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| 2. |
- Applegate, Patrick J., et al.
(författare)
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An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland ice sheet behavior
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416 .- 1994-0424. ; 6:3, s. 589-606
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is similar to 40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
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| 3. |
- Bartlett, Sofia R., et al.
(författare)
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Sequencing of Hepatitis C Virus for Detection of Resistance to Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy : A Systematic Review
- 2017
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Ingår i: HEPATOLOGY COMMUNICATIONS. - : JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD. - 2471-254X. ; 1:5, s. 379-390
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The significance of the clinical impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) on treatment failure is unclear. No standardized methods or guidelines for detection of DAA RASs in HCV exist. To facilitate further evaluations of the impact of DAA RASs in HCV, we conducted a systematic review of RAS sequencing protocols, compiled a comprehensive public library of sequencing primers, and provided expert guidance on the most appropriate methods to screen and identify RASs. The development of standardized RAS sequencing protocols is complicated due to a high genetic variability and the need for genotype- and subtype-specific protocols for multiple regions. We have identified several limitations of the available methods and have highlighted areas requiring further research and development. The development, validation, and sharing of standardized methods for all genotypes and subtypes should be a priority.
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| 4. |
- Kelly, Meredith A., et al.
(författare)
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Late glacial fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, southeastern Peru
- 2012
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Ingår i: Geology. - 0091-7613 .- 1943-2682. ; 40:11, s. 991-994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The last glacial-interglacial transition (ca. 18-11 ka) was interrupted by abrupt climate events that differed in each hemisphere. During the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ca. 14.5-12.9 ka), the Southern Hemisphere high and mid latitudes cooled, while the Northern Hemisphere warmed. The pattern of change then reversed during the Younger Dryas (ca. 12.9-11.7 ka), which was characterized by cold conditions in much of the Northern Hemisphere. Well-dated paleoclimate records serve to reveal the possible mechanisms for these events. Here we present a reconstruction of the late glacial fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, located in the southern tropics, based on 38 new radiocarbon ages. Quelccaya was retreating from its Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 21 ka) extent by ca. 17.2 ka, and was located upvalley from its late glacial moraines by 13.6-12.8 ka. Quelccaya experienced a significant readvance that culminated at 12.5-12.4 ka, and then receded several kilometers to near, or within, its late Holocene extent by ca. 11.6 ka. This record provides the most detailed evidence yet of glacier fluctuations in the southern tropics during late glacial time.
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| 5. |
- Kleman, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Durations and propagation patterns of ice sheet instability events
- 2014
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 92, s. 32-39
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Continued atmospheric and ocean warming places parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet at risk for collapse through accelerated ice flow and grounding line retreat over reversed bed slopes. However, understanding of the speed and duration of ice sheet instability events remains incomplete, limiting our ability to include these events in sea level rise projections. Here, we use a first-order, empirical approach, exploring past instability events in the Fennoscandian (FIS) and Laurentide (LIS) ice sheets to establish a relationship between catchment size and the duration of instability events. We also examine how instabilities propagate through ice sheet catchments, and how this propagation is controlled by topography and existing flow organisation at the onset of an event. We find that the fastest documented paleo-collapses involved streaming or surging in corridors that are wide compared to their length, and in which fast flow did not resume after the event. Distributed ice stream networks, in which narrow ice streams were intertwined with slow-flow interstream ridges, are not represented among the fastest documented events. For the FIS and LIS, there is geological evidence for instability events covering areas of similar to 100,000 km(2), with durations between 100 and 300 yr. Comparison of the spatial patterns and topographic contexts of Lateglacial collapse events in former Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the current WAIS suggest that only a minor part of the WAIS area may be at risk for unimpeded collapse, and that negative feedbacks will likely slow or halt ice drawdown in remaining areas. The Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG) catchments in West Antarctica are likely to respond in very different ways to possible further grounding line retreat. The PIG may experience a minor collapse over its main trunk, but the bed topography favours a less dramatic retreat thereafter. The TG is probably not as close to a threshold as PIG, but once efficient drainage has progressed inwards to reach the Bentley Subglacial Basin (BSB) and Bentley Subglacial Trench (BST), a full collapse of the area may occur. The likely time perspective for a BSB BST collapse is the time required for 100-200 km of grounding line retreat in the TG system plus 100-300 years for an actual collapse event.
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