| 1. |
- Clack, Christopher T. M., et al.
(författare)
-
Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : NATL ACAD SCIENCES. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 114:26, s. 6722-6727
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49): 15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055", with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.
|
|
| 2. |
- Abbott, Michele, et al.
(författare)
-
Examining the food-energy-water and conflict nexus
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Current Opinion in Chemical Engineering. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-3398. ; 18, s. 55-60
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is growing evidence of a strong linkage or 'nexus' between conflict - both domestic and international - and food, energy, and water (FEW) resources and services. This article demonstrates a positive, significant correlation between two measures, FEW security and political stability, and reviews the evidence for how each of these three types of resource insecurities affects political and social stability. We describe what is known about the FEW-conflict nexus itself, note that remaining knowledge gaps include evidence on developing governance structures and preparing for climate change, and examine the types of policies that countries and international donors might take to help mitigate the role that FEW can play in affecting stability.
|
|
| 3. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
-
Considering power system planning in fragile and conflict states
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - : Elsevier. - 0973-0826 .- 2352-4669. ; 32, s. 110-120
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Traditional methods of energy planning are likely to provide results that may be inappropriate in fragile and conflict-prone countries. The risks of violence and damage, or significant delays and cancellations in infrastructure development, are rife in these states. Thus, least-cost planning processes must explicitly address the inherent risks. While there are numerous statistical methods for dealing with decision making under uncertainty, few of them have been applied to power system planning and tailored for these situations. We present a general theoretical framing of the issue and illustrate application of a very simple method to a case study of the Republic of South Sudan. We find that, in general, the resilience aspects, combined with modular and incremental benefits of distributed generation technologies and systems, emerge as attractive options if the various risks of infrastructure development are included in modelling techniques.
|
|
| 4. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
-
Considering the energy, water and food nexus : Towards an integrated modelling approach
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 39:12, s. 7896-7906
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The areas of energy, water and food policy have numerous interwoven concerns ranging from ensuring access to services, to environmental impacts to price volatility. These issues manifest in very different ways in each of the three "spheres", but often the impacts are closely related. Identifying these interrelationships a priori is of great importance to help target synergies and avoid potential tensions. Systems thinking is required to address such a wide swath of possible topics. This paper briefly describes some of the linkages at a high-level of aggregation - primarily from a developing country perspective - and via case studies, to arrive at some promising directions for addressing the nexus. To that end, we also present the attributes of a modelling framework that specifically addresses the nexus, and can thus serve to inform more effective national policies and regulations. While environmental issues are normally the 'cohesive principle' from which the three areas are considered jointly, the enormous inequalities arising from a lack of access suggest that economic and security-related issues may be stronger motivators of change. Finally, consideration of the complex interactions will require new institutional capacity both in industrialised and developing countries.
|
|
| 5. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
-
Energy access scenarios to 2030 for the power sector in sub-Saharan Africa
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Utilities Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0957-1787 .- 1878-4356. ; 20:1, s. 1-16
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several 'high-level', transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required - one aspect of the many inputs required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access - even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.
|
|
| 6. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
-
Interactions between energy security and climate change : A focus on developing countries
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 39:6, s. 3750-3756
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We briefly consider the tensions between climate change and energy security policy imperatives, and highlight some concepts that may bring additional clarity to decision-making at the nexus of the two areas. We focus on developing countries and use the case of the Medupi supercritical coal plant in South Africa. The justification for the plant's construction stemmed from an Integrated Resource Planning process informed by South Africa's national utility. Often, as in the case of South Africa, there are tensions not easily captured in quantitative algorithms between, inter alia, a lack of access to electricity by millions of people (and associated welfare losses) and greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. It is difficult to identify any formal processes that have prioritised climate change considerations over those of energy access. Thus, it becomes imperative to have a clear understanding of the consequences of this reality when considering power system expansion. We find that the processes often employed do not provide an entirely satisfactory precedent for future planning analyses, and the justifications do not adequately reflect the complexity of the decision space. Finally, we highlight some options by which these tools might be enhanced in areas including explicit and formal consideration of risk.
|
|
| 7. |
- Bazilian, Morgan, et al.
(författare)
-
Open source software and crowdsourcing for energy analysis
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 49, s. 149-153
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Informed energy decision making requires effective software, high-quality input data, and a suitably trained user community. Developing these resources can be expensive and time consuming. Even when data and tools are intended for public re-use they often come with technical, legal, economic and social barriers that make them difficult to adopt, adapt and combine for use in new contexts. We focus on the promise of open, publically accessible software and data as well as crowdsourcing techniques to develop robust energy analysis tools that can deliver crucial, policy-relevant insight, particularly in developing countries, where planning resources are highly constrained-and the need to adapt these resources and methods to the local context is high. We survey existing research, which argues that these techniques can produce high-quality results, and also explore the potential role that linked, open data can play in both supporting the modelling process and in enhancing public engagement with energy issues.
|
|
| 8. |
|
|
| 9. |
- Chattopadhyay, D., et al.
(författare)
-
Building climate resilience into power systems plans : Reflections on potential ways forward for Bangladesh
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Electricity Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1040-6190 .- 1873-6874. ; 29:7, s. 32-41
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The consideration of climate resilience in power system planning and operations by utilities around the world is very limited to date. This article assimilates some of the initial thoughts developed as part of a World Bank project on climate resilience for Bangladesh. It briefly reflects on the current literature, and focuses on the specific flooding risks faced in Bangladesh to illuminate the way forward to enhance planning practices.
|
|
| 10. |
- Chattopadhyay, D., et al.
(författare)
-
More power, less cost : Transitioning up the solar energy ladder from home systems to mini-grids
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Electricity Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1040-6190 .- 1873-6874. ; 28:3, s. 41-50
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Providing access to electricity for the roughly 3 billion people who currently have no access or limited access to reliable service is a fundamental social and economic development challenge. A significant part of this population lives far away from the power grid, mostly in rural areas, where mini-grids could go far in meeting this enormous demand.
|
|
