| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Andersson Sundén, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Citizen Science and Radioactivity
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nuclear Physics News. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1050-6896 .- 1061-9127 .- 1931-7336. ; 29:2, s. 25-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 4. |
- Barker, Abigail, et al.
(författare)
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A 5 million year record of compositional variations in mantle sources to magmatism on Santiago, southern Cape Verde archipelago
- 2010
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Ingår i: Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0010-7999 .- 1432-0967. ; 160:1, s. 133-154
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-precision Pb isotope data and Sr–Nd–Hf isotope data are presented together with major and trace element data for samples spanning the 4.6 Ma history of volcanism at Santiago, in the southern Cape Verde islands. Pb isotope data confirm the positive Δ8/4 signature of the southern islands indicating that the north–south compositional heterogeneity in the Cape Verde archipelago has persisted for at least 4.6 Ma. The Santiago volcanics show distinct compositional differences between the old, intermediate and young volcanics, and suggest greater involvement of an enriched mantle (EM1)-like source over time. Isotopic variations in the Santiago volcanics indicate convergence towards a homogeneous EM1-like end-member and distinct temporal variations in the FOZO-like end-member. Santiago and Santo Antão (a northern island, Holm et al. 2006), show a simultaneous decrease in 208Pb/204Pb of the high 206Pb/204Pb FOZO-like source with time. Such systematic archipelago-wide variations in the FOZO-like component suggest that this component is more likely to be present as a coherent package of recycled ocean crust rather than as multiple small heterogeneities dispersed in the upwelling mantle. The temporal variations in 208Pb/204Pb reflect minor lateral variations in Th/U of this recycled ocean crust package entering the melting zone beneath the islands. The location of the EM1-like component is more equivocal. A shallow lithospheric location is possible, but this would require a coincidence between spatial compositional variations in the lithosphere (EM1 is spatially restricted to the southern islands) and flow lines in the upwelling mantle revealed by seismic anisotropy. Therefore, we favour a deeper asthenospheric mantle source for the EM1-like source.
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| 5. |
- Barker, Abigail, et al.
(författare)
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Direct observation of a fossil high-temperature, fault-hosted, hydrothermal upflow zone in crust formed at the East Pacific Rise
- 2010
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Ingår i: Geology. - 0091-7613 .- 1943-2682. ; 38:4, s. 379-382
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fault zones in the ocean crust are commonly hypothesized to act as high-permeability conduits that focus fluid flow in oceanic hydrothermal systems. However, there has been little direct study of faults in crust formed at fast-spreading ridges. Here we describe the geology and geochemistry of an ∼40-m-wide fault zone within the uppermost sheeted dike complex exposed at Pito Deep (northeastern Easter microplate). Titanium in quartz thermometry gives temperatures of 392 ± 33 °C for quartz precipitation, indicating that this fault zone focused upwelling fluids at temperatures similar to those of black-smoker vent fluids. Correlated enrichment in 87Sr/86Sr and MgO in fault breccias, along with 87Sr/86Sr ratios higher than in average vent fluids, provide evidence for mixing between high-temperature upwelling fluids and a seawater-like fluid within the fault zone. Large high-temperature fluid fluxes are required to maintain high temperatures during mixing. If this fault zone is representative of upflow zones beneath hydrothermal vents on the East Pacific Rise, then it is possible that vent fluids evolve thermally and chemically during their ascent and may not record the precise conditions at the base of the hydrothermal system.
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| 6. |
- Barker, Abigail, et al.
