| 1. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Vedantham, H. K., et al.
(author)
-
Lunar occultation of the diffuse radio sky : LOFAR measurements between 35 and 80 MHz
- 2015
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 450, s. 2291-2305
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present radio observations of the Moon between 35 and 80 MHz to demonstrate a novel technique of interferometrically measuring large-scale diffuse emission extending far beyond the primary beam (global signal) for the first time. In particular, we show that (i) the Moon appears as a negative-flux source at frequencies 35 < ν < 80 MHz since it is ‘colder’ than the diffuse Galactic background it occults, (ii) using the (negative) flux of the lunar disc, we can reconstruct the spectrum of the diffuse Galactic emission with the lunar thermal emission as a reference, and (iii) that reflected RFI (radio-frequency interference) is concentrated at the centre of the lunar disc due to specular nature of reflection, and can be independently measured. Our RFI measurements show that (i) Moon-based Cosmic Dawn experiments must design for an Earth-isolation of better than 80 dB to achieve an RFI temperature <1 mK, (ii) Moon-reflected RFI contributes to a dipole temperature less than 20 mK for Earth-based Cosmic Dawn experiments, (iii) man-made satellite-reflected RFI temperature exceeds 20 mK if the aggregate scattering cross-section of visible satellites exceeds 175 m2 at 800 km height, or 15 m2 at 400 km height. Currently, our diffuse background spectrum is limited by sidelobe confusion on short baselines (10–15 per cent level). Further refinement of our technique may yield constraints on the redshifted global 21 cm signal from Cosmic Dawn (40 > z > 12) and the Epoch of Reionization (12 > z > 5).
|
|
| 4. |
- Camilo, F., et al.
(author)
-
Revival of the Magnetar PSR J1622-4950: Observations with MeerKAT, Parkes, XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR
- 2018
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 856:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- New radio (MeerKAT and Parkes) and X-ray (XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR) observations of PSR J1622-4950 indicate that the magnetar, in a quiescent state since at least early 2015, reactivated between 2017 March 19 and April 5. The radio flux density, while variable, is approximately 100 larger than during its dormant state. The X-ray flux one month after reactivation was at least 800 larger than during quiescence, and has been decaying exponentially on a 111 19 day timescale. This high-flux state, together with a radio-derived rotational ephemeris, enabled for the first time the detection of X-ray pulsations for this magnetar. At 5%, the 0.3-6 keV pulsed fraction is comparable to the smallest observed for magnetars. The overall pulsar geometry inferred from polarized radio emission appears to be broadly consistent with that determined 6-8 years earlier. However, rotating vector model fits suggest that we are now seeing radio emission from a different location in the magnetosphere than previously. This indicates a novel way in which radio emission from magnetars can differ from that of ordinary pulsars. The torque on the neutron star is varying rapidly and unsteadily, as is common for magnetars following outburst, having changed by a factor of 7 within six months of reactivation.
|
|
| 5. |
- Jelic, V., et al.
(author)
-
Initial LOFAR observations of epoch of reionization windows II. Diffuse polarized emission in the ELAIS-N1 field
- 2014
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 568, s. A101-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims. This study aims to characterise the polarized foreground emission in the ELAIS-N1 field and to address its possible implications or extracting of the cosmological 21 cm signal from the LOw-Frequency ARray - Epoch of Reionization (LOFAR-EoR) data Methods. We used the high band antennas of LOFAR to image this region and RM-synthesis to unravel structures of polarized emission at high Galactic latitudes. Results. The brightness temperature of the detected Galactic emission is on average similar to 4 K in polarized intensity and covers the range from -10 to +13 rad m(-2) in Faraday depth, The total polarized intensity and polarization angle show a wide range of morphological features. We have also used the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) at 350 MHz to image the same region. The LOFAR and WSRT images show a similar complex morphology at comparable brightness levels, but their spatial correlation is very low. The fractional polarization at 150 MHz, expressed as a percentage of the total intensity, amounts to approximate to 1.5%. There is no indication of diffuse emission in total intensity in the interferometric data. in line with results at higher frequencies Conclusions. The wide frequency range. high angular resolution, and high sensitivity make LOFAR an exquisite instrument for studying Galactic polarized emission at a resolution of similar to 1-2 rad m(-2) in Faraday depth. The different polarized patterns observed at 150 MHz and 350 MHz are consistent with different source distributions along the line of sight wring in a variety of Faraday thin regions of emission. The presence of polarized foregrounds is a serious complication for epoch of reionization experiments. To avoid the leakage of polarized emission into total intensity, which can depend on frequency, we need to calibrate the instrumental polarization across the field of view to a small fraction of 1%.
|
|
| 6. |
- Ciardi, B., et al.
