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- Armandi, Angelo, et al.
(författare)
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Serum ferritin levels can predict long-term outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease
- 2024
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Ingår i: Gut. - : BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Hyperferritinaemia is associated with liver fibrosis severity in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), but the longitudinal implications have not been thoroughly investigated. We assessed the role of serum ferritin in predicting long-term outcomes or death. Design We evaluated the relationship between baseline serum ferritin and longitudinal events in a multicentre cohort of 1342 patients. Four survival models considering ferritin with confounders or non-invasive scoring systems were applied with repeated five-fold cross-validation schema. Prediction performance was evaluated in terms of Harrell's C-index and its improvement by including ferritin as a covariate. Results Median follow-up time was 96 months. Liver-related events occurred in 7.7%, hepatocellular carcinoma in 1.9%, cardiovascular events in 10.9%, extrahepatic cancers in 8.3% and all-cause mortality in 5.8%. Hyperferritinaemia was associated with a 50% increased risk of liver-related events and 27% of all-cause mortality. A stepwise increase in baseline ferritin thresholds was associated with a statistical increase in C-index, ranging between 0.02 (lasso-penalised Cox regression) and 0.03 (ridge-penalised Cox regression); the risk of developing liver-related events mainly increased from threshold 215.5 mu g/L (median HR=1.71 and C-index=0.71) and the risk of overall mortality from threshold 272 mu g/L (median HR=1.49 and C-index=0.70). The inclusion of serum ferritin thresholds (215.5 mu g/L and 272 mu g/L) in predictive models increased the performance of Fibrosis-4 and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score in the longitudinal risk assessment of liver-related events (C-indices>0.71) and overall mortality (C-indices>0.65). Conclusions This study supports the potential use of serum ferritin values for predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with MASLD.
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| 2. |
- Mozes, Ferenc E., et al.
(författare)
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Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : ELSEVIER INC. - 2468-1253. ; 8:8, s. 704-713
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. Methods This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score >= 15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs >= 20 kPa; FIB-4: <1<middle dot>3 vs 1<middle dot>3 to <= 2<middle dot>67 vs >2<middle dot>67; NFS: <-1<middle dot>455 vs -1<middle dot>455 to <= 0<middle dot>676 vs >0<middle dot>676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.Findings Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44<middle dot>7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46<middle dot>1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5<middle dot>8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0<middle dot>0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0<middle dot>72 (95% CI 0<middle dot>62-0<middle dot>81) for histology, 0<middle dot>76 (0<middle dot>70-0<middle dot>83) for LSM-VCTE, 0<middle dot>74 (0<middle dot>64-0<middle dot>82) for FIB-4, and 0<middle dot>70 (0<middle dot>63-0<middle dot>80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.Interpretation Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases.
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