| 1. |
- Carpenter, S. R., et al.
(författare)
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General resilience to cope with extreme events
- 2012
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 4:12, s. 3248-3259
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.
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| 2. |
- Arrow, K, et al.
(författare)
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Managing Ecosystem Resources
- 2000
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Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. ; 34, s. 1401-1406
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Ebersole, Charles R., et al.
(författare)
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Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability
- 2020
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Ingår i: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : Sage. - 2515-2467 .- 2515-2459. ; 3:3, s. 309-331
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3-9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276-3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (Delta r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00-.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19-.50).
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| 4. |
- Arrow, K., et al.
(författare)
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Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations
- 2013
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Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075. ; 341:6144, s. 349-350
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure
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| 5. |
- Arrow, K. J., et al.
(författare)
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Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. - : University of Chicago Press. - 1750-6816 .- 1750-6824. ; 8:2, s. 145-163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Should governments use a discount rate that declines over time when evaluating the future benefits and costs of public projects? The argument for using a declining discount rate (DDR) is simple: if the discount rates that will be applied in the future are uncertain but positively correlated, and if the analyst can assign probabilities to these discount rates, then the result will be a declining schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates. There is a growing empirical literature that estimates models of long-term interest rates and uses them to forecast the DDR schedule. However, this literature has been criticized because it lacks a connection to the theory of project evaluation. In benefit-cost analysis, the net benefits of a project in year t (in consumption units) are discounted to the present at the rate at which society would trade consumption in year t for consumption in the present. With simplifying assumptions, this leads to the Ramsey discounting formula, which results in a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate if the rate of growth in consumption is uncertain and if shocks to consumption are correlated over time. We conclude that the arguments in favor of a DDR are compelling and thus merit serious consideration by regulatory agencies in the United States.
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| 6. |
- Revesz, R L, et al.
(författare)
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The social cost of carbon: A global imperative
- 2017
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Ingår i: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. - : University of Chicago Press. - 1750-6824 .- 1750-6824 .- 1750-6816. ; 11:1, s. 172-173
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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