(author)
-
Simulating the 21 cm forest detectable with LOFAR and SKA in the spectra of high-z GRBs
- 2015
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 453:1, s. 101-105
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate the feasibility of detecting 21 cm absorption features in the afterglow spectra of high redshift long Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs). This is done employing simulations of cosmic reionization, together with estimates of the GRB radio afterglow flux and the instrumental characteristics of the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR). We find that absorption features could be marginally (with a S/N larger than a few) detected by LOFAR at z greater than or similar to 7 if the GRB is a highly energetic event originating from Pop III stars, while the detection would be easier if the noise were reduced by one order of magnitude, i.e. similar to what is expected for the first phase of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1-low). On the other hand, more standard GRBs are too dim to be detected even with ten times the sensitivity of SKA1-low, and only in the most optimistic case can a S/N larger than a few be reached at z greater than or similar to 9.
|
|
| 7. |
- Feigin, VL, et al.
(author)
-
Update on the Global Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study
- 2015
-
In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0208 .- 0251-5350. ; 45:3, s. 161-176
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- <b><i>Background:</i></b> Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. <b><i>Objectives:</i></b> This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. <b><i>Methodology:</i></b> Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). <b><i>Results:</i></b> In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority.
|
|
| 8. |
- Asad, K. M. B., et al.
(author)
-
Polarization leakage in epoch of reionization windows - I. Low Frequency Array observations of the 3C196 field
- 2015
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 451:4, s. 3709-3727
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Detection of the 21-cm signal coming from the epoch of reionization (EoR) is challenging especially because, even after removing the foregrounds, the residual Stokes I maps contain leakage from polarized emission that can mimic the signal. Here, we discuss the instrumental polarization of Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) and present realistic simulations of the leakages between Stokes parameters. From the LOFAR observations of polarized emission in the 3C196 field, we have quantified the level of polarization leakage caused by the nominal model beam of LOFAR, and compared it with the EoR signal using power spectrum analysis. We found that at 134-166 MHz, within the central 4A degrees of the field the (Q, U) -> I leakage power is lower than the EoR signal at k < 0.3 Mpc(-1). The leakage was found to be localized around a Faraday depth of 0, and the rms of the leakage as a fraction of the rms of the polarized emission was shown to vary between 0.2 and 0.3 per cent, both of which could be utilized in the removal of leakage. Moreover, we could define an 'EoR window' in terms of the polarization leakage in the cylindrical power spectrum above the point spread function (PSF)-induced wedge and below k(ayen) similar to 0.5 Mpc(-1), and the window extended up to k(ayen) similar to 1 Mpc(-1) at all k(aSyen) when 70 per cent of the leakage had been removed. These LOFAR results show that even a modest polarimetric calibration over a field of view of a parts per thousand(2) 4A degrees in the future arrays like Square Kilometre Array will ensure that the polarization leakage remains well below the expected EoR signal at the scales of 0.02-1 Mpc(-1).
|
|
| 9. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
|
|
| 10. |
- Jelić, V., et al.
(author)
-
Linear polarization structures in LOFAR observations of the interstellar medium in the 3C 196 field
- 2015
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 583
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: This study aims to characterize linear polarization structures in LOFAR observations of the interstellar medium (ISM) in the 3C 196 field, one of the primary fields of the LOFAR-Epoch of Reionization key science project.Methods: We have used the high band antennas (HBA) of LOFAR to image this region and rotation measure (RM) synthesis to unravel the distribution of polarized structures in Faraday depth.Results: The brightness temperature of the detected Galactic emission is 5-15 K in polarized intensity and covers the range from -3 to +8 rad m(-2) in Faraday depth. The most interesting morphological feature is a strikingly straight filament at a Faraday depth of +0.5 rad m(-2) running from north to south, right through the centre of the field and parallel to the Galactic plane. There is also an interesting system of linear depolarization canals conspicuous in an image showing the peaks of Faraday spectra. We used the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) at 350 MHz to image the same region. For the first time, we see some common morphology in the RM cubes made at 150 and 350 MHz. There is no indication of diffuse emission in total intensity in the interferometric data, in line with results at higher frequencies and previous LOFAR observations. Based on our results, we determined physical parameters of the ISM and proposed a simple model that may explain the observed distribution of the intervening magneto-ionic medium.Conclusions: The mean line-of-sight magnetic field component, B-parallel to, is determined to be 0.3 +/- 0.1 mu G and its spatial variation across the 3C 196 field is 0.1 mu G. The filamentary structure is probably an ionized filament in the ISM, located somewhere within the Local Bubble. This filamentary structure shows an excess in thermal electron density (n(e)B(parallel to) > 6.2 cm(-3) mu G) compared to its surroundings.
|
|