(författare)
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Disequilibrium in historic volcanic rocks from Fogo, Cape Verde traces carbonatite metasomatism of recycled ocean crust
- 2023
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Ingår i: Lithos. - : Elsevier. - 0024-4937 .- 1872-6143. ; , s. 107328-107328
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fogo, Cape Verde, located upon thick oceanic lithosphere, provides a window into processes occurring in the mantle where recycled ocean crust in an upwelling mantle plume interacts with ambient mantle. Our objective is to investigate the nature of the lithologies of the mantle sources involved in the petrogenesis of historic volcanic rocks from Fogo. We observe enclaves and mingling textures in the lavas combined with oxygen isotope disequilibrium between olivine and clinopyroxene phenocrysts. Olivine δ18O values display positive correlations with Zr/Hf and Zr/Y and a negative correlation with U/Th, whereas clinopyroxene δ 18O values correlate positively with Ba/Nb. Heterogeneity between crystal populations and within the groundmass indicates that multiple magma batches are mixed beneath Fogo. In terms of mantle endmembers and source lithologies, a HIMU endmember was generated by melting of carbonated eclogite as indicated by low δ 18O values, Zr/Hf, Ba/Nb and high U/Th ratios. In contrast, we show the EM1 endmember has high δ 18O, Zr/Hf, Ba/Nb and low U/Th ratios, derived from melting of variably carbonated peridotite. Additionally, Ba/Th ratio are high, indicating that carbonatite melts have contributed to alkaline magma compositions at Fogo.
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| 7. |
- Barker, Abigail, et al.
(författare)
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Geochemical Stratigraphy of Submarine Lavas (3–5 Ma) from the Flamengos Valley, Santiago, Southern Cape Verde Islands
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of Petrology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0022-3530 .- 1460-2415. ; 50:1, s. 169-193
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- New high-precision Pb–Sr–Nd isotope, major and traceelement and mineral chemistry data are presented for the submarinestage of ocean island volcanism on Santiago, one of the southernislands of the Cape Verde archipelago. Pillow basalts and hyaloclastitesin the Flamengos Valley are divided into three petrographicand compositional groups; the Flamengos Formation lavas (4·6Ma) dominate the sequence, with the younger Low Si and Coastalgroups (2·8 Ma) found near the shoreline. Olivine andclinopyroxene compositions and isotopic data for minerals andtheir host melts indicate disequilibrium between some crystalsand the melt. Intra-sample disequilibrium suggests homogenisationof liquids but eruption before complete equilibration betweencrystals and melt preserves the heterogeneity. Pressures ofcrystallization for clinopyroxene (0·4–1·1GPa) indicate stalling and crystallization of the magmas overa range of depths in the lithosphere. Major element compositionsindicate melting of a carbonated eclogite source. Sr–Nd–Pbisotope data suggest the involvement of FOZO-like and EM1-likecomponents in the mantle source, which are simultaneously availableat all depths in the melting column. The Flamengos Valley lavasdisplay large compositional variations, often between stratigraphicallyadjacent flows; these frequent abrupt changes of magma compositionsuggest stalling and crystallization of discrete magma batcheson transport through the lithosphere.
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| 8. |
- Barker, Abigail, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the behaviour of sulphur in mid-ocean ridge axial hydrothermal systems from the composition of the sheeted dyke complex at Pito Deep
- 2010
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Ingår i: Chemical Geology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0009-2541 .- 1872-6836. ; 275:1-2, s. 105-115
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The behaviour of seawater sulphate in hydrothermal systems at intermediate- to fast-spreading ridges is investigated using new analyses of the δ34S, sulphur concentration and Fe2O3/Fe2O3total, combined with existing 87Sr/86Sr, of sheeted dykes from the Pito Deep tectonic window. The Pito Deep sheeted dyke complex has a similar composition to the sheeted dykes drilled at ODP Hole 504B suggesting that the measured compositions are representative of sheeted dyke complexes at intermediate- to fast-spreading ridges. The dykes show only small increases in δ34S which, combined with the rock dominated δ34S of vent fluids, requires the majority of seawater sulphate to be precipitated as anhydrite before the fluid reacts with the sheeted dyke complex. This loss of sulphate from the fluid means that a much higher Fe2O3 in the sheeted dyke complex than in fresh MORB glasses cannot be explained by oxidation due to seawater sulphate reduction during fluid-rock reaction. Instead, oxidation probably occurs due to degassing of reduced species, largely H2, during dyke emplacement and solidification. A mass balance model that accounts for anhydrite precipitation and Sr partitioning into the anhydrite, as well as fitting the concentration and isotopic ratios of S and Sr in the sheeted dykes and vent fluids, suggests water/rock ratios of -1. For a 1km thick sheeted dyke complex this is equivalent to a fluid flux of ~3×106kgm-2, sufficient to remove ~60% of the latent heat of crystallization from the lower crust.
