| 1. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974
(författare)
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A multiple ownerships diffusion model of cellular service: A study of the Swedish market
- 2011
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Ingår i: 2nd ITS PhD symposium, Budapest. September 22-23.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Cellular service diffusion has been widely explained using classic diffusion modeling which uses the accumulated number of subscriptions or possession of active SIM cards -often known as the cellular phone penetration rate- as the proxy. Such approach tends to overlook the presence of cellular service multiple-subscriptions as well as the problematic inaccuracies of cellular service penetration rate as the proxy. As an alternative, the present study explains the diffusion of cellular service using multiple ownerships diffusion models with longitudinal cross-section data as the proxy. Based on curve-fit estimation of the model using data obtained from nation-wide survey during 2002-2010, this study found that diffusion of cellular service with single subscriptions have higher innovation coefficient but lower imitation coefficient than one with multiple subscriptions. This indicates that the nature of demand for additional subscriptions may be different than that for first subscriptions and therefore the trend of growth should be estimated separately. Further, the multiple-unit ownership diffusion modeling offers more advantages than classic diffusion modeling as it can indicate the percentage of cellular service non-adopters in a population which can be estimated by examining the trend of cellular service adopters with single subscriptions to the population trend. The model also has a more intuitive forecasting power as it also distinguishes the growth trend projection for each type of adopters.
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| 2. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974, et al.
(författare)
-
A socio-economic exploration of mobile phone service have-nots in Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: New Media and Society. - : SAGE Publications. - 1461-4448 .- 1461-7315. ; 16:3, s. 415-433
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most studies in the mobile communication field focus on the acceptance of the technology rather than the resistance of it, a trend that makes researchers try to understand only the powerful actors in society. Instead, this paper explores the socio-economic characteristics of mobile phone service have-nots. Based on an analysis of samples from three consecutive nationwide annual surveys in Sweden, this study finds that two socio-economic factors - age and the household income - remain significant to explain non-usage of mobile phone services. Other variables dynamically change over time without a significant effect. This finding supports the argument that most socio-economic factors are transient at different stages of the adoption of innovation. Since the benefits of mobile phones are related to social networks (the more people you know, the more beneficial), it is not surprising that, in the long run, elderly people with low income, who typically have a decreasing social network, find this technology no longer purposeful and finally refuse it. This indicates that the status of the have-nots may not reflect socio-economic inequalities in general, but rather individuals' preference when managing their social situation. This is relevant with the argument that a universal service policy should be based on connectivity, that is, people's need for communication rather than solely promoting subsidizing a particular technology or service. The policy, therefore, should consider the technological frame sharing - the interpretation of the technology shared by members of a relevant social group, that is, users, service providers and regulators, to bring a more socially constructed technology that can protect individuals with less socio-economic power from being socially excluded.
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| 3. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974
(författare)
-
An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Determining Multiple Subscriptions in the Swedish Mobile Phone Market
- 2010
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Mobile Business, 13-15 June 2010, Athens, Greece. - 9781424474233 ; , s. 25 - 32
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aims to explain the determinant factors of multiple subscriptions in the Swedish mobile phone market. A generalized Poisson model of count data from a national survey in Sweden finds that business subscriptions and household size are the main predictors of the multiple mobile phone subscriptions, along with individual demographic characteris-tics such as, age, gender and type of occupation. Other factors such as education level, area of living, prepaid as the main subscription, as well as mobile Internet and fixed phone sub-scription are not significant. These facts indicate that business subscriptions and subscriptions for family are the main factors that determine the incidence of multiple subscriptions in the Swedish mobile phone market. The operator can gain from this situation by tightening the network effect to the existing sub-scribers. This can be done by encouraging them to have addi-tional subscriptions from the same operator or intra-operator multiple subscriptions. For the regulator, this situation has to be taken into consideration when determining the Significant Market Power (SMP) since a larger market share does not always indicate actual market domination.
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| 4. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Counting active SIM cards or subscribers: Implications for research and policy studies
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Telecommunication and Techno-Economics, Stockholm, June 15-16 2009.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The use of mobile density as international comparative statistics on access and use of mobile phone raises some concern about inaccuracies with potential adverse effects on decision-making. This study reviews and highlights the problematic inaccuracies and their implications for research and policy. It will provide some simple cases and descriptive statistics as evidence and proposes a new approach to determine and interpret mobile density in a more accurate way
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| 5. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Empirical exploration of factors that determine multiple mobile phone subscriptions
- 2014
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Ingår i: International Journal of Mobile Communications. - : Inderscience Publishers. - 1741-5217 .- 1470-949X. ; 12:1, s. 12-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study addresses the factors driving multiple mobile phone subscriptions by consumers in the Swedish market. The generalised Poisson model (GPR) is applied to count data obtained from two national annual surveys. The results show that business subscription and household size are consistently the main predictors of the multiple mobile phone subscriptions. This indicates that organisations, i. e., company and household, are important units of consumers in the mobile market that potential for expanding the consumers base. Demographics characteristics such as age, income and gender in addition to the use of mobile internet are also found as significant predictor. The operator could gain from this situation by applying relevant marketing strategies to the targeted consumers' segment as well as tightening the network effect to the relevant consumers' social group. This may be done by encouraging them to have additional subscriptions from the same operator or intra-operator multiple subscriptions, for instance through service bundling or collective subscriptions.
