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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 4. |
- Hansen, Henry H., et al.
(författare)
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Projecting fish community responses to dam removal – Data-limited modeling
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ecological Indicators. - : Elsevier. - 1470-160X .- 1872-7034. ; 154
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Modeling fish community responses to dam removal is an emerging field of study as dam removals become more common, but uncertainties concerning recovery time and community stability remain. In Europe, an EU-wide biodiversity strategy plans to restore around 25,000 km of rivers to free-flowing status, which emphasizes the importance of being able to predict fish community responses after dam removal. We developed a multi-species size spectrum model for a fish community in the Mörrum River in Sweden to identify possible outcomes after a dam was removed in 2020. Electrofishing monitoring before the dam removal was used to calibrate the model. We projected multiple scenarios into the future to explore patterns of community stability, individual species responses, and recovery time while varying parameters related to dam removal mortality, base resource rate change, and maximum recruitment change. We created 30 hypothetical scenarios using an abrupt change perspective (parameters are step-based) and 30 scenarios using a gradual change perspective (parameters are smooth). In both perspectives, dam removal mortality and a decreasing resource rate reduced community biomass and delayed recovery time compared to pre-dam removal conditions. Our results demonstrate that recovery from a dam removal scenario is not necessarily a benefit for all species. In scenarios where dam removal practices or dam failures cause high mortality events and sustained impacts on base trophic level resources, recovery of pre-removal biomass may take decades, while community stability may be unstable for twice that time-period. Our study shows that size spectrum models can be applied to dam removal scenarios to explore potential recovery outcomes, particularly from a risk avoidance perspective. A benefit of using such an approach is the relatively low data requirements needed to perform projections (e.g., present species, fish growth rates, relative fish abundance). Implementing this model in other river systems, particularly at the reach scale, can help river restoration and management assess tradeoffs associated with different habitat restoration approaches prior to committing to a dam removal plan.
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| 5. |
- Neuenfeldt, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Feeding and growth of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the eastern Baltic Sea under environmental change
- 2020
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Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1054-3139 .- 1095-9289. ; 77:2, s. 624-632
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Five decades of stomach content data allowed insight into the development of consumption, diet composition, and resulting somatic growth of Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) in the eastern Baltic Sea. We show a recent reversal in feeding level over body length. Present feeding levels of small cod indicate severe growth limitation and increased starvation-related mortality. For young cod, the low growth rate and the high mortality rate are manifested through a reduction in size-at-age. The low feeding levels are likely the result of a decrease in benthic prey abundance due to increased hypoxic areas, while decreasing abundances of pelagic species in the area of cod distribution have prevented a compensatory shift in diet. Our study emphasizes that environmental forcing and the decline in pelagic prey caused changes in consumption and growth rates of small cod. The food reduction is amplified by stunted growth leading to high densities of cod of smaller size competing for the scarce resources. The average growth rate is negative, and only individuals with feeding levels well above average will survive, though growing slowly. These results suggest that the relation between consumption rate, somatic growth and predatorprey population densities is strongly environmentally mediated.
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| 6. |
- Neuheimer, Anna B., et al.
(författare)
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Adult and offspring size in the ocean : a database of size metrics and conversion factors
- 2016
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Ingår i: Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 97:4, s. 1-1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this dataset was to compile adult and offspring size estimates for marine organisms. Adult and offspring size estimates of 408 species were compiled from the literature covering >17 orders of magnitude in body mass and including Cephalopoda (ink fish), Cnidaria ("jelly" fish), Crustaceans, Ctenophora (comb jellies), Elasmobranchii (cartilaginous fish), Mammalia (mammals), Sagittoidea (arrow worms) and Teleost (i.e., Actinopterygii, bony fish). Individual size estimates were converted to standardized size estimates (carbon weight, g) to allow for among-group comparisons. This required a number of size estimates to be converted and a compilation of conversion factors obtained from the literature are also presented.
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| 7. |
- Hartvig, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Food web framework for size-structured populations.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Theoretical Biology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1095-8541 .- 0022-5193. ; 272:1, s. 113-122
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We synthesise traditional unstructured food webs, allometric body size scaling, trait-based modelling, and physiologically structured modelling to provide a novel and ecologically relevant tool for size-structured food webs. The framework allows food web models to include ontogenetic growth and life-history omnivory at the individual level by resolving the population structure of each species as a size-spectrum. Each species is characterised by the trait 'size at maturation', and all model parameters are made species independent through scaling with individual body size and size at maturation. Parameter values are determined from cross-species analysis of fish communities as life-history omnivory is widespread in aquatic systems, but may be reparameterised for other systems. An ensemble of food webs is generated and the resulting communities are analysed at four levels of organisation: community level, species level, trait level, and individual level. The model may be solved analytically by assuming that the community spectrum follows a power law. The analytical solution provides a baseline expectation of the results of complex food web simulations, and agrees well with the predictions of the full model on (1) biomass distribution as a function of individual size, (2) biomass distribution as a function of size at maturation, and (3) relation between predator-prey mass ratio of preferred and eaten food. The full model additionally predicts the diversity distribution as a function of size at maturation.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Lassen, Kristoffer, et al.
(författare)
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Nutritional support and oral intake after gastric resection in five northern European countries
- 2005
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Ingår i: Digestive Surgery. - Basel, Switzerland : S. Karger. - 0253-4886 .- 1421-9883. ; 22:5, s. 346-52; discussion 352
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: A comprehensive evidence base for perioperative care in upper gastrointestinal (GI) surgery is lacking. Little is known about the routines currently practiced in the absence of such evidence. We describe postoperative practice after gastric resections in five northern European countries. METHOD AND SETTING: Questionnaire survey in all major digestive surgical centres in Scotland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway.Results: 76% of all centres (n = 200/263) responded. Routines varied extensively both nationally and between countries. No uniformity was traced although a conservative trend was noticeable in the use of nasogastric decompression tubes and 'nil-by-mouth' regimens. Nutritional support during the first 5 days is generally offered in Denmark, but not in Scotland. Drinking at will is generally allowed in Denmark and Norway by the first postoperative day. Eating at will is uniformly restricted.Conclusion: The paucity of evidence is reflected by the marked heterogeneity in practice. Large groups of patients may be treated suboptimally. Best perioperative care for these patients must be defined and documented. Especially, the role of early oral intake at will in upper GI surgery needs to be clarified by sufficiently powered trials.
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| 10. |
- Lefmann, Kim, et al.
(författare)
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Simulation of a suite of generic long-pulse neutron instruments to optimize the time structure of the European Spallation Source
- 2013
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Ingår i: Review of Scientific Instruments. - : AIP Publishing. - 1089-7623 .- 0034-6748. ; 84:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We here describe the result of simulations of 15 generic neutron instruments for the long-pulsed European Spallation Source. All instruments have been simulated for 20 different settings of the source time structure, corresponding to pulse lengths between 1 ms and 2 ms; and repetition frequencies between 10 Hz and 25 Hz. The relative change in performance with time structure is given for each instrument, and an unweighted average is calculated. The performance of the instrument suite is proportional to (a) the peak flux and (b) the duty cycle to a power of approximately 0.3. This information is an important input to determining the best accelerator parameters. In addition, we find that in our simple guide systems, most neutrons reaching the sample originate from the central 3-5 cm of the moderator. This result can be used as an input in later optimization of the moderator design. We discuss the relevance and validity of defining a single figure-of-merit for a full facility and compare with evaluations of the individual instrument classes. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.
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