| 1. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
ViEWS : A political violence early-warning system
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Journal of Peace Research. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-3433 .- 1460-3578. ; 56:2, s. 155-174
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.
|
|
| 2. |
-
Votes, money and violence : political parties and elections in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 2007
-
Samlingsverk (redaktörskap) (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following the (re-)introduction of multiparty systems in Africa in the early 1990s, third and fourth elections in Africa's new democracies and hybrid regimes are now being seen. Although there is a large and growing literature on democracy and elections in Africa, parties and party systems have hitherto not been the focus of research, which may be surprising given their central role in a liberal democracy. The early works from the 1960s and 1970s provide neither a sound conceptual nor empirical basis. Research on political parties and party systems in Africa is still in its infancy. Various contributions in this volume address the theoretical and conceptual challenges provided by the African parties and party systems with their particular features of weak organisation, informal relationships dominated by 'big men' and clientelism within a neopatrimonial setting. Others raise the crucial question of representation in relation to ethnicity, civil society and gender, or look into the empirical relationship between party systems and democracy. Further chapters ask questions about the appropriate electoral system for the multiethnic context in Africa and deal with the problem of electoral system reform. Finally, there are chapters which focus on the neglected area of electoral violence, and the moral role of money and vote buying is scrutinized through a case study. An important conclusion is that party research in Africa needs more conceptual clarity as well as empirical research particularly on party organisation, voting behaviour, and the role of ethnicity.
|
|
| 3. |
- Wahman, Michael, et al.
(författare)
-
Electoral Rentierism? The Cross-National and Subnational Effect of Oil on Electoral Competitiveness in Multiparty Autocracies
- 2015
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Building on theoretical insights from research on the rentier state and the "resource curse," several studies have supported the argument that oil hinders democracy. However, previous research on the rentier state has neglected the global surge of multiparty autocracies or "electoral authoritarian" regimes since the end of the Cold War. No systematic study has been carried out on the question of whether or not and how oil affects electoral contests in nondemocratic regimes. In this paper we contribute to filling this gap by combing the literature on multiparty autocracy and the political economy of the rentier state. As oil production creates substantial, nontransparent revenue streams to national and subnational governments, we hypothesize that oil production has a negative effect on electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies. Consequently, the democratic "resource curse" emphasized in earlier work on the rentier state is likely to persist even after the introduction of multipartyism in cases where oil production predates democratic institutions. The paper tests the hypothesis cross‐nationally, using data on all multiparty elections held in the world in the period 1975–2010, and subnationally, using a new data set on subnational election results and oil production in Nigeria. Our results confirm that oil impedes electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies.
|
|
