| 1. |
- Ahlgren, Erik, 1962, et al.
(författare)
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Transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling – a review of comprehensive energy systems assessment approaches
- 2017
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Ingår i: GCB Bioenergy. - : Wiley. - 1757-1707 .- 1757-1693. ; 9, s. 1168–1180-
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased the interest in alternative nonfossil fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of nonfossil energy in the transport sector increase energy–transport interactions and system effects over sector boundaries. While the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches and assessments of energy–transport interactions now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of global energy–economy future studies based on systems modelling treating the transport sector as an integral part of the overall energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. To clarify similarities and differences in approaches and results, the present work reviews studies on transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling and investigates what future role comprehensive global energy–economy modelling studies portray for transport biofuels in terms of their potential and competitiveness. The results vary widely between the studies, but the resulting transport biofuel market shares are mainly below 40% during the entire time periods analysed. Some of the reviewed studies show higher transport biofuel market shares in the medium (15–30 years) than in the long term (above 30 years), and, in the long-term models, at the end of the modelling horizon, transport biofuels are often substituted by electric and hydrogen cars.
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| 2. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Bioenergy futures in Sweden - Modeling integration scenarios for biofuel production
- 2016
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 109, s. 1026-1039
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Use of bioenergy can contribute to greenhouse gas emission reductions and increased energy security. However, even though biomass is a renewable resource, the potential is limited, and efficient use of available biomass resources will become increasingly important. This paper aims to explore system interactions related to future bioenergy utilization and cost-efficient bioenergy technology choices under stringent CO2 constraints. In particular, the study investigates system effects linked to integration of advanced biofuel production with district heating and industry under different developments in the electricity sector and biomass supply system. The study is based on analysis with the MARKAL_Sweden model, which is a bottom-up, cost-optimization model covering the Swedish energy system. A time horizon to 2050 is applied. The results suggest that system integration of biofuel production has noteworthy effects on the overall system level, improves system cost-efficiency and influences parameters such as biomass price, marginal CO2 emission reduction costs and cost-efficient biofuel choices in the transport sector. In the long run and under stringent CO2 constraints, system integration of biofuel production has, however, low impact on total bioenergy use, which is largely decided by supply-related constraints, and on total transport biofuel use, which to large extent is driven by demand.
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| 3. |
- Ahlgren, Erik, 1962, et al.
(författare)
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Biokombi Rya - slutrapporter från ingående delprojekt
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Inom projektet Biokombi Rya har ett flertal olika forskargrupper samarbetat för att studera system¬effekterna av förgasning av biobränsle ur olika aspekter. Syftet med projektet är att öka kunskapen om biobränsleförgasning i Sverige samt att utreda förutsättningar för att sådana anläggningar ska vara ekonomiskt och miljömässigt intressanta. En referensgrupp har varit kopplad till projektet där förutsättningar, resultat och slutsatser har behandlats.I denna underlagsrapport har slutrapporterna från projektets delprojekt samlats. De beskriver förutsättningar, metodansatser, använda data och resultat utförligt och utgör på så sätt ett viktigt komplement till den mer övergripande beskrivningen i projektets syntesrapport. De delrapporter som ingår har valts för att täcka in samtliga delar av projektet som är av allmänt intresse. Projektresultat som publicerats på annat sätt berörs dock mer kortfattat.Projektet Biokombi Rya har pågått under två år (2005-2006) och drivits av Chalmers EnergiCentrum. Förutom de omfattande analysinsatser som författarna till denna rapport står för, har Avdelningen för kemisk teknologi vid KTH, Siemens Industrial Turbines AB och Göteborg Energi AB bidragit med expertstöd. CIT Industriell Energianalys, med undertecknad som projektledare, har stått för projektledning och koordination.Projektet har finansierats av Energimyndigheten, Göteborg Energis forsknings¬stiftelse samt Göteborg Energi AB.
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| 4. |
- Ahlgren, Erik, 1962, et al.
