| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- ODonnell, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Registered Replication Report: Dijksterhuis and van Knippenberg (1998)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Perspectives on Psychological Science. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD. - 1745-6916 .- 1745-6924. ; 13:2, s. 268-294
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dijksterhuis and van Knippenberg (1998) reported that participants primed with a category associated with intelligence (professor) subsequently performed 13% better on a trivia test than participants primed with a category associated with a lack of intelligence (soccer hooligans). In two unpublished replications of this study designed to verify the appropriate testing procedures, Dijksterhuis, van Knippenberg, and Holland observed a smaller difference between conditions (2%-3%) as well as a gender difference: Men showed the effect (9.3% and 7.6%), but women did not (0.3% and -0.3%). The procedure used in those replications served as the basis for this multilab Registered Replication Report. A total of 40 laboratories collected data for this project, and 23 of these laboratories met all inclusion criteria. Here we report the meta-analytic results for those 23 direct replications (total N = 4,493), which tested whether performance on a 30-item general-knowledge trivia task differed between these two priming conditions (results of supplementary analyses of the data from all 40 labs, N = 6,454, are also reported). We observed no overall difference in trivia performance between participants primed with the professor category and those primed with the hooligan category (0.14%) and no moderation by gender.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Eriksson, Kimmo, et al.
(författare)
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Perceptions of the appropriate response to norm violation in 57 societies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Research. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Norm enforcement may be important for resolving conflicts and promoting cooperation. However, little is known about how preferred responses to norm violations vary across cultures and across domains. In a preregistered study of 57 countries (using convenience samples of 22,863 students and non-students), we measured perceptions of the appropriateness of various responses to a violation of a cooperative norm and to atypical social behaviors. Our findings highlight both cultural universals and cultural variation. We find a universal negative relation between appropriateness ratings of norm violations and appropriateness ratings of responses in the form of confrontation, social ostracism and gossip. Moreover, we find the country variation in the appropriateness of sanctions to be consistent across different norm violations but not across different sanctions. Specifically, in those countries where use of physical confrontation and social ostracism is rated as less appropriate, gossip is rated as more appropriate. Little is known about peoples preferred responses to norm violations across countries. Here, in a study of 57 countries, the authors highlight cultural similarities and differences in peoples perception of the appropriateness of norm violations.
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| 5. |
- Ehrich, Dorothee, et al.
(författare)
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Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic : Can we detect trends?
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 49:3, s. 786-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Maitner, Angela T., et al.
(författare)
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Perceptions of Emotional Functionality : Similarities and Differences Among Dignity, Face, and Honor Cultures
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0221 .- 1552-5422. ; 53:3-4, s. 263-288
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Emotions are linked to wide sets of action tendencies, and it can be difficult to predict which specific action tendency will be motivated or indulged in response to individual experiences of emotion. Building on a functional perspective of emotion, we investigate whether anger and shame connect to different behavioral intentions in dignity, face, and honor cultures. Using simple animations that showed perpetrators taking resources from victims, we conducted two studies across eleven countries investigating the extent to which participants expected victims to feel anger and shame, how they thought victims should respond to such violations, and how expectations of emotions were affected by enacted behavior. Across cultures, anger was associated with desires to reclaim resources or alert others to the violation. In face and honor cultures, but not dignity cultures, shame was associated with the desire for aggressive retaliation. However, we found that when victims indulged motivationally-relevant behavior, expected anger and shame were reduced, and satisfaction increased, in similar ways across cultures. Results suggest similarities and differences in expectations of how emotions functionally elicit behavioral responses across cultures.
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| 8. |
- Susat, J., et al.
(författare)
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A 5,000-year-old hunter-gatherer already plagued by Yersinia pestis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cell Reports. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-1247. ; 35:13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A 5,000-year-old Yersinia pestis genome (RV 2039) is reconstructed from a hunter-fisher-gatherer (5300-5050 cal BP) buried at RirmukaIns, Latvia. RV 2039 is the first in a series of ancient strains that evolved shortly after the split of Y. pestis from its antecessor Y. pseudotuberculosis similar to 7,000 years ago. The genomic and phylogenetic characteristics of RV 2039 are consistent with the hypothesis that this very early Y. pestis form was most likely less transmissible and maybe even less virulent than later strains. Our data do not support the scenario of a prehistoric pneumonic plague pandemic, as suggested previously for the Neolithic decline. The geographical and temporal distribution of the few prehistoric Y. pestis cases reported so far is more in agreement with single zoonotic events.
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| 10. |
- Alexander, Naomi E., et al.
(författare)
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TeraSCREEN: Multi-frequency multi-mode Terahertz screening for border checks
- 2014
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Ingår i: Proc. SPIE 9078, Passive and Active Millimeter-Wave Imaging XVII. - : SPIE.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The challenge for any security screening system is to identify potentially harmful objects such as weapons and explosives concealed under clothing. Classical border and security checkpoints are no longer capable of fulfilling the demands of today’ s ever growing security requirements, especially with respect to the high throughput generally required which entails a high detection rate of threat material and a low false alarm rate. TeraSCREEN proposes to develop an innovative concept of multi-frequency multi-mode Terahertz and millimeter-wave detection with new automatic detection and classification functionalities. The system developed will demonstrate, at a live control point, the safe automatic detection and classification of objects concealed under clothing, whilst respecting privacy and increasing current throughput rates. This innovative screening system will combine multi-frequency, multi-mode images taken by passive and active subsystems which will scan the subjects and obtain complementary spatial and spectral information, thus allowing for automatic threat recognition. The TeraSCREEN project, which will run from 2013 to 2016, has received funding from the European Union’ s Seventh Framework Programme under the Security Call. This paper will describe the project objectives and approach.
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