| 1. |
- Botvinik-Nezer, Rotem, et al.
(författare)
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Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582, s. 84-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed. The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.
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| 2. |
- Holmbo, S., et al.
(författare)
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Discovery and progenitor constraints on the Type Ia supernova 2013gy
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 627
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an early-phase g-band light curve and visual-wavelength spectra of the normal Type Ia supernova (SN) 2013gy. The light curve is constructed by determining the appropriate S-corrections to transform KAIT natural-system B- and V-band photometry and Carnegie Supernova Project natural-system g-band photometry to the Pan-STARRS1 g-band natural photometric system. A Markov chain Monte Carlo calculation provides a best-fit single power-law function to the first ten epochs of photometry described by an exponent of 2.16(-0.06)(+0.06) and a time of first light of MJD 56629.4(-0.1)(+0.1), which is 1.93(-0.13)(+0.12) days (i.e., <48 h) before the discovery date (2013 December 4.84 UT) and -19.10(-0.13)(+0.12) days before the time of B- band maximum (MJD 56648.5 +/- 0.1). The estimate of the time of first light is consistent with the explosion time inferred from the evolution of the Si II lambda 6355 Doppler velocity. Furthermore, discovery photometry and previous nondetection limits enable us to constrain the companion radius down to R-c <= 4 R-circle dot. In addition to our early-time constraints, we used a deep +235 day nebular-phase spectrum from Magellan/IMACS to place a stripped H-mass limit of <0.018 M-circle dot. Combined, these limits effectively rule out H-rich nondegenerate companions.
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| 3. |
- Olijnik, Aude-Anais, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic and functional insights into CDA-I prevalence and pathogenesis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Medical Genetics. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0022-2593 .- 1468-6244. ; 58:3, s. 185-195
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Congenital dyserythropoietic anaemia type I (CDA-I) is a hereditary anaemia caused by biallelic mutations in the widely expressed genes CDAN1 and C15orf41. Little is understood about either protein and it is unclear in which cellular pathways they participate. Methods Genetic analysis of a cohort of patients with CDA-I identifies novel pathogenic variants in both known causative genes. We analyse the mutation distribution and the predicted structural positioning of amino acids affected in Codanin-1, the protein encoded by CDAN1. Using western blotting, immunoprecipitation and immunofluorescence, we determine the effect of particular mutations on both proteins and interrogate protein interaction, stability and subcellular localisation. Results We identify six novel CDAN1 mutations and one novel mutation in C15orf41 and uncover evidence of further genetic heterogeneity in CDA-I. Additionally, population genetics suggests that CDA-I is more common than currently predicted. Mutations are enriched in six clusters in Codanin-1 and tend to affect buried residues. Many missense and in-frame mutations do not destabilise the entire protein. Rather C15orf41 relies on Codanin-1 for stability and both proteins, which are enriched in the nucleolus, interact to form an obligate complex in cells. Conclusion Stability and interaction data suggest that C15orf41 may be the key determinant of CDA-I and offer insight into the mechanism underlying this disease. Both proteins share a common pathway likely to be present in a wide variety of cell types; however, nucleolar enrichment may provide a clue as to the erythroid specific nature of CDA-I. The surprisingly high predicted incidence of CDA-I suggests that better ascertainment would lead to improved patient care.
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| 4. |
- Stritzinger, M. D., et al.
(författare)
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The Carnegie Supernova Project I : Photometry data release of low-redshift stripped-envelope supernovae
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 609
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The first phase of the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP-I) was a dedicated supernova follow-up program based at the Las Campanas Observatory that collected science data of young, low-redshift supernovae between 2004 and 2009. Presented in this paper is the CSP-I photometric data release of low-redshift stripped-envelope core-collapse supernovae. The data consist of optical (uBgVri) photometry of 34 objects, with a subset of 26 having near-infrared (YJH) photometry. Twenty objects have optical pre-maximum coverage with a subset of 12 beginning at least five days prior to the epoch of B-band maximum brightness. In the near-infrared, 17 objects have pre-maximum observations with a subset of 14 beginning at least five days prior to the epoch of J-band maximum brightness. Analysis of this photometric data release is presented in companion papers focusing on techniques to estimate host-galaxy extinction and the light-curve and progenitor star properties of the sample. The analysis of an accompanying visual-wavelength spectroscopy sample of similar to 150 spectra will be the subject of a future paper.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Brout, Dillon, et al.
(författare)
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The Pantheon+ analysis : cosmological constraints
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 938:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present constraints on cosmological parameters from the Pantheon+ analysis of 1701 light curves of 1550 distinct Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) ranging in redshift from z = 0.001 to 2.26. This work features an increased sample size from the addition of multiple cross-calibrated photometric systems of SNe covering an increased redshift span, and improved treatments of systematic uncertainties in comparison to the original Pantheon analysis, which together result in a factor of 2 improvement in cosmological constraining power. For a flat ΛCDM model, we find ΩM = 0.334 ± 0.018 from SNe Ia alone. For a flat w0CDM model, we measure w0 = −0.90 ± 0.14 from SNe Ia alone, H0 = 73.5 ± 1.1 km s−1 Mpc−1 when including the Cepheid host distances and covariance (SH0ES), and w0 = -0.978-+0.0310.024 when combining the SN likelihood with Planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO); both w0 values are consistent with a cosmological constant. We also present the most precise measurements to date on the evolution of dark energy in a flat w0waCDM universe, and measure wa = -0.1-+2.00.9 from Pantheon+ SNe Ia alone, H0 = 73.3 ± 1.1 km s−1 Mpc−1 when including SH0ES Cepheid distances, and wa = -0.65-+0.320.28 when combining Pantheon+ SNe Ia with CMB and BAO data. Finally, we find that systematic uncertainties in the use of SNe Ia along the distance ladder comprise less than one-third of the total uncertainty in the measurement of H0 and cannot explain the present “Hubble tension” between local measurements and early universe predictions from the cosmological model.
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| 7. |
- Klein, François, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:2, s. 661-684
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al.,). The well-known covariance between δ 18 O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ 18 O-temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ 18 O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ 18 O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east-west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup.
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| 8. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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Panta Rhei benchmark dataset : Socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:5, s. 2009-2023
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
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| 9. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 608:7921, s. 80-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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| 10. |
- Phillips, M. M., et al.
(författare)
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Carnegie Supernova Project-II : Extending the Near-infrared Hubble Diagram for Type Ia Supernovae to z ∼ 0.1
- 2019
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:995
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Carnegie Supernova Project-II (CSP-II) was an NSF-funded, four-year program to obtain optical and near-infrared observations of a Cosmology sample of similar to 100 Type. Ia supernovae located in the smooth Hubble flow (0.03 less than or similar to z less than or similar to 0.10). Light curves were also obtained of a Physics sample composed of 90 nearby Type. Ia supernovae at z <= 0.04 selected for near-infrared spectroscopic timeseries observations. The primary emphasis of the CSP-II is to use the combination of optical and near-infrared photometry to achieve a distance precision of better than 5%. In this paper, details of the supernova sample, the observational strategy, and the characteristics of the photometric data are provided. In a companion paper, the near-infrared spectroscopy component of the project is presented.
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