| 1. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 2. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 3. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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| 6. |
- Arfan, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Biogas as a transport fuel—a system analysis of value chain development in a Swedish context
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 13:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biofuels policy instruments are important in the development and diffusion of biogas as a transport fuel in Sweden. Their effectiveness with links to geodemographic conditions has not been analysed systematically in studying biogas development in a less urbanised regions, with high potential and primitive gas infrastructure. One such region identified is Gävleborg in Sweden. By using value chain statistics, interviews with related actors, and studying biofuels policy instruments and implications for biogas development, it is found that the policy measures have not been as effective in the region as in the rest of Sweden due to different geodemographic characteristics of the region, which has resulted in impeded biogas development. In addition to factors found in previous studies, the less-developed biogas value chain in this region can be attributed particularly to undefined rules of the game, which is lack of consensus on trade-off of resources and services, unnecessary competition among several fuel alternatives, as well as the ambiguity of municipalities’ prioritization, and regional cultural differences. To strengthen the regional biogas sector, system actors need a strategy to eliminate blocking effects of identified local factors, and national policy instruments should provide mechanisms to process geographical conditions in regulatory, economic support, and market formation.
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| 7. |
- Arfan, Muhammad
(författare)
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Biogas Value Chain in Gävleborg : Feedstock, Production and Use
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report aims to identify the current status and future opportunities for biogas as an alternative fuel for road transport in the Gävleborg region. The regional actors along the value chain are mapped by their role in feedstock supply, production and use of the biogas. Mapping and analysis of biogas development generally in Sweden and particularly in the Gävleborg region has been conducted primarily through literature, national and regional statistics and through interviews with the regional actors. About 15 companies were reached through emails and phone calls during the interview process.In 2017, about 3.5-4.0 million Nm3 of raw biogas (50-65% CH4) was produced in the region of which 3.6 GWh was upgraded. The region has two plants with upgrading facilities, one in Forsbacka, which produces gas mainly from food waste and Duvbacken, the wastewater treatment plant in Gävle. The gas produced at these two big facilities is upgraded and mostly used as transport fuel in the region, and for the industry. Gas produced from other sources is either used for heat and electricity production or flared to avoid methane emissions to the environment. The region has 14 buses and more than 500 other vehicles running on biogas. The gas infrastructure is not well developed in the region except for two filling stations situated in Gävle and Forsbacka. However, some developments on building biogas infrastructure for transport are in process.Analysis of interviews with actors and literature studies revealed that the region has much more feedstock for biogas production than used in the currently installed capacity of biogas technologies. Many actors showed great interest in its use as transport fuel but had very serious concerns about its future scope. Lack of supporting infrastructure such as filling stations, very low market demand and regional long-term strategies on biogas as transport fuel are considered barriers in the sector´s further development in the region. The value chain actors need to work more closely to get the most out of this valuable resource. Additionally, future planning on biogas should also consider its other uses such as an energy source for manufacturing industry, shipping and as raw material for chemicals or intermediate products.
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| 8. |
- Arfan, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of hydrogen production from biowaste and biomass in Sweden
- 2023
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Ingår i: Energy Conversion and Management. - : Elsevier. - 0196-8904 .- 1879-2227. ; 291
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, an environmental and economic assessment of hydrogen production from biowaste and biomass is performed from a life cycle perspective, with a high degree of primary life cycle inventory data on materials, energy, and investment flows. Using SimaPro LCA software and CML-IA, 2001 impact assessment method, ten environmental impact categories are analyzed for environmental analysis. Economic analysis includes capital and operational expenditures and monetization cost of life cycle environmental impacts. The hydrogen production from biowaste has a high climate impact, photochemical oxidant, and freshwater eutrophication than biomass while it performs far better in ozone depletion, terrestrial ecotoxicity, abiotic depletion-fossil, abiotic depletion, human toxicity, and freshwater ecotoxicity. The sensitivity analysis of LCA results indicates that feedstock to biogas/pyrolysis-oil yields ratio and the type of energy source for the reforming process can significantly influence the results, particularly climate change, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity. The life cycle cost (LCC) of 1 kg hydrogen production has been accounted as 0.45–2.76 € with biowaste and 0.54–3.31 € with biomass over the plant's lifetime of 20 years. From the environmental impacts of climate change, photochemical oxidant, and freshwater eutrophication hydrogen production from biomass is a better option than biowaste while from other included impact categories and LCC perspectives it’s biowaste. This research contributes to bioresources to hydrogen literature with some new findings that can be generalized in Europe and even globally as it is in line with and endorse existing theoretical and simulation software-based studies.
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| 9. |
- Arfan, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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The geography of technological innovation systems - The case of forest-based biofuels in a Swedish region
- 2024
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Ingår i: Innovation and Green Development. - : Elsevier. - 2949-7531. ; 3:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Geographical proximity exerts a substantial influence on structural evolution, developmental trajectory, and pace of sociotechnical system growth. This study explores this aspect within the context of the development of forest biomass-based biofuel technology, employing a Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework with the lens of geographical proximity utilization of system components. The research employed a combination of document analysis and interviews with key system stakeholders as data collection methods. The analysis reveals that the close geographical proximity of the system components and technologies, encompassing both technical aspects and sectors, did not result in synergetic effects, in contrast to prior TIS research findings. Rather than fostering collaboration, it has engendered a competitive dynamic, partially driven by actors vying for knowledge leads and funding from both regional and national agencies. Consequently, the potential benefits of geographical proximity of system components remain largely untapped. In light of these results, this study offers practical recommendations for exploiting untapped opportunities, advocating for more strategic use of geographical proximity to foster system technology development and enhance its role in national TIS development. This case study enriches sustainability transition literature by providing valuable insights into the role of geographical proximity in innovation processes.
