| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Coughlin, Michael W., et al.
(författare)
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GROWTH on S190425z : Searching Thousands of Square Degrees to Identify an Optical or Infrared Counterpart to a Binary Neutron Star Merger with the Zwicky Transient Facility and Palomar Gattini-IR
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 885:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The third observing run by LVC has brought the discovery of many compact binary coalescences. Following the detection of the first binary neutron star merger in this run (LIGO/Virgo S190425z), we performed a dedicated follow-up campaign with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and Palomar Gattini-IR telescopes. The initial skymap of this single-detector gravitational wave (GW) trigger spanned most of the sky observable from Palomar Observatory. Covering 8000 deg(2) of the initial skymap over the next two nights, corresponding to 46% integrated probability, ZTF system achieved a depth of 21 m(AB) in g- and r-bands. Palomar Gattini-IR covered 2200 square degrees in J-band to a depth of 15.5 mag, including 32% integrated probability based on the initial skymap. The revised skymap issued the following day reduced these numbers to 21% for the ZTF and 19% for Palomar Gattini-IR. We narrowed 338,646 ZTF transient ?alerts? over the first two nights of observations to 15 candidate counterparts. Two candidates, ZTF19aarykkb and ZTF19aarzaod, were particularly compelling given that their location, distance, and age were consistent with the GW event, and their early optical light curves were photometrically consistent with that of kilonovae. These two candidates were spectroscopically classified as young core-collapse supernovae. The remaining candidates were ruled out as supernovae. Palomar Gattini-IR did not identify any viable candidates with multiple detections only after merger time. We demonstrate that even with single-detector GW events localized to thousands of square degrees, systematic kilonova discovery is feasible.
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| 3. |
- Karambelkar, Viraj R., et al.
(författare)
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Volumetric Rates of Luminous Red Novae and Intermediate-luminosity Red Transients with the Zwicky Transient Facility
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 948:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Luminous red novae (LRNe) are transients characterized by low luminosities and expansion velocities, and they are associated with mergers or common-envelope ejections in stellar binaries. Intermediate-luminosity red transients (ILRTs) are an observationally similar class with unknown origins, but they are generally believed to be either electron-capture supernovae in super-asymptotic giant branch stars or outbursts in dusty luminous blue variables (LBVs). In this paper, we present a systematic sample of eight LRNe and eight ILRTs detected as part of the Census of the Local Universe (CLU) experiment on the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). The CLU experiment spectroscopically classifies ZTF transients associated with nearby (<150 Mpc) galaxies, achieving 80% completeness for m ( r ) < 20 mag. Using the ZTF-CLU sample, we derive the first systematic LRNe volumetric rate of 7.8-3.7+6.5x10-5 M ( r ) <= -11 mag. We find that, in this luminosity range, the LRN rate scales as dN/dL proportional to L-2.5 +/- 0.3 L (-1.4 +/- 0.3) for lower-luminosity LRNe (M ( V ) >= -10 mag). The steeper power law for LRNe at high luminosities is consistent with the massive merger rates predicted by binary population synthesis models. We find that the rates of the brightest LRNe (M ( r ) <= -13 mag) are consistent with a significant fraction of them being progenitors of double compact objects that merge within a Hubble time. For ILRTs, we derive a volumetric rate of 2.6-1.4+1.8x10-6 M ( r ) <= -13.5 mag, which scales as dN/dL proportional to L-2.5 +/- 0.5
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| 4. |
- Ahumada, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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In Search of Short Gamma-Ray Burst Optical Counterparts with the Zwicky Transient Facility
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 932:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) triggers on-board in response to ∼40 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) per year; however, their large localization regions have made the search for optical counterparts a challenging endeavour. We have developed and executed an extensive program with the wide field of view of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera, mounted on the Palomar 48 inch Oschin telescope (P48), to perform target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on 10 Fermi-GBM SGRBs during 2018 and 2020–2021. Bridging the large sky areas with small field-of-view optical telescopes in order to track the evolution of potential candidates, we look for the elusive SGRB afterglows and kilonovae (KNe) associated with these high-energy events. No counterpart has yet been found, even though more than 10 ground-based telescopes, part of the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) network, have taken part in these efforts. The candidate selection procedure and the follow-up strategy have shown that ZTF is an efficient instrument for searching for poorly localized SGRBs, retrieving a reasonable number of candidates to follow up and showing promising capabilities as the community approaches the multi-messenger era. Based on the median limiting magnitude of ZTF, our searches would have been able to retrieve a GW170817-like event up to ∼200 Mpc and SGRB afterglows to z = 0.16 or 0.4, depending on the assumed underlying energy model. Future ToOs will expand the horizon to z = 0.2 and 0.7, respectively.
