| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Graham, R. Robert, et al.
(författare)
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Three functional variants of IFN regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) define risk and protective haplotypes for human lupus
- 2007
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 104:16, s. 6758-6763
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systematic genome-wide studies to map genomic regions associated with human diseases are becoming more practical. Increasingly, efforts will be focused on the identification of the specific functional variants responsible for the disease. The challenges of identifying causal variants include the need for complete ascertainment of genetic variants and the need to consider the possibility of multiple causal alleles. We recently reported that risk of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is strongly associated with a common SNP in IFN regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), and that this variant altered spicing in a way that might provide a functional explanation for the reproducible association to SLE risk. Here, by resequencing and genotyping in patients with SLE, we find evidence for three functional alleles of IRF5: the previously described exon 1B splice site variant, a 30-bp in-frame insertion/deletion variant of exon 6 that alters a proline-, glutamic acid-, serine- and threonine-rich domain region, and a variant in a conserved polyA+ signal sequence that alters the length of the 3' UTR and stability of IRF5 mRNAs. Haplotypes of these three variants define at least three distinct levels of risk to SLE. Understanding how combinations of variants influence IRF5 function may offer etiological and therapeutic insights in SLE; more generally, IRF5 and SLE illustrates how multiple common variants of the same gene can together influence risk of common disease.
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| 5. |
- Abolfathi, Bela, et al.
(författare)
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The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 253:31
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg2, as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg2. We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.
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| 6. |
- Asselbergs, Folkert W., et al.
(författare)
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Large-Scale Gene-Centric Meta-analysis across 32 Studies Identifies Multiple Lipid Loci
- 2012
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Ingår i: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9297. ; 91:5, s. 823-838
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified many SNPs underlying variations in plasma-lipid levels. We explore whether additional loci associated with plasma-lipid phenotypes, such as high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides (TGs), can be identified by a dense gene-centric approach. Our meta-analysis of 32 studies in 66,240 individuals of European ancestry was based on the custom similar to 50,000 SNP genotyping array (the ITMAT-Broad-CARe array) covering similar to 2,000 candidate genes. SNP-lipid associations were replicated either in a cohort comprising an additional 24,736 samples or within the Global Lipid Genetic Consortium. We identified four, six, ten, and four unreported SNPs in established lipid genes for HDL-C, LDL-C, TC, and TGs, respectively. We also identified several lipid-related SNPs in previously unreported genes: DGAT2, HCAR2, GPIHBP1, PPARG, and FTO for HDL-C; SOCS3, APOH, SPTY2D1, BRCA2, and VLDLR for LDL-C; SOCS3, UGT1A1, BRCA2, UBE3B, FCGR2A, CHUK, and INSIG2 for TC; and SERPINF2, C4B, GCK, GATA4, INSR, and LPAL2 for TGs. The proportion of explained phenotypic variance in the subset of studies providing individual-level data was 9.9% for HDL-C, 9.5% for LDL-C, 10.3% for TC, and 8.0% for TGs. This large meta-analysis of lipid phenotypes with the use of a dense gene-centric approach identified multiple SNPs not previously described in established lipid genes and several previously unknown loci. The explained phenotypic variance from this approach was comparable to that from a meta-analysis of GWAS data, suggesting that a focused genotyping approach can further increase the understanding of heritability of plasma lipids.
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| 7. |
- Bauer, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Association between solar insolation and a history of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of psychiatric research. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-1379 .- 0022-3956. ; 113, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many international studies, rates of completed suicide and suicide attempts have a seasonal pattern that peaks in spring or summer. This exploratory study investigated the association between solar insolation and a history of suicide attempt in patients with bipolar I disorder. Solar insolation is the amount of electromagnetic energy from the Sun striking a surface area on Earth. Data were collected previously from 5536 patients with bipolar I disorder at 50 collection sites in 32 countries at a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres. Suicide related data were available for 3365 patients from 310 onset locations in 51 countries. 1047 (31.1%) had a history of suicide attempt. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempt and the ratio of mean winter solar insolation/mean summer solar insolation. This ratio is smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. This ratio is largest near the equator where there is relatively little variation in the insolation over the year. Other variables in the model that were positively associated with suicide attempt were being female, a history of alcohol or substance abuse, and being in a younger birth cohort. Living in a country with a state-sponsored religion decreased the association. (All estimated coefficients p<0.01). In summary, living in locations with large changes in solar insolation between winter and summer may be associated with increased suicide attempts in patients with bipolar disorder. Further investigation of the impacts of solar insolation on the course of bipolar disorder is needed.
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| 8. |
- Bianco, Federica B., et al.
(författare)
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Optimization of the Observing Cadence for the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time : A Pioneering Process of Community-focused Experimental Design
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 258:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a ground-based astronomical facility under construction, a joint project of the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy, designed to conduct a multipurpose 10 yr optical survey of the Southern Hemisphere sky: the Legacy Survey of Space and Time. Significant flexibility in survey strategy remains within the constraints imposed by the core science goals of probing dark energy and dark matter, cataloging the solar system, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. The survey's massive data throughput will be transformational for many other astrophysics domains and Rubin's data access policy sets the stage for a huge community of potential users. To ensure that the survey science potential is maximized while serving as broad a community as possible, Rubin Observatory has involved the scientific community at large in the process of setting and refining the details of the observing strategy. The motivation, history, and decision-making process of this strategy optimization are detailed in this paper, giving context to the science-driven proposals and recommendations for the survey strategy included in this Focus Issue.
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| 9. |
- Farnocchia, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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International Asteroid Warning Network Timing Campaign: 2019 XS
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Planetary Science Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 2632-3338. ; 3:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As part of the International Asteroid Warning Network's observational exercises, we conducted a campaign to observe near-Earth asteroid 2019 XS around its close approach to Earth on 2021 November 9. The goal of the campaign was to characterize errors in the observation times reported to the Minor Planet Center, which become an increasingly important consideration as astrometric accuracy improves and more fast-moving asteroids are observed. As part of the exercise, a total of 957 astrometric observations of 2019 XS during the encounter were reported and subsequently were analyzed to obtain the corresponding residuals. While the timing errors are typically smaller than 1 s, the reported times appear to be negatively biased, i.e., they are generally earlier than they should be. We also compared the observer-provided position uncertainty with the cross-track residuals, which are independent of timing errors. A large fraction of the estimated uncertainties appear to be optimistic, especially when <0 2. We compiled individual reports for each observer to help identify and remove the root cause of any possible timing error and improve the uncertainty quantification process. We suggest possible sources of timing errors and describe a simple procedure to derive reliable, conservative position uncertainties.
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| 10. |
- Farnocchia, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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The Second International Asteroid Warning Network Timing Campaign: 2005 LW3
- 2023
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Ingår i: The Planetary Science Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 2632-3338. ; 4:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Earth close approach of near-Earth asteroid 2005 LW3 on 2022 November 23 represented a good opportunity for a second observing campaign to test the timing accuracy of astrometric observation. With 82 participating stations, the International Asteroid Warning Network collected 1046 observations of 2005 LW3 around the time of the close approach. Compared to the previous timing campaign targeting 2019 XS, some individual observers were able to significantly improve the accuracy of their reported observation times. In particular, U.S. surveys achieved good timing performance. However, no broad, systematic improvement was achieved compared to the previous campaign, with an overall negative bias persisting among the different observers. The calibration of observing times and the mitigation of timing errors should be important future considerations for observers and orbit computers, respectively.
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