| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 3. |
- Andersen, O., et al.
(författare)
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Haemoglobin polymorphisms affect the oxygen-binding properties in Atlantic cod populations
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 276:1658, s. 833-841
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major challenge in evolutionary biology is to identify the genes underlying adaptation. The oxygen-transporting haemoglobins directly link external conditions with metabolic needs and therefore represent a unique system for studying environmental effects on molecular evolution. We have discovered two haemoglobin polymorphisms in Atlantic cod populations inhabiting varying temperature and oxygen regimes in the North Atlantic. Three-dimensional modelling of the tetrameric haemoglobin structure demonstrated that the two amino acid replacements Met55β1Val and Lys62β1Ala are located at crucial positions of the α1β1subunit interface and haem pocket, respectively. The replacements are proposed to affect the oxygen-binding properties by modifying the haemoglobin quaternary structure and electrostatic feature. Intriguingly, the same molecular mechanism for facilitating oxygen binding is found in avian species adapted to high altitudes, illustrating convergent evolution in water- and air-breathing vertebrates to reduction in environmental oxygen availability. Cod populations inhabiting the cold Arctic waters and the low-oxygen Baltic Sea seem well adapted to these conditions by possessing the high oxygen affinity Val55–Ala62 haplotype, while the temperature-insensitive Met55–Lys62 haplotype predominates in the southern populations. The distinct distributions of the functionally different haemoglobin variants indicate that the present biogeography of this ecologically and economically important species might be seriously affected by global warming.
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| 4. |
- Andersen, Oivind, et al.
(författare)
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Polymorphism, selection and tandem duplication of transferrin genes in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) - Conserved synteny between fish monolobal and tetrapod bilobal transferrin loci.
- 2011
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Ingår i: BMC genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2156. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The two homologous iron-binding lobes of transferrins are thought to have evolved by gene duplication of an ancestral monolobal form, but any conserved synteny between bilobal and monolobal transferrin loci remains unexplored. The important role played by transferrin in the resistance to invading pathogens makes this polymorphic gene a highly valuable candidate for studying adaptive divergence among local populations. RESULTS: The Atlantic cod genome was shown to harbour two tandem duplicated serum transferrin genes (Tf1, Tf2), a melanotransferrin gene (MTf), and a monolobal transferrin gene (Omp) expressed in the otoliths. Fish, chicken and mammals showed highly conserved syntenic regions in which monolobal and bilobal transferrins reside, but contrasting with tetrapods, the fish transferrin genes are positioned on three different linkage groups. Sequence alignment of cod Tf1 cDNAs from Northeast (NE) and Northwest (NW) Atlantic populations revealed 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) causing the replacement of 16 amino acids, including eight surface residues revealed by the modelled 3D-structures, which might influence the binding of pathogens for removal of iron. SNP analysis of a total of 375 individuals from 14 trans-Atlantic populations showed that the Tf1-NE variant was almost fixed in the Baltic cod and predominated in the other NE Atlantic populations, whereas the NW Atlantic populations were more heterozygous and showed high frequencies of the Tf-NW SNP alleles. CONCLUSIONS: The highly conserved synteny between fish and tetrapod transferrin loci infers that the fusion of tandem duplicated Omp-like genes gave rise to the modern transferrins. The multiple nonsynonymous substitutions in cod Tf1 with putative structural effects, together with highly divergent allele frequencies among different cod populations, strongly suggest evidence for positive selection and local adaptation in trans-Atlantic cod populations.
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| 5. |
- Andersen, Øivind, et al.
(författare)
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The conserved Phe GH5 of importance for hemoglobin intersubunit contact is mutated in gadoid fish
- 2014
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Ingår i: BMC Evolutionary Biology. - 1471-2148. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract Background Functionality of the tetrameric hemoglobin molecule seems to be determined by a few amino acids located in key positions. Oxygen binding encompasses structural changes at the interfaces between the α1β2 and α2β1 dimers, but also subunit interactions are important for the oxygen binding affinity and stability. The latter packing contacts include the conserved Arg B12 interacting with Phe GH5, which is replaced by Leu and Tyr in the α A and α D chains, respectively, of birds and reptiles. Results Searching all known hemoglobins from a variety of gnathostome species (jawed vertebrates) revealed the almost invariant Arg B12 coded by the AGG triplet positioned at an exon-intron boundary. Rare substitutions of Arg B12 in the gnathostome β globins were found in pig, tree shrew and scaled reptiles. Phe GH5 is also highly conserved in the β globins, except for the Leu replacement in the β1 globin of five marine gadoid species, gilthead seabream and the Comoran coelacanth, while Cys and Ile were found in burbot and yellow croaker, respectively. Atlantic cod β1 globin showed a Leu/Met polymorphism at position GH5 dominated by the Met variant in northwest-Atlantic populations that was rarely found in northeast-Atlantic cod. Site-specific analyses identified six consensus codons under positive selection, including 122β(GH5), indicating that the amino acid changes identified at this position may offer an adaptive advantage. In fact, computational mutation analysis showed that the replacement of Phe GH5 with Leu or Cys decreased the number of van der Waals contacts essentially in the deoxy form that probably causes a slight increase in the oxygen binding affinity. Conclusions The almost invariant Arg B12 and the AGG codon seem to be important for the packing contacts and pre-mRNA processing, respectively, but the rare mutations identified might be beneficial. The Leu122β1(GH5)Met and Met55β1(D6)Val polymorphisms in Atlantic cod hemoglobin modify the intradimer contacts B12-GH5 and H2-D6, while amino acid replacements at these positions in avian hemoglobin seem to be evolutionary adaptive in air-breathing vertebrates. The results support the theory that adaptive changes in hemoglobin functions are caused by a few substitutions at key positions.
