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- Thomas, HS, et al.
(författare)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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- D H, Fleisher, et al.
(författare)
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Yield Response of an Ensemble of Potato Crop Models to Elevated CO2 in Continental Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Journal of Agronomy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1161-0301. ; 126
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A multi-model inter-comparison study was conducted to evaluate the performance of ten potato crop models to accurately predict potato yield in response to elevated CO2 (Ce) when calibrated with ambient CO2 data (Ca). Experimental data from seven open-top chambers (OTC) and free-air? CO2-enrichment (FACE) facilities across continental Europe were used. Model ensemble percent errors averaged over all datasets for simulated yields were 26.5 % for Ca and 27.2 % Ce data. Metrics such as Wilmott’s index of agreement (IA) and root mean square relative error (RMSRE) ranged broadly among individual models and locations, such that four of the ten models outperformed the median or mean of the ensemble for about half of the Ce datasets. These top performing models were representative of three different model structural groups, including radiation use efficiency, transpiration efficiency, or leaf-level based approaches. Relative response to an increase in CO2 was more accurately modeled than absolute yield responses when averaged across all locations, and within 3.3 kg ppm? 1 (or 5%) of observed values. Specific targets in the model structure needed for improvement were not identified due to large and inconsistent variation in the accuracy of yield predictions across locations. However, models with the lowest calibration errors tended to be top performers for Ce predictions as well. Such results suggest calibration is at least as important as model structure. Where possible, modelers using potato models to estimate Ce responses should use Ce calibration data to improve confidence in such predictions.
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- de la Barreda-Bautista, Betsabe, et al.
(författare)
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Towards a Monitoring Approach for Understanding Permafrost Degradation and Linked Subsidence in Arctic Peatlands
- 2022
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Ingår i: Remote Sensing. - : MDPI. - 2072-4292. ; 14:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Permafrost thaw resulting from climate warming is threatening to release carbon from high latitude peatlands. The aim of this research was to determine subsidence rates linked to permafrost thaw in sub-Arctic peatlands in Sweden using historical orthophotographic (orthophotos), Unoccupied Aerial Vehicle (UAV), and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data. The orthophotos showed that the permafrost palsa on the study sites have been contracting in their areal extent, with the greatest rates of loss between 2002 and 2008. The surface motion estimated from differential digital elevation models from the UAV data showed high levels of subsidence (maxi-mum of −25 cm between 2017 and 2020) around the edges of the raised palsa plateaus. The InSAR data analysis showed that raised palsa areas had the greatest subsidence rates, with maximum subsidence rates of 1.5 cm between 2017 and 2020; however, all wetland vegetation types showed sub-sidence. We suggest that the difference in spatial units associated with each sensor explains parts of the variation in the subsidence levels recorded. We conclude that InSAR was able to identify the areas most at risk of subsidence and that it can be used to investigate subsidence over large spatial extents, whereas UAV data can be used to better understand the dynamics of permafrost degradation at a local level. These findings underpin a monitoring approach for these peatlands.
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- Sjögersten, Sofie, et al.
(författare)
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Optical and radar Earth observation data for upscaling methane emissions linked to permafrost degradation in sub-Arctic peatlands in northern Sweden
- 2023
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 20:20, s. 4221-4239
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Permafrost thaw in Arctic regions is increasing methane (CH4) emissions into the atmosphere, but quantification of such emissions is difficult given the large and remote areas impacted. Hence, Earth observation (EO) data are critical for assessing permafrost thaw, associated ecosystem change and increased CH4 emissions. Often extrapolation from field measurements using EO is the approach employed. However, there are key challenges to consider. Landscape CH4 emissions result from a complex local-scale mixture of micro-topographies and vegetation types that support widely differing CH4 emissions, and it is difficult to detect the initial stages of permafrost degradation before vegetation transitions have occurred. This study considers the use of a combination of ultra-high-resolution unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) data and Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data to extrapolate field measurements of CH4 emissions from a set of vegetation types which capture the local variation in vegetation on degrading palsa wetlands. We show that the ultra-high-resolution UAV data can map spatial variation in vegetation relevant to variation in CH4 emissions and extrapolate these across the wider landscape. We further show how this can be integrated with Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. By way of a soft classification and simple correction of misclassification bias of a hard classification, the output vegetation mapping and subsequent extrapolation of CH4 emissions closely matched the results generated using the UAV data. Interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) assessment of subsidence together with the vegetation classification suggested that high subsidence rates of palsa wetland can be used to quantify areas at risk of increased CH4 emissions. The transition of a 50 ha area currently experiencing subsidence to fen vegetation is estimated to increase emissions from 116 kg CH4 per season to emissions as high as 6500 to 13 000 kg CH4 per season. The key outcome from this study is that a combination of high- and low-resolution EO data of different types provides the ability to estimate CH4 emissions from large geographies covered by a fine mixture of vegetation types which are vulnerable to transitioning to CH4 emitters in the near future. This points to an opportunity to measure and monitor CH4 emissions from the Arctic over space and time with confidence.
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| 8. |
- Valman, Samuel, et al.
(författare)
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InSAR-measured permafrost degradation of palsa peatlands in northern Sweden
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Cryosphere. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1994-0416 .- 1994-0424. ; 18:4, s. 1773-1790
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate warming is degrading palsa peatlands across the circumpolar permafrost region. Permafrost degradation may lead to ecosystem collapse and potentially strong climate feedbacks, as this ecosystem is an important carbon store and can transition to being a strong greenhouse gas emitter. Landscape-level measurement of permafrost degradation is needed to monitor this impact of warming. Surface subsidence is a useful metric of change in palsa degradation and can be monitored using interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) satellite technology. We combined InSAR data, processed using the ASPIS algorithm to monitor ground motion between 2017 and 2021, with airborne optical and lidar data to investigate the rate of subsidence across palsa peatlands in northern Sweden. We show that 55% of Sweden's eight largest palsa peatlands are currently subsiding, which can be attributed to the underlying permafrost landforms and their degradation. The most rapid degradation has occurred in the largest palsa complexes in the most northern part of the region of study, also corresponding to the areas with the highest percentage of palsa cover within the overall mapped wetland area. Further, higher degradation rates have been found in areas where winter precipitation has increased substantially. The roughness index calculated from a lidar-derived digital elevation model (DEM), used as a proxy for degradation, increases alongside subsidence rates and may be used as a complementary proxy for palsa degradation. We show that combining datasets captured using remote sensing enables regional-scale estimation of ongoing permafrost degradation, an important step towards estimating the future impact of climate change on permafrost-dependent ecosystems.
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