| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Anastasopoulou, Stavroula, et al.
(författare)
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Acute central nervous system toxicity during treatment of pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia : phenotypes, risk factors and genotypes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Haematologica. - : Ferrata Storti Foundation. - 0390-6078 .- 1592-8721. ; 107:10, s. 2318-2328
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Central nervous system (CNS) toxicity is common at diagnosis and during treatment of pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We studied CNS toxicity in 1,464 children aged 1.0-17.9 years, diagnosed with ALL and treated according to the Nordic Society of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology ALL2008 protocol. Genome-wide association studies, and a candidate single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP; n=19) study were performed in 1,166 patients. Findings were validated in an independent Australian cohort of children with ALL (n=797) in whom two phenotypes were evaluated: diverse CNS toxicities (n=103) and methotrexate-related CNS toxicity (n=48). In total, 135/1,464 (9.2%) patients experienced CNS toxicity for a cumulative incidence of 8.7% (95% confidence interval: 7.31-10.20) at 12 months from diagnosis. Patients aged >= 10 years had a higher risk of CNS toxicity than had younger patients (16.3% vs. 7.4%; P < 0.001). The most common CNS toxicities were posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (n=52, 43 with seizures), sinus venous thrombosis (n=28, 9 with seizures), and isolated seizures (n=16). The most significant SNP identified by the genome-wide association studies did not reach genomic significance (lowest P-value: 1.11x10(-6)), but several were annotated in genes regulating neuronal functions. In candidate SNP analysis, ATXN1 rs68082256, related to epilepsy, was associated with seizures in patients < 10 years (P=0.01). ATXN1 rs68082256 was validated in the Australian cohort with diverse CNS toxicities (P=0.04). The role of ATXN1 as well as the novel SNP in neurotoxicity in pediatric ALL should be further explored.
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| 3. |
- Anastasopoulou, Stavroula, et al.
(författare)
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Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia : Clinical characteristics, risk factors, course, and outcome of disease
- 2019
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Ingår i: Pediatric Blood & Cancer. - : WILEY. - 1545-5009 .- 1545-5017. ; 66:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a distinct entity with incompletely known predisposing factors. The aim of this study is to describe the incidence, risk factors, clinical course, and outcome of PRES in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL).Procedure: Patients aged 1.0 to 17.9 years diagnosed with ALL from July 2008 to December 2015 and treated according to the Nordic Society of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology (NOPHO) ALL2008 protocol were included. Patients with PRES were identified in the prospective NOPHO leukemia toxicity registry, and clinical data were collected from the medical records.Results: The study group included 1378 patients, of whom 52 met the criteria for PRES. The cumulative incidence of PRES at one month was 1.7% (95% CI, 1.1-2.5) and at one year 3.7% (95% CI, 2.9-4.9). Older age (hazard ratios [HR] for each one-year increase in age 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0-1.2, P = 0.001) and T-cell immunophenotype (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.6-5.3, P = 0.0005) were associated with PRES. Central nervous system (CNS) involvement (odds ratios [OR] = 2.8; 95% CI, 1.2-6.5, P = 0.015) was associated with early PRES and high-risk block treatment (HR = 2.63; 95% CI, 1.1-6.4, P = 0.033) with late PRES. At follow-up of the PRES patients, seven patients had epilepsy and seven had neurocognitive difficulties.Conclusion: PRES is a neurotoxicity in the treatment of childhood ALL with both acute and long-term morbidity. Older age, T-cell leukemia, CNS involvement and high-risk block treatment are risk factors for PRES.
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| 4. |
- Anastasopoulou, Stavroula, et al.
(författare)
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Seizures during treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia : A population-based cohort study
- 2020
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Ingår i: European journal of paediatric neurology. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 1090-3798 .- 1532-2130. ; 27, s. 72-77
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Seizures are common in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). As ALL survival rates are improving, the challenge to minimize treatment related side effects and late sequelae rises. Here, we studied the frequency, timing, etiology and risk factors of seizures in ALL patients. Methods: The study included children aged 1-17.9 years at diagnosis of B-cell-precursor and T cell ALL who were treated according to the Nordic Society of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology (NOPHO) ALL2008 protocol between 2008 and 2015. Detailed patient data were acquired from the NOPHO ALL2008 registry and by review of medical records. Results: Seizures occurred in 81/1464 (5.5%) patients. The cumulative incidence of seizures at one months was 1.7% (95% CI: 1.2-2.5) and at one year 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.5%). Patients aged 10-17.9 years, those with T cell immunophenotype, CNS involvement, or high-risk induction with dexamethasone had higher risk for seizures in univariable analyses. Only age remained a risk factor in multivariable analyses (the cumulative incidence of seizures for patients 10-17.9 years old at one year was 9.0% (95% CI: 6.2-12.9)). Of the 81 patients with seizures, 43 had posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES), 15 had isolated seizures, nine had sinus venous thrombosis (SVT), three had stroke-like syndrome, and 11 had other neurotoxicities. Epilepsy diagnosis was reported in totally 11 ALL survivors at last follow up. Conclusion: Seizures are relatively common in ALL patients and occur most often in patients with PRES, SVT, or as an isolated symptom. Older children have higher risk of seizures. (C) 2020 European Paediatric Neurology Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 5. |
- Banerjee, Joanna, et al.