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| 6. |
- Andersson, Leif, et al.
(författare)
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Ecological adaptation in cod and herring and possible consequences of future climate change in the Baltic Sea
- 2023
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-7745. ; 10
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Atlantic herring and Atlantic cod are two marine fish species that have successfully adapted to the brackish Baltic Sea, and the former is able to spawn in near-freshwater conditions in the inner Gulf of Bothnia. Here, we review the state of current knowledge concerning ecological adaptation in the two species and make an attempt to predict how they will be able to cope with future climate change. Previous whole genome sequencing studies in Atlantic herring have revealed hundreds of genetic loci underlying ecological adaptation, including several loci that show very strong associations to variation in salinity and temperature. These results suggest the existence of standing genetic variation available for adaptation to a changing environment. However, although Atlantic herring probably has the genetic potential to adapt, its future status also depends on how climate change will affect plankton production and competing species, such as sprat and three-spined stickleback. In cod, the situation is challenging, as there is only one true Baltic population, spawning east of Bornholm and then dispersing towards the east and north. This Baltic cod population is threatened by overfishing, low oxygen levels in benthic waters and generally bad physiological condition of individual fish, in addition to being completely isolated from gene flow from nearby cod populations at the entrance of the Baltic Sea.
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| 7. |
- André, Carl, 1958, et al.
(författare)
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Detecting population structure in a high gene-flow species, Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) : direct, simultaneous evaluation of neutral vs putatively selected loci
- 2011
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Ingår i: Heredity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-067X .- 1365-2540. ; 106:2, s. 270-280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many marine fish species, genetic population structure is typically weak because populations are large, evolutionarily young and have a high potential for gene flow. We tested whether genetic markers influenced by natural selection are more efficient than the presumed neutral genetic markers to detect population structure in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), a migratory pelagic species with large effective population sizes. We compared the spatial and temporal patterns of divergence and statistical power of three traditional genetic marker types, microsatellites, allozymes and mitochondrial DNA, with one microsatellite locus, Cpa112, previously shown to be influenced by divergent selection associated with salinity, and one locus located in the major histocompatibility complex class IIA (MHC-IIA) gene, using the same individuals across analyses. Samples were collected in 2002 and 2003 at two locations in the North Sea, one location in the Skagerrak and one location in the low-saline Baltic Sea. Levels of divergence for putatively neutral markers were generally low, with the exception of single outlier locus/sample combinations; microsatellites were the most statistically powerful markers under neutral expectations. We found no evidence of selection acting on the MHC locus. Cpa112, however, was highly divergent in the Baltic samples. Simulations addressing the statistical power for detecting population divergence showed that when using Cpa112 alone, compared with using eight presumed neutral microsatellite loci, sample sizes could be reduced by up to a tenth while still retaining high statistical power. Our results show that the loci influenced by selection can serve as powerful markers for detecting population structure in high gene-flow marine fish species.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- André, Carl, 1958, et al.
(författare)
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Population structure in Atlantic cod in the eastern North Sea - Skagerrak - Kattegat: early life stage dispersal and adult migration
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMC Research Notes. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1756-0500. ; 9:63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In marine fish species, where pelagic egg and larvae drift with ocean currents, population structure has been suggested to be maintained by larval retention due to hydrographic structuring and by homing of adult fish to natal areas. Whilst natal homing of adults has been demonstrated for anadromous and coral reef fishes, there are few documented examples of philopatric migration in temperate marine fish species. Results: Here, we demonstrate temporally stable genetic differentiation among spawning populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.), and present genetic and behavioural evidence for larval drift and philopatric migration in the eastern North Sea-Skagerrak-Kattegat area. We show that juvenile cod collected in the eastern Skagerrak and central Kattegat are genetically similar to cod from offshore spawning areas in the eastern North Sea. Genetic assignment of individual 2-5 year old fish indicates that cod residing at, or migrating towards, spawning areas in Kattegat and the North Sea display philopatric behaviours. Conclusions: Together these findings suggest a loop between spawning, larval drift and adult return-migrations to spawning areas and underlines that both oceanographic processes and migratory behaviour in the adult phase may be important for stock separation and integrity in marine temperate fishes such as Atlantic cod. © 2016 André et al.
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