| 1. |
- Coresh, Josef, et al.
(författare)
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Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 311:24, s. 2518-2531
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event.OBJECTIVE: To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated.DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data.DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR.RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.
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| 2. |
- Matsushita, Kunihiro, et al.
(författare)
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Measures of chronic kidney disease and risk of incident peripheral artery disease : a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data.
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 5:9, s. 718-728
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Some evidence suggests that chronic kidney disease is a risk factor for lower-extremity peripheral artery disease. We aimed to quantify the independent and joint associations of two measures of chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) with the incidence of peripheral artery disease.METHODS: In this collaborative meta-analysis of international cohorts included in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (baseline measurements obtained between 1972 and 2014) with baseline measurements of eGFR and albuminuria, at least 1000 participants (this criterion not applied to cohorts exclusively enrolling patients with chronic kidney disease), and at least 50 peripheral artery disease events, we analysed adult participants without peripheral artery disease at baseline at the individual patient level with Cox proportional hazards models to quantify associations of creatinine-based eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), and dipstick proteinuria with the incidence of peripheral artery disease (including hospitalisation with a diagnosis of peripheral artery disease, intermittent claudication, leg revascularisation, and leg amputation). We assessed discrimination improvement through c-statistics.FINDINGS: We analysed 817 084 individuals without a history of peripheral artery disease at baseline from 21 cohorts. 18 261 cases of peripheral artery disease were recorded during follow-up across cohorts (median follow-up was 7·4 years [IQR 5·7-8·9], range 2·0-15·8 years across cohorts). Both chronic kidney disease measures were independently associated with the incidence of peripheral artery disease. Compared with an eGFR of 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2), adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident study-specific peripheral artery disease was 1·22 (95% CI 1·14-1·30) at an eGFR of 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) and 2·06 (1·70-2·48) at an eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1·73 m(2). Compared with an ACR of 5 mg/g, the adjusted HR for incident study-specific peripheral artery disease was 1·50 (1·41-1·59) at an ACR of 30 mg/g and 2·28 (2·12-2·44) at an ACR of 300 mg/g. The adjusted HR at an ACR of 300 mg/g versus 5 mg/g was 3·68 (95% CI 3·00-4·52) for leg amputation. eGFR and albuminuria contributed multiplicatively (eg, adjusted HR 5·76 [4·90-6·77] for incident peripheral artery disease and 10·61 [5·70-19·77] for amputation in eGFR <30 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) plus ACR ≥300 mg/g or dipstick proteinuria 2+ or higher vs eGFR ≥90 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) plus ACR <10 mg/g or dipstick proteinuria negative). Both eGFR and ACR significantly improved peripheral artery disease risk discrimination beyond traditional predictors, with a substantial improvement prediction of amputation with ACR (difference in c-statistic 0·058, 95% CI 0·045-0·070). Patterns were consistent across clinical subgroups.INTERPRETATION: Even mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease conferred increased risk of incident peripheral artery disease, with a strong association between albuminuria and amputation. Clinical attention should be paid to the development of peripheral artery disease symptoms and signs in people with any stage of chronic kidney disease.FUNDING: American Heart Association, US National Kidney Foundation, and US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.
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| 3. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 4. |
- Peters, Ruth, et al.
(författare)
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An investigation of antihypertensive class, dementia, and cognitive decline: A meta-analysis.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 94:3, s. e267-e281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High blood pressure is one of the main modifiable risk factors for dementia. However, there is conflicting evidence regarding the best antihypertensive class for optimizing cognition. Our objective was to determine whether any particular antihypertensive class was associated with a reduced risk of cognitive decline or dementia using comprehensive meta-analysis including reanalysis of original participant data.To identify suitable studies, MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO and preexisting study consortia were searched from inception to December 2017. Authors of prospective longitudinal human studies or trials of antihypertensives were contacted for data sharing and collaboration. Outcome measures were incident dementia or incident cognitive decline (classified using the reliable change index method). Data were separated into mid and late-life (>65 years) and each antihypertensive class was compared to no treatment and to treatment with other antihypertensives. Meta-analysis was used to synthesize data.Over 50,000 participants from 27 studies were included. Among those aged >65 years, with the exception of diuretics, we found no relationship by class with incident cognitive decline or dementia. Diuretic use was suggestive of benefit in some analyses but results were not consistent across follow-up time, comparator group, and outcome. Limited data precluded meaningful analyses in those ≤65 years of age.Our findings, drawn from the current evidence base, support clinical freedom in the selection of antihypertensive regimens to achieve blood pressure goals.The review was registered with the international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO), registration number CRD42016045454.