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| 9. |
- Barker, Abigail, et al.
(författare)
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Interaction of the rifting East Greenland margin with a zoned ancestral Iceland plume.
- 2006
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Ingår i: Geology. - 0091-7613 .- 1943-2682. ; 34:6, s. 481-484
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Neodymium and high-precision lead isotopic data are presented for Paleogene East Greenland flood basalts that erupted during an early phase of magmatic activity associated with the Iceland hotspot. The 6-km-thick volcanic sequence shows marked chemostratigraphic variations: lavas in the lower half of the sequence (Milne Land and Geikie Plateau Formations) have low 206Pb/204Pb values (17.8–18.4), abruptly changing to high 206Pb/ 204Pb values (18.8–19.3) in the overlying Rømer Fjord Formation, followed by intermediate 206Pb/204Pb values (18.6–18.8) in the uppermost Skrænterne Formation. These three isotopic groups of crustally uncontaminated lavas are broadly similar to spatially distinct isotopic domains found in present-day Iceland. The East Greenland data indicate that the same mantle domains present beneath Iceland today were present in the ancestral Iceland hotspot at 55 Ma, and were sequentially tapped during continental break-up as the spatially zoned mantle interacted with the rifting continental margin. The compositional domains within the Iceland hotspot appear to be long-lived features that, given estimates of Icelandic mantle-upwelling velocities, have vertical length-scales of at least ∼500 km.
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| 10. |
- Barker, Abigail K., et al.
(författare)
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Magmatic evolution of the Cadamosto Seamount, Cape Verde : Beyond the spatial extent of EM1
- 2012
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Ingår i: Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0010-7999 .- 1432-0967. ; 163:6, s. 949-965
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Cadamosto Seamount is an unusual volcanic centre from Cape Verde, characterised by dominantly evolved volcanics, in contrast to the typically mafic volcanic centres at Cape Verde that exhibit only minor volumes of evolved volcanics. The magmatic evolution of Cadamosto Seamount is investigated to quantify the role of magma-crust interaction and thus provide a perspective on evolved end-member volcanism of Cape Verde. The preservation of mantle source signatures by Nd-Pb isotopes despite extensive magmatic differentiation provides new insights into the spatial distribution of mantle heterogeneity in the Cape Verde archipelago. Magmatic differentiation from nephelinite to phonolite involves fractional crystallisation of clinopyroxene, titanite, apatite, biotite and feldspathoids, with extensive feldspathoid accumulation being recorded in some evolved samples. Clinopyroxene crystallisation pressures of 0.38-0.17 GPa for the nephelinites constrain this extensive fractional crystallisation to the oceanic lithosphere, where no crustal assimilants or rafts of subcontinental lithospheric mantle are available. In turn, magma-crust interaction has influenced the Sr, O and S isotopes of the groundmass and late crystallising feldspathoids, which formed at shallow crustal depths reflecting the availability of oceanic sediments and anhydrite precipitated in the ocean crust. The Nd-Pb isotopes have not been affected by these processes of magma-crust interaction and hence preserve the mantle source signature. The Cadamosto Seamount samples have high Pb-206/Pb-204 (> 19.5), high epsilon Nd (+6 to +7) and negative Delta 8/4Pb, showing affinity with the northern Cape Verde islands as opposed to the adjacent southern islands. Hence, the Cadamosto Seamount in the west is located spatially beyond the EM1-like component found further east. This heterogeneity is not encountered in the oceanic lithosphere beneath the Cadamosto Seamount despite greater extents of fractional crystallisation at oceanic lithospheric depths than the islands of Fogo and Santiago. Our data provide new evidence for the complex geometry of the chemically zoned Cape Verde mantle source.
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