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| 5. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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| 6. |
- Ghalwash, Mohamed, et al.
(författare)
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Islet autoantibody screening in at-risk adolescents to predict type 1 diabetes until young adulthood : a prospective cohort study
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health. - 2352-4642. ; 7:4, s. 261-268
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Screening for islet autoantibodies in children and adolescents identifies individuals who will later develop type 1 diabetes, allowing patient and family education to prevent diabetic ketoacidosis at onset and to enable consideration of preventive therapies. We aimed to assess whether islet autoantibody screening is effective for predicting type 1 diabetes in adolescents aged 10−18 years with an increased risk of developing type 1 diabetes. Methods: Data were harmonised from prospective studies from Finland (the Diabetes Prediction and Prevention study), Germany (the BABYDIAB study), and the USA (Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young and the Diabetes Evaluation in Washington study). Autoantibodies against insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase, and insulinoma-associated protein 2 were measured at each follow-up visit. Children who were lost to follow-up or diagnosed with type 1 diabetes before 10 years of age were excluded. Inverse probability censoring weighting was used to include data from remaining participants. Sensitivity and the positive predictive value of these autoantibodies, tested at one or two ages, to predict type 1 diabetes by the age of 18 years were the main outcomes. Findings: Of 20 303 children with an increased type 1 diabetes risk, 8682 were included for the analysis with inverse probability censoring weighting. 1890 were followed up to 18 years of age or developed type 1 diabetes between the ages of 10 years and 18 years, and their median follow-up was 18·3 years (IQR 14·5–20·3). 442 (23·4%) of 1890 adolescents were positive for at least one islet autoantibody, and 262 (13·9%) developed type 1 diabetes. Time from seroconversion to diabetes diagnosis increased by 0·64 years (95% CI 0·34–0·95) for each 1-year increment of diagnosis age (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0·88, 95% CI 0·50–0·97, p=0·0020). The median interval between the last prediagnostic sample and diagnosis was 0·3 years (IQR 0·1–1·3) in the 227 participants who were autoantibody positive and 6·8 years (1·6–9·9) for the 35 who were autoantibody negative. Single screening at the age of 10 years was 90% (95% CI 86–95) sensitive, with a positive predictive value of 66% (60–72) for clinical diabetes. Screening at two ages (10 years and 14 years) increased sensitivity to 93% (95% CI 89–97) but lowered the positive predictive value to 55% (49–60). Interpretation: Screening of adolescents at risk for type 1 diabetes only once at 10 years of age for islet autoantibodies was highly effective to detect type 1 diabetes by the age of 18 years, which in turn could enable prevention of diabetic ketoacidosis and participation in secondary prevention trials. Funding: JDRF International.
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| 7. |
- Karambelkar, Viraj R., et al.
(författare)
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Faintest of Them All : ZTF 21aaoryiz/SN 2021fcg-Discovery of an Extremely Low Luminosity Type Iax Supernova
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 921:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the discovery of ZTF 21aaoryiz/SN 2021fcg-an extremely low luminosity Type Tax supernova. SN 2021fcg was discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility in the star-forming galaxy IC0512 at a distance of approximate to 27 Mpc. It reached a peak absolute magnitude of M-r = -12.66 +/- 0.20 mag, making it the least luminous thermonuclear supernova discovered to date. The E(B - V) contribution from the underlying host galaxy is unconstrained. However, even if it were as large as 0.5 mag, the peak absolute magnitude would be M-r = -13.78 +/- 0.20 mag-still consistent with being the lowest-luminosity SN. Optical spectra of SN 2021fcg taken at 37 and 65 days post-maximum show strong [Ca II], Ca II, and Na I D emission and several weak [Fe II] emission lines. The [Ca II] emission in the two spectra has extremely low velocities of approximate to 1300 and 1000 km s(-1), respectively. The spectra very closely resemble those of the very low luminosity Type Tax supernovae SN 2008 ha, SN 2010ae, and SN 2019gsc taken at similar phases. The peak bolometric luminosity of SN 2021fcg is approximate to 2.5(-0.3)(+1.5) x 10(40) erg s(-1), which is a factor of 3 lower than that for SN 2008 ha. The bolometric lightcurve of SN 2021fcg is consistent with a very low ejected nickel mass (M-Ni approximate to 0.8(-0.5)(+0.4) x 10(-3) M-circle dot). The low luminosity and nickel mass of SN 2021fcg pose a challenge to the picture that low-luminosity SNe Tax originate from deflagrations of near-M-ch hybrid carbon-oxygen-neon white dwarfs. Instead, the merger of a carbon-oxygen and oxygen-neon white dwarf is a promising model to explain SN 2021fcg.