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| 10. |
- Arfan, Muhammad
(författare)
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Utilization of local bioresources for transport fuels - System analysis for decision support
- 2023
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis presents a comprehensive system analysis of the utilization of biowaste and forest industry residues to produce transportation fuels. It explores various aspects such as the constraints to the production system’s value chain development, the utilization of the geographical proximity of biofuel technology innovation system components, environmental impacts, and economic costs. The primary goal is to establish a knowledge base that can aid regional policymakers and decision-makers in formulating informed policies for the efficient management of local bioresources for transport fuel production. By addressing these aspects, the study seeks to contribute to the wider discourse on efficient local bioresource management and transition to a low-carbon economy. The focused bioresources in this thesis are municipal biowaste and forest industry residues (i.e., sawdust, black liquor, crude tall oil, and fiber waste of the pulp and paper industry). The study focuses on three systems: i) biowaste to biogas for transport, ii) biowaste and sawdust to hydrogen, and iii) forest industry residues to liquid biofuels for transport.The biofuel policy instruments in Sweden have proven to be effective in introducing alternative transport fuels, particularly in big cities or urban areas. The results of the biowaste to biogas value chain analysis show that development in the Gävleborg region is stagnated throughout the value chain compared to the national average. This stagnation is mainly attributed to local geodemographic factors. The identified obstacles to development include a lack of regional political agreement regarding the use of biogas as a viable transport fuel, insufficient connectivity and communication among the various regional actors and stakeholders, and a limited understanding among stakeholders of the potential and socio-economic impacts of biogas. The environmental and economic assessment of hydrogen production from biowaste and sawdust is performed from a life cycle perspective, using SimaPro LCA software and CML-IA, 2001 impact assessment method. Economic analysis includes capital and operational expenditures and monetization cost of life cycle environmental impacts. The results show that hydrogen production from biowaste has a higher global warming, photochemical oxidant, and freshwater eutrophication potential than sawdust. Biowaste conversion to hydrogen performs far better in ozone depletion, terrestrial ecotoxicity, abiotic depletion-fossil, abiotic depletion, human toxicity, and freshwater ecotoxicity potential. The fossil energy inputs in biogas and pyrolysis oil reforming, emissions from the digestate treatment, storage, and utilization as bio-fertilizer are the main contributing processes to the overall environmental impacts of biowaste and sawdust conversion to hydrogen. The sensitivity analysis of the LCA results indicates that feedstock to biogas/pyrolysis oil yield ratio and the type of energy source for the reforming process can significantly influence the results, particularly climate change, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity. The life cycle cost (LCC) analysis reveals that the production of hydrogen from biowaste exhibits a lower cost compared to sawdust. This significant cost reduction in the biowaste case can be attributed to lower variable operating expenses (OPEX), primarily due to the price of the biowaste itself. Whereas, in the sawdust case, the feedstock contributes the highest percentage (54%) to the system's OPEX, indicating that variable OPEX is highly sensitive to sawdust prices. Additionally, the capital investment required for the biowaste case was 50% lower, which further contributes to the lower overall LCC compared to the sawdust case.The results of forest industry residues to liquid biofuel technology development and the utilization of system components in geographical proximity indicate that geographical proximity can significantly influence the system’s structural growth, trajectory, and development pace. An adapted version of the technological innovation system (TIS) framework was operationalized with the lens of geographical proximity utilization of the system components to the technology development and diffusion. The method of data acquisition involved document analysis and interviews with subsystem actors. The study found that the development of the system is hampered by competition between technologies and low utilization of geographical proximity of the system components, which was partly attributed to a lack of network among subsystem actors and with the national TIS structure. Bioresources in Gävleborg are present in substantial amounts, particularly biowaste from agriculture, the food industry, and households, as well as biomass from the forest industry, which have the potential to be utilized for transport fuel production. However, the evolution of their utilization to power transportation in Gävleborg has been delayed in comparison to several other regions in Sweden. In the case of the technology development of forest industry residue-based transport fuels, the utilization of geographical proximity of artefacts and institutions has played a crucial role. Significant strides have been accomplished in diverse technology domains. However, these advancements have faced obstacles, partially due to the rivalry among system actors aiming to secure a competitive edge in acquiring both knowledge and capital resources and the underutilization of the geographical proximity of actors and industry networks. Based on these research findings, recommendations are provided to support policy and strategy aiming to enhance the utilization of local bioresources for transportation fuels sustainably and cost-effectively with increased local benefits. For example, the study recommends addressing the identified local political, communication, and networking issues, along with integrating regional geodemographic conditions into national biofuel policies and measures. By addressing identified challenges, the Gävleborg region can overcome the stagnation in bioresource to transportation fuel technological systems development and leverage its significant potential.This thesis adds valuable insights to the sustainability transition literature about the environment, economy, and the geography of innovation processes. The findings highlight the need for policy interventions to foster collaboration, coordination, and knowledge sharing among stakeholders, as well as support for the development and commercialization of emerging technologies, including forest-based transport fuel technologies. The analysis of cost and environmental impacts of bioresource utilization for hydrogen production provides insights into the potential trade-offs and benefits of different feedstocks and impact categories. The study provides important input for policy and strategy development towards a more sustainable and cost-effective use of local bioresources for transport fuel production in Gävleborg. This study can also serve as a valuable reference for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders interested in the sustainable utilization of renewable resources for biofuel production, contributing to the advancement of knowledge in this critical area.
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