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- Hagbert, Pernilla, Dr, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Futures Beyond GDP Growth : Final report from the research program 'Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning'
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A future society no longer based on economic growth – what would that look like?The research program “Beyond GDP Growth: Scenarios for sustainable building and planning” (www.bortombnptillvaxt.se) is a strong research environment funded by the Swedish Research CouncilFormas, which has run between 2014 and 2018. In collaboration with societal partners, the program hasgathered researchers from diferent disciplines to explore key issues and conditions for planning for asustainable future beyond GDP growth. This is a relevant contribution to a largely under-researchedarea, where few scientific studies have explored what a sustainable society could look like, and what asustainable economy that is not based on growth might actually mean.In economic and political discussions, the notion of continuous economic growth is often taken forgranted and seen as a prerequisite for a safe and sustainable societal development. At the same time,a blind faith in and expectations surrounding growth can constitute a threat to the development of asustainable society if growth declines. Also an optimistic prognosis from the OECD indicates that it islikely that future GDP growth will be lower than what has come to be seen as the normal level duringthe second half of the 20th century. Declining economic growth could mean risks for increased socialgaps and unemployment. However, economic models show that the possibilities for handling these risksincrease if there is an awareness of them, and if this is addressed politically. Therefore, it is important tonot just assume continued economic growth, but to plan also for alternative scenarios.A starting point for the research program has been an understanding of the significant transitionsneeded to approach a safe and just operating space for humanity within planetary boundaries. Fourgoals that should be met in order to consider the societal development sustainable were specified: twoenvironmental goals related to climate and land use, and two social goals regarding power, influence andparticipation, and welfare and resource security.Four scenarios for Sweden 2050 were developed, which show the diferent directions society could taketo reach the set sustainability goals. The scenarios illustrate future societies that do not have to build onthe current economic logic, but that instead are centred around four alternative strategies:Collaborative EconomyLocal Self-SufciencyAutomation for Quality of LifeCircular Economy in the Welfare StateSo, can we reach the selected sustainability targets in the four future scenarios? A transformation ofhistorical proportions are needed – and it needs to start immediately. According to the sustainabilityassessment conducted within the project, the environmental goals of climate and land use can be reachedin all scenarios, even though it demands changing multiple parameters at the same time. Nothing pointsto it being impossible or generally difcult to achieve the social goals in the four scenarios, however theremight be diferent aspects that are particularly tricky. There are both development potentials and risks,which can be diametrically opposite for diferent social groups and parts of the country, depending onthe local prerequisites.Many diferent images of sustainable futures are needed. The scenarios should be seen as a tool fordiscussion and analysis when it comes to planning for a sustainable societal development beyondGDP growth. They challenge notions of what is possible, what changes that can and should be made,6what decisions that are needed and what should be prioritized. The scenarios all suggest a largechange compared the current development trajectory, and for example all point towards the need forredistribution of resources. It might involve economic resources, but could also relate to power andinfluence over production, or the possibility to use land for production of food, materials and energy.This redistribution could happen according to diferent principles in the diferent scenarios.In all the scenarios, the consumption of goods and of meat is reduced. Flight travel also needs to bedrastically reduced to reach the climate target. There is furthermore a need for reducing the constructionof both housing and road infrastructure, although to varying extents in the four scenarios. Other aspectssuch as working hours, the organization of welfare systems, the characteristics of the built environmentand the amount of infrastructure needed are on the other hand diferent in the diferent scenarios.The research program has explored what a development that isn't based on economic growth, in linewith the strategies that are depicted in the scenarios, would mean for rural as well as urban conditions.Three case study municipalities were selected with regards to their diferent geographical location,built form, economic development and size of the population: Övertorneå, Alingsås and Malmö. Insome sub-studies in these diferent contexts, descriptions emerged of cognitive as well as structuralbarriers, a sense of powerlessness and a weak capacity for transition among diferent actors. This isconnected to expectations and general assumptions regarding growth, partly irrespective of the context.Municipalities and companies to a large extent plan for and expect a societal development that buildsupon a further expansion of infrastructure, transport and consumption. Despite visions for sustainabledevelopment, in practice this often leads to a reproduction of current unsustainable structures and waysof life.At the same time, specific empirical studies within the project point toward stories of self-sufciency,of regional upswings and that the population is more important than GDP. There is an increasedawareness and a multitude of examples of experimenting with new