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| 5. |
- Rådholm, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Older age is a strong predictor for poor outcome in intracerebral haemorrhage : the INTERACT2 study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Age and Ageing. - : Oxford University Press. - 0002-0729 .- 1468-2834. ; 44:3, s. 422-427
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:: Global ageing contributes greatly to the burden of stroke. We investigated the influence of age on the baseline profile and on outcomes in acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) among participants of the INTERACT2 study.METHODS:: INTERACT2 was an international, randomised controlled trial in 2839 patients with spontaneous ICH within 6 h of onset and elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP; 150-220 mmHg) who were allocated to receive intensive (target SBP <140 mmHg within 1 h) or guideline-recommended (target SBP <180 mmHg) blood pressure lowering treatment. Stroke severity was assessed with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Poor outcome was defined as death or major disability ('dependency', modified Rankin Scale scores 3-6) at 90 days. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was assessed with the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) questionnaire. Associations between age and outcomes were analysed in multivariable logistic regression models.RESULTS:: Stroke severity increased in categories of older age (P-trend 0.002). Stroke patients over 75 years old were four times more likely to die or be disabled at 90 days than those <52 years when other confounders were accounted for (odds ratio 4.36, 95% confidence interval 3.12-6.08). Older age was also associated with decreasing HRQoL, across mobility, self-care, usual activities and depression (all P-trend <0.001), and pain or discomfort (P-trend 0.022).CONCLUSION:: In the INTERACT2 cohort, older people had more severe ICH and worse outcomes (death, major disability and HRQoL). These data will help guide clinicians manage older people with haemorrhagic stroke. Clinical Trial Registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00716079).
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| 6. |
- Salvi, Erika, et al.
(författare)
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Genomewide Association Study Using a High-Density Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Array and Case-Control Design Identifies a Novel Essential Hypertension Susceptibility Locus in the Promoter Region of Endothelial NO Synthase.
- 2012
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Ingår i: Hypertension. - 1524-4563. ; 59:2, s. 248-248
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Essential hypertension is a multifactorial disorder and is the main risk factor for renal and cardiovascular complications. The research on the genetics of hypertension has been frustrated by the small predictive value of the discovered genetic variants. The HYPERGENES Project investigated associations between genetic variants and essential hypertension pursuing a 2-stage study by recruiting cases and controls from extensively characterized cohorts recruited over many years in different European regions. The discovery phase consisted of 1865 cases and 1750 controls genotyped with 1M Illumina array. Best hits were followed up in a validation panel of 1385 cases and 1246 controls that were genotyped with a custom array of 14 055 markers. We identified a new hypertension susceptibility locus (rs3918226) in the promoter region of the endothelial NO synthase gene (odds ratio: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37-1.73]; combined P=2.58 · 10(-13)). A meta-analysis, using other in silico/de novo genotyping data for a total of 21 714 subjects, resulted in an overall odds ratio of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.25-1.44; P=1.032 · 10(-14)). The quantitative analysis on a population-based sample revealed an effect size of 1.91 (95% CI: 0.16-3.66) for systolic and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.25-2.55) for diastolic blood pressure. We identified in silico a potential binding site for ETS transcription factors directly next to rs3918226, suggesting a potential modulation of endothelial NO synthase expression. Biological evidence links endothelial NO synthase with hypertension, because it is a critical mediator of cardiovascular homeostasis and blood pressure control via vascular tone regulation. This finding supports the hypothesis that there may be a causal genetic variation at this locus.
