| 1. |
- Bazilian, M., et al.
(författare)
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Accelerating the global transformation to 21st century power systems
- 2013
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Ingår i: Electricity Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1040-6190 .- 1873-6874. ; 26:6, s. 39-51
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nations and regions need to share lessons about the best ways to create enabling policies, regulations, and markets that get the most social benefit out of power systems and incent the necessary investments.
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| 2. |
- Clack, Christopher T. M., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar
- 2017
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : NATL ACAD SCIENCES. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 114:26, s. 6722-6727
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49): 15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055", with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.
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| 3. |
- Lee, Jordy, et al.
(författare)
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Reviewing the material and metal security of low-carbon energy transitions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-0321. ; 124, s. 109789-109789
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global transition to a low-carbon economy will involve changes in material markets and supply chains on a hitherto unknown scale and scope. With these changes come numerous challenges and opportunities related to supply chain security and sustainability. To help support decision-making as well as future research, this study employs a problem-oriented perspective while reviewing academic publications, technical reports, legal documents, and published industry data to highlight the increasingly interconnected nature of material needs and geopolitical change. The paper considers a broad set of issues including technologies, material supplies, investment strategies, communal concerns, innovations, modeling considerations, and policy trends to help contextualize policy decisions and regulatory responses. Policy options are outlined for each topical section, as well as areas for further research. Together, these recommendations serve to help guide the complex, interdisciplinary approach to materials required for a low-carbon transition.
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| 4. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
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Energy access scenarios to 2030 for the power sector in sub-Saharan Africa
- 2012
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Ingår i: Utilities Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0957-1787 .- 1878-4356. ; 20:1, s. 1-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required - one aspect of the many inputs required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access - even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.
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| 5. |
- Labordena, M., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of political and economical barriers for concentrating solar power in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 102, s. 52-72
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) needs additional affordable and reliable electricity to fuel its social and economic development. Ideally, all of this new supply is carbon-neutral. The potentials for renewables in SSA suffice for any conceivable demand, but the wind power and photovoltaic resources are intermittent and difficult to integrate in the weak electricity grids. Here, we investigate the potential for supplying SSA demand centers with dispatchable electricity from concentrating solar power (CSP) stations equipped with thermal storage. We show that, given anticipated cost reductions from technological improvements, power from CSP could be competitive with coal power in Southern Africa by 2025; but in most SSA countries, power from CSP may not be competitive. We also show that variations in risk across countries influences the cost of power from CSP more than variations in solar resources. If policies to de-risk CSP investment to financing cost levels found in industrialized countries were successfully implemented, power from CSP could become cheaper than coal power by 2025 in all SSA countries. Policies to increase institutional capacity and cooperation among SSA countries could reduce costs further. With dedicated policy measures, therefore, CSP could become an economically attractive electricity option for all SSA countries.
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| 6. |
- Potter van Loon, Albertine, et al.
(författare)
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Atypical variability in TMY-based power systems
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - : ELSEVIER. - 0973-0826 .- 2352-4669. ; 54, s. 139-147
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the results of an analysis that explores how Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) informed power system models perform when exposed to atypical variability. A simplified power system planning model is tested for two case studies in Guinea-Bissau and Turkey. A TMY proxy is compared against 24-year timeseries datasets containing hourly resolution solar PV and wind capacity factor data. Results show that unforeseen shortages in VRE generation and additional expenses are approximately 36 GWh and 10 million USD for Guinea-Bissau, and 92 GWh and 232,000 million TL for Turkey. Moreover, Turkey faces unmet demand of up to 50 TWh. For Turkey, unmet demand is penalized at 5000 TL/MWh, explaining the high cost increase. The underperformance of the TMY-based simulated system also is responsible for 45.77 million kg of unforeseen CO2 emissions in the case of Guinea-Bissau.
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| 7. |
- Welsch, Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling elements of Smart Grids - Enhancing the OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code
- 2012
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 46:1, s. 337-350
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 'Smart Grids' are expected to help facilitate a better integration of distributed storage and demand response options into power systems and markets. Quantifying the associated system benefits may provide valuable design and policy insights. Yet many existing energy system models are not able to depict various critical features associated with Smart Grids in a single comprehensive framework. These features may for example include grid stability issues in a system with several flexible demand types and storage options to help balance a high penetration of renewable energy. Flexible and accessible tools have the potential to fill this niche. This paper expands on the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). It describes how 'blocks of functionality' may be added to represent variability in electricity generation, a prioritisation of demand types, shifting demand, and storage options. The paper demonstrates the flexibility and ease-of-use of OSeMOSYS with regard to modifications of its code. It may therefore serve as a useful test-bed for new functionality in tools with wide-spread use and larger applications, such as MESSAGE, TIMES, MARKAL, or LEAP. As with the core code of OSeMOSYS, the functional blocks described in this paper are available in the public domain.
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| 8. |
- Welsch, Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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Smart and Just Grids for sub-Saharan Africa : Exploring options
- 2013
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Ingår i: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-0321 .- 1879-0690. ; 20, s. 336-352
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2009, an estimated 585 million people had no access to electricity services in sub-Saharan Africa. Unlike many other regions of the world, under current assumptions, that figure is expected to rise significantly to about 652 million by 2030-an unsustainable and unacceptable situation. Knowing of the intrinsic linkages between access to energy services and development, national governments and regional organisations have identified the urgent need for accelerated electrification rates. Some of the established and emerging concepts, systems and technologies grouped under the term 'Smart Grids' may offer an important contribution to achieving universal access to electricity. We argue that these Smart Grid advances may enable sub-Saharan African countries to leapfrog elements of traditional power systems and accelerate and improve electrification efforts. We introduce the notion of Just Grids to reflect the need for power systems to contribute towards equitable and inclusive economic and social development without marginalising the poor. The paper reviews the literature, and identifies specific options that could be implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. After selecting criteria that focus on potential impact as well as requirements for their implementation, a qualitative first-pass assessment of the potential of these options is made. This paper provides support for policy development, and suggests areas for further, more detailed research.
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| 9. |
- Welsch, Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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Supporting security and adequacy in future energy systems : The need to enhance long-term energy system models to better treat issues related to variability
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Energy Research. - : Hindawi Limited. - 0363-907X .- 1099-114X. ; 39:3, s. 377-396
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the shares of variable renewable generation in power systems increase, so does the need for, inter alia, flexible balancing mechanisms. These mechanisms help ensure the reliable operation of the electricity system by compensating for fluctuations in supply or demand. However, a focus on short-term balancing is sometimes neglected when assessing future capacity expansions with long-term energy system models. Developing heuristics that can simulate short-term system issues is one way of augmenting the functionality of such models. To this end, we present an extended functionality to the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), which captures the impacts of short-term variability of supply and demand on system adequacy and security. Specifically, we modelled the system adequacy as the share of wind energy is increased. Further, we enable the modelling of operating reserve capacities required for balancing services. The dynamics introduced through these model enhancements are presented in an application case study. This application indicates that introducing short-term constraints in long-term energy models may considerably influence the dispatch of power plants, capacity investments, and, ultimately, the policy recommendations derived from such models.
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