(författare)
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Global transport biofuel futures in energy-economy modeling: a review
- 2015
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Ingår i: E-book: Proceedings of the conference “sustainable futures in a changing climate”. - 9789522493033 ; , s. 119-130
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased interest in alternative fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of alternative energy in the transport sector increase system effects over sector boundaries, and while the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of energy-economic future studies based on systems modeling treating the transport sector as an integrated part of the energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. To clarify similarities and differences in approaches and results, the present work reviews studies within this field and investigates what future role comprehensive energy-economy modeling studies portray for transport biofuels in terms of their potential and competitiveness.
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| 5. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of transport fuel taxation strategies through integration of road transport in an energy system model — the case of Sweden
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Energy Research. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1099-114X .- 0363-907X. ; 36:5, s. 648-669
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Road transport is responsible for a large and growing share of CO2 emissions in most countries. A number of new fuel-efficient vehicle technologies and renewable transport fuels are possible alternatives to conventional options but their deployment relies strongly on different policy measures. Even though a future higher use of transport biofuels and electric vehicles is likely to increase the interaction between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system (heat, power, etc.), these systems are often analysed separately. In this study, a transport module is developed and integrated into the MARKAL_Nordic energy system model. The transport module describes a range of vehicle technologies and fuel options as well as different paths for conversion of primary energy resources into transport fuels. The integrated model is utilized to analyse the impact of transport fuel tax designs on future cost-effective fuel and technology choices in the Swedish transportation sector, as well as the consequences of these choices on system costs and CO2 emissions. The model, which is driven by cost-minimization, is run to 2050 with various assumptions regarding transport fuel tax levels and tax schemes. The results stress the importance of fuel taxes to accelerate the introduction of fuel-efficient vehicle technologies such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Tax exemptions can make biofuels an economically favourable choice for vehicle users. However, due to limitations in biomass supply, a too strong policy-focus on transport biofuels can lead to high system costs in relation to the CO2 abatement achieved. The modelling performed indicates that the effects caused by linkages between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system can be significant and integrated approaches are thus highly relevant.
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| 6. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Bioenergy futures in Sweden - system effects of CO2 reduction and fossil fuel phase-out policies
- 2015
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Ingår i: GCB Bioenergy. - : Wiley. - 1757-1707 .- 1757-1693. ; 7:5, s. 1118-1135
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Bioenergy could contribute both to the reduction of greenhouse gases and to increased energy security, but the extent of this contribution strongly depends on the cost and potential of biomass resources. For Sweden, this study investigates how the implementation of policies for CO2 reduction and for phase out of fossil fuels in road transport affect the future utilization of biomass, in the stationary energy system and in the transport sector, and its price. The analysis is based on the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which includes a comprehensive representation of the national energy system. For the analysis, the biomass supply representation of MARKAL_Sweden is updated and improved by the use of, e.g., forestry forecasting modeling and through construction of detailed biomass supply curves. A time horizon up to 2050 is applied. The results indicate a potential for significantly higher use of bioenergy. In the main analysis scenario, in which CO2 reduction of 80% by 2050 is imposed on the Swedish energy system, the total bioenergy utilization increases by 63% by 2050 compared to 2010. The largest increase occurs in the transport sector, which by 2050 accounts for 43% of the total primary bioenergy use. The high demand and strong competition significantly increase biomass prices and lead to the utilization of higher cost biomass sources such as stumps and cultivated energy forest, as well as use of pulpwood resources for energy purposes.