sustainable practices that constituteseeds for change. Critiques against planning for continuous growth is being taken more seriously andclearer political visions are demanded. New forms of organizing the economy, society and welfare arealso being developed. Some examples include working from a perspective on socio-ecological justice,integration of sustainability targets in all planning, and developing new roles for consumers andproducers. These ideas can be seen as windows of opportunity, but also show that change can happenwithin the current system.The future means change. In this research program, we point towards some possible futures that aimat reaching certain sustainability targets. The scenarios and the discussion and analysis that they havebrought about show that there is an opportunity to move towards a sustainable development withmaintained or even increased well-being – provided that the understanding of well-being is based onother values than those of our current society. For these possible future trajectories to gain support,there is a need of political instruments and measures that actively drive the development towards a justand safe operating space for humanity
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- Svenfelt, Åsa, et al.
(författare)
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Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and the goal is instead other values/goals that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed, that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of the four scenarios is: 1) collaborative economy, 2) local self-sufficiency, 3) automation for quality of life, and 4) circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios should also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability goals and the multi-target approach.
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- Svenfelt, Åsa, et al.
(författare)
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Scenarios for sustainable futures beyond GDP growth 2050
- 2019
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Ingår i: Futures. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0016-3287 .- 1873-6378. ; 111, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The idea of continued economic growth is increasingly questioned and critically analysed on the basis of its potential negative sustainability impact. Along with the critique, visions and strategies for alternative systems need also be brought onto the agenda. The aim of this paper is to present the qualitative content of scenarios that explore sustainability strategies for the Swedish society when economic growth is not seen as an end in itself, and instead the objective is other values/targets that society might wish to achieve. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are developed that illustrate future states in which four sustainability targets (climate, land use, participation, and resource security) are to be attained. The focus of these four scenarios is: 1) a Collaborative economy, 2) Local self-sufficiency, 3) Automation for quality of life, and 4) Circular economy in the welfare state. In the paper, we also present the process of the development of the scenarios, and feedback from stakeholders. Although the focus is on Sweden, the process and scenarios may also be relevant for other similar countries. The scenarios are discussed in terms of their relevance and their purpose, the fulfilment of the sustainability targets, and the multi-target approach.
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- Aretun, Åsa, 1970-
(författare)
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Barns ”växa vilt” och vuxnas vilja att forma : Formell och informell socialisation i en muslimsk skola
- 2007
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of the thesis is to examine how children as social beings and actors form themselves within the framework of a school institution that adults have set up in order to shape them in deliberate ways through nurturing education. The study is based on long-term fieldwork in a Muslim faith school in Sweden.Muslim schools have aroused a great deal of debate in Swedish society.Opponents have argued that Muslim schools lead to segregation and social exclusion, that these schools risk not promoting the fundamental values of society and that children in these schools are met by religious propaganda. Advocates of these schools have maintained that in public schools the Muslim identity is eroded by ignorance, lack of understanding and racism. Muslim schools instead offer children knowledge of their culture and religion in a way that enhances their identity and makes them secure and whole human beings who can be integrated into society. The debate reflects that school institutions function as loci for contested forms of socialisation in society; national, ethnic, religious, or the struggle of other groups for cultural production and social reproduction in which they are united in the role and importance attached to the school institution in the shaping of young people. In the debate children appear as passive receivers and products of adults’ upbringing and education, which represents both threat and opportunity.The debate around Muslim schools reflects adult-centred ideas of socialisation, where the adults’ upbringing and education is placed at the centre of the process in which children are formed into social persons. What emerged from this study is that children are social actors who shape themselves and that this shaping is more of an informal social process than a formal education process. The study raises the profile of how the school constitutes an environment in which children are in the majority and adults in the minority; a social environment in which children have significantly more social contact and a greater number of social relations with each other than with adults. The school as a child-centred social environment is reflected in the fact that it is principally children who shape each other rather than adults shaping children.
