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- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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- Farhadfar, Nosha, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Pretransplantation Renal Dysfunction on Outcomes after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation
- 2021
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Ingår i: Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. - : Elsevier. - 2666-6375 .- 2666-6367. ; 27:5, s. 410-422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Renal dysfunction is a recognized risk factor for mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT), yet our understanding of the effect of different levels of renal dysfunction at time of transplantation on outcomes remains limited. This study explores the impact of different degrees of renal dysfunction on HCT outcomes and examines whether the utilization of incremental degrees of renal dysfunction based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) improve the predictability of the hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index (HCT-CI). The study population included 2 cohorts: cohort 1, comprising patients age >= 40 years who under went alloHCT for treatment of hematologic malignancies between 2008 and 2016 (n = 13,505; cohort selected given a very low incidence of renal dysfunction in individuals age <40 years), and cohort 2, comprising patients on dialysis at the time of HCT (n = 46). eGFR was measured using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) method. The patients in cohort 1 were assigned into 4 categories-eGFR >= 90 mL/min (n = 7062), eGFR 60 to 89 mL/min (n = 5264), eGFR 45 to 59 mL/min (n = 897), and eGFR <45 mL/min (n=282)-to assess the impact of degree of renal dysfunction on transplantation outcomes. Transplantation outcomes in patients on dialysis at the time of alloHCT were analyzed separately. eGFR <60 mL/min was associated with an increased risk for nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and requirement for dialysis post-HCT. Compared with the eGFR >= 90 group, the hazard ratio (HR) for NRM was 1.46 (P = .0001) for the eGFR 45 to 59 mL/min group and 1.74 (P = .004) for the eGFR <45 mL/min group. Compared with the eGFR >= 90 mL/min group, the eGFR 45 to 59 mL/min group (HR, 2.45; P < .0001) and the eGFR <45 mL/min group (HR, 3.09; P < .0001) had a higher risk of renal failure necessitating dialysis after alloHCT. In addition, eGFR <45 mL/min was associated with an increased overall mortality (HR, 1.63; P < .0001). An eGFR-based revised HCT-CI was also developed and shown to be predictive of overall survival (OS) and NRM, with predictive performance similar to the original HCT-CI. Among 46 patients on dialysis at alloHCT, the 1-year probability of OS was 20%, and that of NRM was 67%. The degree of pretransplantation renal dysfunction is an independent predictor of OS, NRM, and probability of needing dialysis after alloHCT. An eGFR-based HCT-CI is a validated index for predicting outcomes in adults with hematologic malignancies undergoing alloHCT. The outcomes of alloHCT recipients on dialysis are dismal; therefore, one should strongly weigh the significant risks of being on hemodialysis as a factor in determining alloHCT candidacy.
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- Forslund, Sofia K., et al.
(författare)
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Combinatorial, additive and dose-dependent drug–microbiome associations
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 600:7889, s. 500-505
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During the transition from a healthy state to cardiometabolic disease, patients become heavily medicated, which leads to an increasingly aberrant gut microbiome and serum metabolome, and complicates biomarker discovery1–5. Here, through integrated multi-omics analyses of 2,173 European residents from the MetaCardis cohort, we show that the explanatory power of drugs for the variability in both host and gut microbiome features exceeds that of disease. We quantify inferred effects of single medications, their combinations as well as additive effects, and show that the latter shift the metabolome and microbiome towards a healthier state, exemplified in synergistic reduction in serum atherogenic lipoproteins by statins combined with aspirin, or enrichment of intestinal Roseburia by diuretic agents combined with beta-blockers. Several antibiotics exhibit a quantitative relationship between the number of courses prescribed and progression towards a microbiome state that is associated with the severity of cardiometabolic disease. We also report a relationship between cardiometabolic drug dosage, improvement in clinical markers and microbiome composition, supporting direct drug effects. Taken together, our computational framework and resulting resources enable the disentanglement of the effects of drugs and disease on host and microbiome features in multimedicated individuals. Furthermore, the robust signatures identified using our framework provide new hypotheses for drug–host–microbiome interactions in cardiometabolic disease.
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- Molinaro, Antonio, et al.
(författare)
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Imidazole propionate is increased in diabetes and associated with dietary patterns and altered microbial ecology
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microbiota-host-diet interactions contribute to the development of metabolic diseases. Imidazole propionate is a novel microbially produced metabolite from histidine, which impairs glucose metabolism. Here, we show that subjects with prediabetes and diabetes in the MetaCardis cohort from three European countries have elevated serum imidazole propionate levels. Furthermore, imidazole propionate levels were increased in subjects with low bacterial gene richness and Bacteroides 2 enterotype, which have previously been associated with obesity. The Bacteroides 2 enterotype was also associated with increased abundance of the genes involved in imidazole propionate biosynthesis from dietary histidine. Since patients and controls did not differ in their histidine dietary intake, the elevated levels of imidazole propionate in type 2 diabetes likely reflects altered microbial metabolism of histidine, rather than histidine intake per se. Thus the microbiota may contribute to type 2 diabetes by generating imidazole propionate that can modulate host inflammation and metabolism.
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