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| 8. |
- Kasliwal, Mansi M., et al.
(författare)
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Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 905:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg(2), a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10(-25) yr(-1). The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day(-1) (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day(-1)) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M-ej M, X-lan > 10(-4), or > 30 degrees to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of -16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.
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| 9. |
- Liu, Chang, et al.
(författare)
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SN 2020jgb : A Peculiar Type Ia Supernova Triggered by a Helium-shell Detonation in a Star-forming Galaxy
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 946:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The detonation of a thin (less than or similar to 0.03 M (circle dot)) helium shell (He-shell) atop a similar to 1 M (circle dot) white dwarf (WD) is a promising mechanism to explain normal Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), while thicker He-shells and less massive WDs may explain some recently observed peculiar SNe Ia. We present observations of SN 2020jgb, a peculiar SN Ia discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). Near maximum brightness, SN 2020jgb is slightly subluminous (ZTF g-band absolute magnitude -18.7 mag less than or similar to M ( g ) less than or similar to -18.2 mag depending on the amount of host-galaxy extinction) and shows an unusually red color (0.2 mag less than or similar to g (ZTF) - r (ZTF) less than or similar to 0.4 mag) due to strong line-blanketing blueward of similar to 5000 angstrom. These properties resemble those of SN 2018byg, a peculiar SN Ia consistent with an He-shell double detonation (DDet) SN. Using detailed radiative transfer models, we show that the optical spectroscopic and photometric evolution of SN 2020jgb is broadly consistent with a similar to 0.95-1.00 M (circle dot) (C/O core + He-shell) progenitor ignited by a greater than or similar to 0.1 M (circle dot) He-shell. However, one-dimensional radiative transfer models without non-local-thermodynamic-equilibrium treatment cannot accurately characterize the line-blanketing features, making the actual shell mass uncertain. We detect a prominent absorption feature at similar to 1 mu m in the near-infrared (NIR) spectrum of SN 2020jgb, which might originate from unburnt helium in the outermost ejecta. While the sample size is limited, we find similar 1 mu m features in all the peculiar He-shell DDet candidates with NIR spectra obtained to date. SN 2020jgb is also the first peculiar He-shell DDet SN discovered in a star-forming dwarf galaxy, indisputably showing that He-shell DDet SNe occur in both star-forming and passive galaxies, consistent with the normal SN Ia population.
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| 10. |
- Srinivasaragavan, Gokul P., et al.
(författare)
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A Sensitive Search for Supernova Emission Associated with the Extremely Energetic and Nearby GRB 221009A
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 949:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report observations of the optical counterpart of the long gamma-ray burst GRB 221009A. Due to the extreme rarity of being both nearby (z = 0.151) and highly energetic (E ( gamma,iso) >= 10(54) erg), GRB 221009A offers a unique opportunity to probe the connection between massive star core collapse and relativistic jet formation across a very broad range of gamma-ray properties. Adopting a phenomenological power-law model for the afterglow and host galaxy estimates from high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging, we use Bayesian model comparison techniques to determine the likelihood of an associated supernova (SN) contributing excess flux to the optical light curve. Though not conclusive, we find moderate evidence (K (Bayes) = 10(1.2)) for the presence of an additional component arising from an associated SN, SN 2022xiw, and find that it must be substantially fainter (<67% as bright at the 99% confidence interval) than SN 1998bw. Given the large and uncertain line-of-sight extinction, we attempt to constrain the SN parameters (M (Ni), M (ej), and E (KE)) under several different assumptions with respect to the host galaxy's extinction. We find properties that are broadly consistent with previous GRB-associated SNe: M (Ni) = 0.05-0.25 M (circle dot), M (ej) = 3.5-11.1 M (circle dot), and E (KE) = (1.6-5.2) x 10(52) erg. We note that these properties are weakly constrained due to the faintness of the SN with respect to the afterglow and host emission, but we do find a robust upper limit on M (Ni) of M (Ni) < 0.36 M (circle dot). Given the tremendous range in isotropic gamma-ray energy release exhibited by GRBs (seven orders of magnitude), the SN emission appears to be decoupled from the central engine in these systems.
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