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- Aretun, Åsa, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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Developments in driver’s licence holding among young people : potential explanations, implications and trends
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This literature review examines the factors that influence the development in the driver’s licence rate among young people in different age groups, socioeconomic groups and geographical contexts, as well as the impact on the welfare of young people of holding or not holding a driver’s licence. The review also includes research on trends, prognoses and evaluations of developments in driver’s licence holding, and knowledge on any links between changes in driver licensing and falling car usage among young people. The review shows that several factors appear to explain and influence the driver licensing trend among young people, while, at the same time, there is a great difference in driver’s licence holding among different groups. More research is needed to investigate the extent to which the declining driver licensing rates is a general trend and/or opposite trends between different groups of young people, and with different welfare impacts.
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- Aretun, Åsa, et al.
(författare)
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Ekonomiska styrmedel för en hållbar personbilstrafik : konsekvenser för tillgänglighet: en kunskapsöversikt
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Syftet med denna rapport är att presentera en översikt av befintliga styrmedel i Norge och Sverige som avser att ge ekonomiska incitament för individer att förändra sin bilanvändning i hållbar riktning. Syftet är vidare att ge en kunskapsöversikt kring hur dessa styrmedel har behandlats i internationell tillgänglighetsforskning där frågor kring jämlikhet och fördelning av tillgänglighet mellan individer och grupper i samhället fokuseras. Rapporten inleds med en översikt av befintliga styrmedel som syftar till hållbar personbilstrafik i Norge och Sverige. Rapporten fortsätter med en introduktion av internationell tillgänglighetsforskning; hur tillgänglighet, jämlikhet och fördelning konceptualiseras och utforskas inom denna forskning och forskningens centrala resultat. Därefter redogörs för hur ekonomiska styrmedel som syftar till hållbar personbilstrafik behandlas i tillgänglighetslitteraturen samt vilka behov av vidare forskning som identifieras i denna litteratur. Rapporten avslutas med att presentera ett antal områden av relevans för fortsatt forskning i Sverige och Norge. I rapporten visas att ekonomiska styrmedel riktade mot personbilstrafik för att åstadkomma hållbara transporter har uppmärksammats alltmer i internationell tillgänglighetsforskning under senare år. I tillgänglighetslitteraturen behandlas och diskuteras dessa ekonomiska styrmedel utifrån forskningsresultat inom fältet kring ojämlika strukturella förhållanden när det gäller medborgares tillgång till transporter och dess sociala konsekvenser. Genomgående bedöms de ekonomiska styrmedlen leda till att transportrelaterad social ojämlikhet och utsatthet ökar. Styrmedlen förväntas försämra tillgängligheten för de medborgare som har svårt att bära ökade transportkostnader, men som samtidigt måste använda bil för att få tillgång till nödvändiga samhällsfunktioner såsom exempelvis arbete, baskonsumtion, utbildning, hälso- och sjukvård. I grunden hänger denna problematik samman med en bilanpassad samhällsbyggnad avseende lokaliseringsmönster och transportinfrastruktur som försvårar för människor att skapa tillgänglighet med andra transportmedel: gång-, cykel- och kollektivtrafik. De ekonomiska styrmedlen avvisas inte som sådana i litteraturen. Däremot riktas kritik mot att införandet av dessa inte åtföljs av förändrade lokaliseringsmönster samt satsningar på alternativ transportinfrastruktur som minskar medborgares bilberoende och som därmed skulle mildra negativa jämlikhets- och fördelningseffekter.
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