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| 7. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Biofuel futures in road transport - A modeling analysis for Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 1361-9209 .- 1879-2340. ; 32, s. 239-252
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- First and second generation biofuels are among few low-carbon alternatives for road transport that currently are commercially available or in an early commercialization phase. They are thus potential options for meeting climate targets in the medium term. For the case of Sweden, we investigate cost-efficient use of biofuels in road transport under system-wide CO2 reduction targets to 2050, and the effects of implementation of targets for an almost fossil-free road transport sector to 2030. We apply the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which covers the entire Swedish energy system including the transport sector. For CO2 reductions of 80% to 2050 in the Swedish energy system as a whole, the results of the main scenario show an annual growth rate for road transport biofuels of about 6% from 2010 to 2050, with biofuels accounting for 78% of road transport final energy use in 2050. The preferred biofuel choices are methanol and biomethane. When introducing additional fossil fuel phase-out policies in road transport (-80% to 2030), a doubling of the growth rate to 2030 is required and system CO2 abatement costs increases by 6% for the main scenario. Results imply that second generation biofuels, along with energy-efficient vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids, can be an important part of optimized system solutions meeting stringent medium-term climate targets.
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| 8. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Biomass CHP Energy Systems: A Critical Assessment
- 2012
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Ingår i: Sayigh A (ed.), Comprehensive Renewable Energy, Vol 5, Elsevier. - 9780080878737 ; , s. 87-97
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Combined heat and power (CHP) generation is generally considered a measure to increase the overall efficiency of energy systems. Biomass-fueled CHP represents thus an alternative for the combination of an efficient energy technology and a renewable, climate-neutral fuel. Even though biomass CHP presents several advantages, the deployment is linked to a number of complex issues. Often the involved complexities are not connected to the technology as such, but rather to system issues regarding how to view, and what to assume, about the technology’s system surrounding. The system boundaries can be very broad because of the versatility of biomass, its many end uses, and the wide range of possible displacement effects. In this chapter, system aspects of biomass energy systems including CHP are analyzed and discussed.
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| 9. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Biomass gasification in cost-optimized district heating systems — A regional modelling analysis
- 2010
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 38:1, s. 168-180
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) plants could, in combined heat and power (CHP) generation, increase the power-to-heat ratio compared to conventional biomass steam turbine plants. Furthermore, biomass gasification could also be used for the efficient production of biofuels for transport. In this study, different applications of biomass gasification in connection to district heating (DH) are analysed and contrasted to conventional technology options. An application of the cost-optimizing energy system model MARKAL with a detailed description of the DH sector in a southwestern region of Sweden was developed within the study and used in the analysis. Policy measures for CO2 reduction and for promotion of “green” electricity are assumed, and required subsidy levels for large-scale production of transport biofuels are calculated. The model also operates with different supplies of biomass: a local supply at a lower cost and an international supply of refined biomass at a slightly higher cost. The study shows that investments in BIGCC CHP are often cost-efficient in cases with low ambitions regarding transport biofuels. However, due to limitations in heat demand and in local, lower cost, supply of biomass, investment in biofuel production means less investment in BIGCC CHP and, thereby, a smaller electricity production.
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| 10. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective biogas utilisation – A modelling assessment of gas infrastructural options in a regional energy system
- 2012
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 48:1, s. 212-226
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The current utilisation of biogas from anaerobic digestion is low compared to the technical potential. This study investigates requirements for policy support to overcome techno-economic barriers of biogas utilisation and effects of different biogas distribution strategies. Two potential sectors for biogas use are covered: the transport sector and the district heating sector. A quantitative, optimising, energy system modelling approach is applied and the region of Västra Götaland, Sweden, is studied. The model has a high geographical resolution and locations of both biogas feedstock and potential markets are taken into account. The results show that a small part of the technical biogas potential can be cost-effectively utilised without biogas subsidies or larger infrastructural investments. Comparably low subsidies give significant increases in cost-effective biogas utilisation levels, but utilisation close to the full technical potential is linked to high subsidies. From a techno-economic perspective, biogas is best used as vehicle gas. Since local vehicle gas markets are limited, enhanced biogas distribution conditions not only imply larger total cost-effective biogas utilisation, but also a larger share of biogas as vehicle gas. Compared to distribution strategies based on truck transports and regional biogas grids, an expanded natural gas grid presents possibilities but also risks.
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