(författare)
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The spectrum of acute central nervous system symptoms during the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia
- 2020
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Ingår i: Pediatric Blood & Cancer. - : WILEY. - 1545-5009 .- 1545-5017. ; 67:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Children with central nervous system (CNS) toxicity during therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) are at risk for treatment modifications, long-term sequelae and even higher mortality. A better understanding of CNS symptoms and their complications improves the potential to prevent and treat them.Methods: Patient files from 649 children treated with Nordic Society of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology ALL92 and ALL2000 protocols in Finland were reviewed retrospectively for any acute CNS symptom. Detailed data on symptoms, examinations and treatment of the underlying CNS complications were collected from the medical records. Disease-related and outcome data were retrieved from the Nordic leukaemia registry.Results: Altogether, 13% (86) of patients with ALL had acute CNS symptoms. Most symptoms (64%) occurred during the first 2 months of therapy. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome was the most frequent complication (4.5%). Cerebrovascular events were diagnosed in 10 cases (1.6%), while methotrexate-related stroke-like syndrome (SLS) was observed in only one patient (0.2%). CNS symptoms due to systemic or unclear conditions, especially sepsis, were important for differential diagnosis. CNS leukaemia was associated with CNS symptoms (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.03; P = .003), and epilepsy was a common sequel of CNS complications (19%).Conclusions: Acute CNS symptoms are common during ALL therapy, occurring mainly during the first 2 months of treatment. Patients with CNS leukaemia at diagnosis are at a higher risk for CNS toxicity. Despite intensive CNS-directed methotrexate treatment, SLS was diagnosed extremely rarely in our series.
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| 6. |
- Egnell, Christina, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of body mass index on relapse in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to Nordic treatment protocols
- 2020
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Ingår i: European Journal of Haematology. - : WILEY. - 0902-4441 .- 1600-0609. ; 105:6, s. 797-807
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives High body mass index (BMI) is associated with poorer survival in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), but the actual impact on the risk of relapse still needs to be clarified. We evaluated the impact of BMI at diagnosis on the risk of relapse in children with ALL treated according to Nordic Society of Paediatric Haematology and Oncology (NOPHO) protocols. Method In a multicenter study, we collected data on BMI at diagnosis and outcome of 2558 children aged 2.0-17.9 years diagnosed between 1992 and 2016. Patients were divided into four groups according to International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) childhood BMI cut-offs: underweight, <17; healthy weight, 17-25; overweight, 25-30; and obese, >= 30 kg/m(2). Results In Cox multivariate regression analyses, an increased risk of relapse was observed in children aged 10-17.9 years with unhealthy BMI at diagnosis (underweight hazard ratio HR: 2.90 [95% confidence interval: 1.24-6.78],P = .01; overweight, HR: 1.95 [1.11-3.43],P = .02, and obese HR: 4.32 [95% 2.08-8.97],P < .001), compared to children with healthy weight. BMI had no impact on relapse in children under 10 years of age. Conclusion High BMI, and especially obesity at diagnosis, is an independent adverse prognostic factor for relapse in older children with ALL.
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| 7. |
- Fisher, Michael J., et al.
(författare)
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Integrated molecular and clinical analysis of low-grade gliomas in children with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Acta Neuropathologica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0001-6322 .- 1432-0533. ; 141:4, s. 605-617
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Low-grade gliomas (LGGs) are the most common childhood brain tumor in the general population and in individuals with the Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) cancer predisposition syndrome. Surgical biopsy is rarely performed prior to treatment in the setting of NF1, resulting in a paucity of tumor genomic information. To define the molecular landscape of NF1-associated LGGs (NF1-LGG), we integrated clinical data, histological diagnoses, and multi-level genetic/genomic analyses on 70 individuals from 25 centers worldwide. Whereas, most tumors harbored bi-allelic NF1 inactivation as the only genetic abnormality, 11% had additional mutations. Moreover, tumors classified as non-pilocytic astrocytoma based on DNA methylation analysis were significantly more likely to harbor these additional mutations. The most common secondary alteration was FGFR1 mutation, which conferred an additional growth advantage in multiple complementary experimental murine Nf1 models. Taken together, this comprehensive characterization has important implications for the management of children with NF1-LGG, distinct from their sporadic counterparts.
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| 8. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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