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| 7. |
- Sundström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Blood pressure-lowering treatment based on cardiovascular risk : a meta-analysis of individual patient data
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9943, s. 591-598
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundWe aimed to investigate whether the benefits of blood pressure-lowering drugs are proportional to baseline cardiovascular risk, to establish whether absolute risk could be used to inform treatment decisions for blood pressure-lowering therapy, as is recommended for lipid-lowering therapy. MethodsThis meta-analysis included individual participant data from trials that randomly assigned patients to either blood pressure-lowering drugs or placebo, or to more intensive or less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. The primary outcome was total major cardiovascular events, consisting of stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. Participants were separated into four categories of baseline 5-year major cardiovascular risk using a risk prediction equation developed from the placebo groups of the included trials (<11%, 11-15%, 15-21%, >21%).Findings11 trials and 26 randomised groups met the inclusion criteria, and included 67 475 individuals, of whom 51 917 had available data for the calculation of the risk equations. 4167 (8%) had a cardiovascular event during a median of 4.0 years (IQR 3.4-4.4) of follow-up. The mean estimated baseline levels of 5-year cardiovascular risk for each of the four risk groups were 6 0% (SD 2.0), 12.1% (1.5), 17.7% (1.7), and 26.8% (5.4). In each consecutive higher risk group, blood pressure-lowering treatment reduced the risk of cardiovascular events relatively by 18% (95% CI 7-27), 15% (4-25), 13% (2-22), and 15% (5-24), respectively (p=0.30 for trend). However, in absolute terms, treating 1000 patients in each group with blood pressure-lowering treatment for 5 years would prevent 14 (95% CI 8-21), 20 (8-31), 24 (8-40), and 38 (16-61) cardiovascular events, respectively (p=0.04 for trend). Interpretation Lowering blood pressure provides similar relative protection at all levels of baseline cardiovascular risk, but progressively greater absolute risk reductions as baseline risk increases. These results support the use of predicted baseline cardiovascular disease risk equations to inform blood pressure-lowering treatment decisions.
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| 8. |
- Sundström, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Blood Pressure Reduction in Mild Hypertension : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
- 2015
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Ingår i: Annals of Internal Medicine. - 0003-4819 .- 1539-3704. ; 162:3, s. 184-191
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Effects of blood pressure reduction in persons with grade 1 hypertension are unclear. Purpose: To investigate whether pharmacologic blood pressure reduction prevents cardiovascular events and deaths in persons with grade 1 hypertension. Data Sources: Trials included in the BPLTTC (Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration) and trials identified from a previous review and electronic database searches. Study Selection: Patients without cardiovascular disease with blood pressures in the grade 1 hypertension range (140 to 159/90 to 99 mm Hg) who were randomly assigned to an active (antihypertensive drug or more intensive regimen) or control (placebo or less intensive regimen) blood pressure-lowering regimen. Data Extraction: Individual-patient data from BPLTTC trials and aggregate data from other trials were extracted. Risk of bias was assessed for all trials. Data Synthesis: Individual-patient data involved 10 comparisons from trials where most patients had diabetes, and aggregate data involved 3 comparisons from trials of patients without diabetes. The average blood pressure reduction was about 3.6/2.4 mm Hg. Over 5 years, odds ratios were 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.01) for total cardiovascular events, 0.72 (CI, 0.55 to 0.94) for strokes, 0.91 (CI, 0.74 to 1.12) for coronary events, 0.80 (CI, 0.57 to 1.12) for heart failure, 0.75 (CI, 0.57 to 0.98) for cardiovascular deaths, and 0.78 (CI, 0.67 to 0.92) for total deaths. Results were similar in secondary analyses. Withdrawal from treatment due to adverse effects was more common in the active groups. Limitation: Blood pressure reductions and numbers of events were small. Conclusion: Blood pressure-lowering therapy is likely to prevent stroke and death in patients with uncomplicated grade 1 hypertension.
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| 9. |
- Wood, Angela M., et al.
(författare)
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Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption : combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10129, s. 1513-1523
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12.5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5.6 years [5th-95th percentile 1.04-13.5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5.4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1.14, 95% CI, 1.10-1.17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1.06, 1.00-1.11), heart failure (1.09, 1.03-1.15), fatal hypertensive disease (1.24, 1.15-1.33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1.15, 1.03-1.28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was loglinearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0.94, 0.91-0.97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-<= 100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-<= 200 g per week, >200-<= 350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.
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