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- Eriksson, Ola, et al.
(författare)
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Implications of growth uncertainties associated with climate change for stand management
- 2012
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Ingår i: European Journal of Forest Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1612-4669 .- 1612-4677. ; 131, s. 1199-1209
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on many aspects of forest ecosystems, including timber production. Temperatures in northern Europe are expected to increase considerably, although there is substantial uncertainty about both the seasonal and average changes that will occur. In Scandinavia, production is predicted to increase across most of the area covered by boreal forest, since the growth of trees in the region is currently limited by temperature. Therefore, we have analyzed the importance of adapting management practices to future climate changes and considered possible ways to address associated stand management problems. For this purpose, we simulated climate scenarios with temperature increases ranging from 2.5 to 6.0A degrees C over a 100-year period, and effects on typical Swedish stands with several species, then optimized their management with simulated annealing. The results indicate that the maximum considered temperature trend would raise the economic value of the stands by almost 5% more than the minimum trend. However, the importance of optimizing management plans in accordance with the correct temperature scenario appears to be limited. The plan optimized for the minimum temperature trend was only marginally inferior to the plan optimized for the maximum temperature trend in the maximum trend scenario, and vice versa. It also seemed adequate to use a deterministic formulation of the problem, and in cases where a stochastic climate change model generated more robust plans, the advantage could be attributed to model artifacts rather than climate change per se.
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- Hermansson, Sven, et al.
(författare)
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Testbädd Mellanskalig Biorbränsleförbränning - en förstudie
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Conversion of biomass to heat and power plays an important role in the transition of the Swedish energy system from fossil based to renewables. For manufacturers and users of medium scale combustion plants (0.5 – approx. 15 MWth), a spectrum of challenges are accounted with both today’s and future flexible use of modern biomass fuels. Such challenges are e.g. fuel handling and processing together with combustion instabilities caused by new fuels with resulting ware-and-tear and elevated emission levels. However, the possibilities to test and try out new innovations is very limited, which is why a Test Bed has the potential to significantly contribute to the innovation growth within the sector. The purpose of this feasibility study therefore to investigate the prerequisites for the establishment of a Test Bed for Medium Scale Biomass Combustion. The fundament of the feasibility study is a survey of the existing infrastructure for testing and innovation development of medium scale biomass combustion, which could be further developed and interconnected. Furthermore, a broad inquiry has been performed among market actors, focusing on the present and future need together with existing conditions for taking part in the development of a test bed. These first two steps has then been synthesized into recommendations on how a test bed should be developed and exploited by relevant actors. The major conclusions and recommendations of the feasibility study are: A cost efficient and innovative Test Bed system for medium scale biomass combustion could be developed by enhanced cooperation between passive test-bed like plants and systems, industrial testing plants and research activities, Development of a test bed system is hindered by the fact that there is no clear receiver of such system on the market. Stake holder cooperation is today weak, which makes common investments and financing impossible There is no economic support for the erection of new, dedicated test bed facilities for medium scale biomass combustion, Pre-treatment of biomass raw material with the purpose of enhancing fuel quality simultaneously refining products from the biomass has been found to show good potential for further development of test beds. This study therefore recommends that such investigation should be taken under consideration.
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