasohol (gasoline containing 10% by volume of ethanol) by 2012. This paper assesses the impacts of achieving the target on (1) land-use change, (2) trade balance, (3) gasoline and associated food crop self-sufficiency, and (4) GHG emissions. In addition, the abatement cost of replacing gasoline with gasohol (additional cost of supplying gasohol) and the tax revenue forgone in implementing the program are estimated. Finally, in order to obtain insights in relation to the prospects of the national program vs. project-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for CO2 abatement, the ethanol program is compared with specific biofuel projects. We find that achieving the ethanol program target can lead to a significant improvement in the gasoline self-sufficiency rate (from 10 to 20%) and significantly reduce GHG emissions (corresponding to 2% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2004) over the period of 2005-2012. The ethanol program can induce a significant (up to 200,000 ha in magnitude) transition from food crop production (mainly corn and rice) to cassava production for ethanol leading to a reduction in the self-sufficiency rates of associated food crops. But the crop self-sufficiency rates would still be above 100% and Thailand's agricultural sector should be able to accommodate the present program target. Whether and to what extent the program leads to an improvement in the trade balance depends substantially on fuel and agricultural prices, sources of cassava supply, and responses of refineries to decreased gasoline demand. The annual average gasoline substitution cost is estimated at 25-195 US$/tCO2e, which is high compared with the price of project-based certified emission reductions traded during 2006 but low compared with estimates of the cost of substituting biofuels for fossil fuels in Europe. The tax revenue forgone is estimated at 2-4 times the gasoline substitution cost. Thailand's ethanol program illustrates that under dynamic government support, it may not be possible to identify the additionality of CDM projects for biofuel production and blending with fossil fuels. Implementing national programs as the basis for carbon credits could avoid the issues of double-counting and also have other advantages. © 2007 International Energy Initiative, Inc.
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| 8. |
- Amatayakul, Wathanyu, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Life cycle assessment of a catalytic converter for passenger cars
- 2001
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. ; 9:5, s. 395-403
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A life cycle assessment of a typical ceramic three-way catalytic converter manufactured for a Swedish passenger car is performed. The environmental impacts occurring in the life cycle of a catalytic converter, encompassing the extraction of raw materials, production of a catalytic converter, use phase, etc. are assessed. They are compared with the environmental benefits assessed throughout an average service lifetime of a catalytic converter. Inventory data show that several significant environmental impacts occur in the life cycle and are related to mining and production of the Platinum Group Elements (PGEs) used as the catalytic elements as well as to the use phase. At the current recycling rate, two of the three weighting methods used in this study indicate that the environmental impacts such as resource depletion and waste generation are not less important than the air emissions reduced at the car exhaust pipe. As its name implies, a catalytic converter is a converter. From a global and life cycle perspective, the catalytic converter is converting rather than reducing the environmental impacts. The results show that it is converting exhaust emissions from one place to environmental impacts in other places of the world. It is important that a life cycle perspective should be used for any end of pipe solution and the environmental impacts occurring in the life cycle should not be overlooked and should be weighed against the environmental benefits.
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