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| 6. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating Mobile Phone Non-subscribers and Quasi-subscribers by Sampling
- 2009
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Ingår i: 2009 Global Information Infrastructure Symposium, GIIS '09; Hammemet; Tunisia; 23 June 2009 through 26 June 2009. - 9781424446230 ; , s. Art. no. 5307104-
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper advances a new concept, quasi-subscribers, to define the incidence of mobile phone multiple subscriptions. Through survey data, the paper shows that in Sweden the number of quasi-subscribers constitutes a significant portion of the mobile phone subscribers. Hence, there is a significant bias in the traditional method of measuring mobile subscribers which is mostly based on the number of subscriptions and active SIM cards in the population. This situation is likely to hold for many other countries. Such a bias may contribute to faulty policy, strategic and research analysis, with possibly unfavorable consequences for decision-making that is based on such analysis.
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| 7. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974, et al.
(författare)
-
Intergenerational effects of mobile service diffusion in Sweden
- 2011
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Ingår i: 5th ITS Africa-Asia-Australasia Regional Conference, Perth,WesternAustralia,November13-16.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper addresses the intergenerational effects of mobile telephone service diffusion in Sweden. Using the Norton-Bass and Islam-Meade models, it plots annual mobile service penetration rate data from the year 1956 to 2010 to explain the pattern of mobile telephone service diffusion. The results show that only Norton-Bass model could achieve convergence status in the program iteration. The model fit indicates that Norton-Bass model is still reasonably good for explaining the intergenerational diffusion process. The results also show that the coefficient of innovation p has a lower value than the coefficient of imitation q. This suggests that the diffusion process is affected more by external factors, such as word of mouth, than by inherent innovativeness of users. Furthermore, the results also indicate that each type of technology has a different market potential with the later technology having higher market potential then the previous. This suggests that there is a positive intergenerational effect on the adoption decision from the proportion already adopted. Furthermore, the study also recognizes that the intergenerational process of mobile communication technology diffusion is comparable to the evolutionary process of technology in the sense that the process shows two main evolutionary features, i.e. the emergence of technology variation across generation and the selection process from earlier generation of technology to the new one. Therefore, evolutionary framework may be applicable to understand the diffusion process of a technology.
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| 8. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974
(författare)
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Multiple subscriptions of mobile telephony: Explaining the diffusion pattern using sampling data
- 2013
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Ingår i: Telecommunications Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-5961. ; 37:10, s. 930-939
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most mobile telephony diffusion studies use penetration rate based market data as the proxy and assume each adoption as the first adoption, an approach which often overlooks the multiple-subscription phenomenon. This paper, instead, aims to explain the diffusion of mobile telephony, taking the multiple-subscription phenomenon into consideration. For this purpose, time-series sampling-based penetration rate data are used as the proxy and simultaneous non-linear equations are applied to fundamental diffusion models, i.e. Gomperts, logistic and Bass models to model the diffusion pattern of each type of adopters, i.e. adopters with single subscriptions and one with multiple subscriptions. Taking the Swedish market as the case, the result shows that each type of adopters has a different diffusion pattern as a result of different saturation levels and delay factor for diffusion growth. Based on the generated diffusion curves, the remaining mobile telephony non-adopters in the Swedish population and the fraction of multiple subscribers and its growth trend can be estimated and relevant business and policy implications can be discussed. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Quasi-subscribers and Demand Saturation: An Analysis of the Swedish Mobile Phone Market
- 2010
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Telecommunication and Techno-Economics, 7-9 June 2010, Ghent, Belgium. - 9781424479887 ; , s. Art. no. 5557708-
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study provide an analysis to explain the emergence of quasi-subscribers – mobile phone subscribers with multiple subscriptions – and discusses its impact on the demand saturation for mobile phone subscription in Sweden. Using a logistic growth model and nonlinear regression based on observations from the year 2002 to 2009, the study estimates that the quasi-subscribers exaggerate the penetration and demand saturation level in the Swedish mobile phone market. This implies that the mobile phone subscriptions will still continue to grow despite the recent high level of penetration rate in Sweden. It also indicates that demand saturation in the mobile phone market should not be forecasted solely on the basis of the number of subscriptions or the number of subscribers. Instead it should be estimated by examining the trend of both, so that the proportion of quasi-subscribers can also be revealed and a better projection of saturation level can be made. Furthermore, future studies are necessary to investigate factors driving the phenomenon of quasi-subscribers as well as to find a suitable business and policy strategy to overcome the potential problems.
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| 10. |
- Annafari, Tsani, 1974
(författare)
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Quasi-subscribers in the Swedish Mobile Phone Market: The Phenomenon and Determinant Factors
- 2010
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis investigates the problematic inaccuracies of mobile phone density as a measure on access and use of mobile phones. The inaccuracies are presumably caused by the presence of quasi-subscribers - mobile phone users with multiple active SIM cards or subscriptions - that exaggerate the actual number of mobile phone users.From a macro perspective, this thesis finds that quasi-subscribers distort the accuracy of mobile density when used as a single proxy in representing the diffusion process of mobile phones. The cumulative mobile phone operator data, as the source of mobile density, inflate the actual number of adopters reflected in the diffusion curve and obscure the saturation level in the market. This is the result of the inability of the data to reflect the intra- and inter-operator multiple subscriptions.The investigation of the Swedish mobile phone market concludes that factors determining multiple subscriptions that lead to the presence of quasi-subscribers mostly come from subscriptions for business purpose and subscriptions for other family members. Moreover, the use of mobile data communication also has some impacts on the emergence of additional subscriptions. A different tendency however, is observed in different mobile phone markets, i.e. Thailand market. This indicates that the determinant factors of multiple subscriptions depend on the mobile phone market characteristics. As a contribution, this thesis proposes the use of a survey-based mobile phone density as a complementary index to operator-based mobile density. By doing so, the potential market as well as the saturation level in the market can be better projected. Further, the thesis also emphasizes organizations as unit of consumers in addition to individual consumers. This should be taken into account when investigating the consumers’ behavior in mobile telecommunication studies since the organization as unit of consumer may behave differently compare to individuals.
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